EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

Satcon up to 136kts:

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 07022147
SATCON: MSLP = 932 hPa MSW = 136 knots

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/VTmTooh.gif[//url]

This meets thickness requirements I think but it's very close to not doing so. This is like the most EPAC thing ever.

Storms in the EPAC are plagued of being there but not there.

[Yellow Evan]

No appreciable changes from 2335z to 2355z. SAB will grade 2350z since they graded 1750z. This is really close; I don't have the tools to do more than just eyeball atm and given an educated guess.

[Kingarabian]

No appreciable changes from 2335z to 2355z. SAB will grade 2350z since they graded 1750z. This is really close; I don't have the tools to do more than just eyeball atm and given an educated guess.

Would this be the earliest Cat.5 in the Epac since Dora 2011?

[Yellow Evan]

No appreciable changes from 2335z to 2355z. SAB will grade 2350z since they graded 1750z. This is really close; I don't have the tools to do more than just eyeball atm and given an educated guess.

Would this be the earliest Cat.5 in the Epac since Dora 2011?

Dora wasn't even a Cat 5.

IF this makes it to 140, would be earliest since Celia 10 and like 3rd earliest overall.

[Ntxw]

Just give it already . Honestly though, I think most agreed 120kts was probably the common choice for the upper bound many guessed for this storm. Certainly outdid that.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2019 Time : 235033 UTC
Lat : 13:04:11 N Lon : 124:02:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 925.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +21.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[AnnularCane]

It would be kind of cool for my namesake to become a 5 but I probably won't be all that disappointed if she doesn't. She's doing great regardless.

[Kingarabian]

No appreciable changes from 2335z to 2355z. SAB will grade 2350z since they graded 1750z. This is really close; I don't have the tools to do more than just eyeball atm and given an educated guess.

Would this be the earliest Cat.5 in the Epac since Dora 2011?

Dora wasn't even a Cat 5.

IF this makes it to 140, would be earliest since Celia 10 and like 3rd earliest overall.

My bad Celia 2010***

[Yellow Evan]

03/0000 UTC 13.0N 124.1W T6.5/6.5 BARBARA -- East Pacific

[Kingarabian]

03/0000 UTC 13.0N 124.1W T6.5/6.5 BARBARA -- East Pacific

Welp

[Ntxw]

[Nancy Smar]

TXPZ21 KNES 030022
TCSENP

A. 02E (BARBARA)

B. 03/0000Z

C. 13.0N

D. 124.1W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND
EMBEDDED IN B FOR A DT=6.5 AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=6.0
PT=6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[cycloneye]

Closer view.

[Kingarabian]

Closer view.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/rpr3PDO.jpg[url]

Quite a few Mesovorts in the past few hours

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 02, 2019070300, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1240W, 135, 933, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1009, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 02, 2019070218, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1227W, 125, 942, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 1009, 210, 15, 145, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, D, 12, NEQ, 300, 270, 150, 210, genesis-num, 008,
EP, 02, 2019070300, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1240W, 135, 933, HU, 34, NEQ, 140, 160, 100, 120, 1009, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,
EP, 02, 2019070300, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1240W, 135, 933, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 70, 40, 60, 1009, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,
EP, 02, 2019070300, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1240W, 135, 933, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1009, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,

Wondering if TAFB was 7.0 and SAB actually cost us a Cat 5...

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 02, 201907030000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1300N, 12410W, , 1, 127, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JF, VIM, 1, 6565 /////, , , GOES17, LLCC, T, DT=6.5 BO EYE MET=6.0 PT=6.5 FTBO DT
EP, 02, 201907030000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1300N, 12410W, , 1, 140, 2, 921, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, BR, VI, 1, 7070 /////, , , GOES17, CSC, T,

Guess I'm right

[cycloneye]

Ventrice says annular.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1146218101874352128

[Kingarabian]

EP, 02, 2019070218, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1227W, 125, 942, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 1009, 210, 15, 145, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, D, 12, NEQ, 300, 270, 150, 210, genesis-num, 008,
EP, 02, 2019070300, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1240W, 135, 933, HU, 34, NEQ, 140, 160, 100, 120, 1009, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,
EP, 02, 2019070300, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1240W, 135, 933, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 70, 40, 60, 1009, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,
EP, 02, 2019070300, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1240W, 135, 933, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1009, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BARBARA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,

Wondering if TAFB was 7.0 and SAB actually cost us a Cat 5...

I think if it keeps it structure, Stewart will come through.