EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#221 Postby Chris90 » Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I wouldn't doubt its a Cat.5 if there was recon. But I think Barbara will fall victim like previous EPAC systems where they're stuck in this gray area of likely being a Cat.5 but there's not enough satellite estimates to entice the NHC to make that call.


Yeah, I don't think she's going to make Cat 5 officially, especially not when her official intensity right now is 120kts from the last update. I'm looking forward to things like CYGNSS becoming fully operational and other advancements with weather monitoring technology. 15-20 years from now will be a different story, especially if/when we get a year like 2015 or 2018. I'm sure with better methods of measuring surface winds with tools other than recon, years like those in future will bring about an increase in the Cat 5 classifications for the EPAC/CPAC.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#222 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:10 pm

Chris90 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:I wouldn't doubt its a Cat.5 if there was recon. But I think Barbara will fall victim like previous EPAC systems where they're stuck in this gray area of likely being a Cat.5 but there's not enough satellite estimates to entice the NHC to make that call.


Yeah, I don't think she's going to make Cat 5 officially, especially not when her official intensity right now is 120kts from the last update. I'm looking forward to things like CYGNSS becoming fully operational and other advancements with weather monitoring technology. 15-20 years from now will be a different story, especially if/when we get a year like 2015 or 2018. I'm sure with better methods of measuring surface winds with tools other than recon, years like those in future will bring about an increase in the Cat 5 classifications for the EPAC/CPAC.


I think with using those tools in another decade or 2 will help EPAC reanalysis upgrade a bunch of EPAC systems from the beginning of the 2000s til now.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#223 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:30 pm

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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#224 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:47 pm


Cycloneye this is not something we should be seeing this early in the same season. Barbara has really challenged the displays put on Hector, Lane, and Walaka from last year and those systems formed later.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#225 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:58 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2019 Time : 222033 UTC
Lat : 12:57:36 N Lon : 123:45:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 925.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +20.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.6C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#226 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:00 pm

Just wow. This better be given at least 135kts.

Image
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#227 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:02 pm

Looking at BD, this is probably T7.0 on the latest frame. Needs to sustain itself till 0z, which is easier said than done.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#228 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:06 pm

No clear signs of an ERC in the past 2 hours:
Image
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#229 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:09 pm

She is a thing of beauty right now and no danger to land is perfect. Is she at her peak or are conditions more favorable ahead of her.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#230 Postby Chris90 » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:19 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:She is a thing of beauty right now and no danger to land is perfect. Is she at her peak or are conditions more favorable ahead of her.


She's most likely at her peak now or within the next 6 hours if her presentation improves anymore. After today/tonight her environment will become less favorable as she continues to track towards the CPAC.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#231 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:28 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2019 Time : 225033 UTC
Lat : 13:00:36 N Lon : 123:49:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 925.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +21.2C Cloud Region Temp : -71.9C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#232 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:32 pm

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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#233 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:44 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Looking at BD, this is probably T7.0 on the latest frame. Needs to sustain itself till 0z, which is easier said than done.


So far seems to be holding through at least for now. Meets thickness requirements overall even if there are a few B spots over the CDO on Bd.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#234 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:45 pm

Won't take much for it to become a cat5 if it isn't already one. ;)
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#235 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:47 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Looking at BD, this is probably T7.0 on the latest frame. Needs to sustain itself till 0z, which is easier said than done.


So far seems to be holding through at least for now. Meets thickness requirements overall even if there are a few B spots over the CDO on Bd.

Inb4 SAB comes in with a 6.0.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#236 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:51 pm

Think the W side of the storm is fading a bit. Need a good snapshot to see if this meets thickness requirements or not.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#237 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:51 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2019 Time : 232033 UTC
Lat : 13:02:23 N Lon : 123:55:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 925.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +20.7C Cloud Region Temp : -72.2C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#238 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:56 pm

30 minutes left before SAB and TAFB decide its fate.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#239 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:57 pm

Image

This meets thickness requirements I think but it's very close to not doing so. This is like the most EPAC thing ever.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Hurricane

#240 Postby Tailspin » Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:00 pm

Image

Waiting for a erc and the centre to fall in, banding to tuck in and see a truck tyre.
Last edited by Tailspin on Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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