EPAC: ALVIN - Remnants

[Nancy Smar]

93E.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.11.5N.97W

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 93, 2019062212, , BEST, 0, 115N, 960W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 93, 2019062218, , BEST, 0, 115N, 965W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 93, 2019062300, , BEST, 0, 115N, 970W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 93, 2019062306, , BEST, 0, 115N, 973W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 93, 2019062312, , BEST, 0, 115N, 975W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[Nancy Smar]

.FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
8 TO 9 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
12N100W 1008 MB. WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 06N90W
TO 10N89W TO 12N92W TO 13N97W TO 10N104W TO 07N100W TO 06N90W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
14N104W 1005 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. WITHIN 90
NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred
miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with
a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the
week while the system moves west-northwestward away from the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the
system moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro now completely backing off.

But virtually every other model develops this.

[NotSparta]

12z Euro now completely backing off.

But virtually every other model fevelops this.

Makes sense, since the GFS develops, therefore the Euro cannot

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro now completely backing off.

But virtually every other model fevelops this.

Makes sense, since the GFS develops, therefore the Euro cannot

Still strong EPS for a TD/TS to develop out of it. I mean even the EPS control detects it. We'll see what happens.

[Kingarabian]

Our boy NotSparta updated his website to show ASCAT passes on Invest areas:

https://cyclonicwx.com/ascat/

[NotSparta]

Our boy NotSparta updated his website to show ASCAT passes on Invest areas:

https://cyclonicwx.com/ascat/

Thanks for the shoutout King!

You may notice a few bugs around, but I am working on fixing those.

Incorrect graphics in some spots can be remedied by changing the time around on the dropdown

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1142896977702768640

[Chris90]

Our boy NotSparta updated his website to show ASCAT passes on Invest areas:

https://cyclonicwx.com/ascat/

Thanks for the shoutout King!

You may notice a few bugs around, but I am working on fixing those.

Incorrect graphics in some spots can be remedied by changing the time around on the dropdown

What a cool new feature. The site looks really good. I have to say, the SST graphics are some of my favorites. I like that there's a 15-day change graphic as opposed to the 7-day change so many other sites have. I also love the ENSO region option you have, since it encompasses both the northern and southern hemispheres of the ENSO regions in one graphic. Other sites cut off at the equator and I find it frustrating. Keep up the good work!

Back to 93E.

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located a few
hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become a
little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle of the week while the system moves
west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[NDG]

Still not much love love from the Euro.
GFS only develops into a weak TS. It is moving into an area where high pressure has been dominating so far and SSTs are cooler than last year.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1143113797416042497

[Yellow Evan]

With lack of ECMWF support, I don't have much confidence.

[Kingarabian]

Doing a better job of building convection over thr COC. But yeah I have little hope for it as well at this point. Only bullish model was the 12Z UKMET.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1143193098375389184

[Kingarabian]

It certainly doesn't look too bad. Lots of curvature and some decent outflow channels.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1143266536611729408

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS and 18z ICON backing off or very weak at best. Fairly good shot @ this being a TD not too sure about it being Alvin unless it over performs.