EPAC: ERICK - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Much higher shear being diagnosed and forecast in the short term. Could result in a lower peak than anticipated but much like Flossie, the shear isn't that strong.

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ERICK EP062019 07/30/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 69 69 67 61 54 45 38 31 30 29
V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 69 69 67 61 54 45 38 31 30 29
V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 68 68 65 60 53 46 38 33 29 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 15 14 14 12 20 27 32 31 27 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -6 -5 0 11 4 1 -1 -3 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 256 271 290 290 300 299 270 264 266 266 263 267 270
SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.4 28.1 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 146 144 142 139 136 138 146 140 140 138 139
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7
700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 59 58 56 53 55 54 53 53 57 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 22 21 20 19 17 14 13 9 10 8
850 MB ENV VOR 10 20 29 24 21 1 -3 -7 -6 -8 0 8 16
200 MB DIV 43 27 28 43 51 18 14 7 9 13 45 40 35
700-850 TADV -2 -6 -6 -6 -3 0 7 2 4 4 4 1 3
LAND (KM) 1824 1676 1530 1390 1251 1030 806 644 492 331 349 461 516
LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.7 15.3 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.4
LONG(DEG W) 139.3 140.7 142.1 143.3 144.6 146.5 148.6 150.3 152.4 154.9 157.6 159.6 160.9
STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 11 10 10 9 11 13 11 8 6
HEAT CONTENT 14 16 16 12 10 10 6 9 16 12 27 19 21

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -10. -15. -13. -14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. -4. -11. -20. -27. -34. -35. -36.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.6 139.3

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 2.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.48 3.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 2.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 17.4% 23.1% 22.8% 17.7% 11.5% 16.1% 11.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 8.7% 17.7% 6.7% 5.0% 5.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Bayesian: 1.7% 5.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 9.3% 15.6% 10.2% 7.7% 5.8% 5.9% 4.1% 0.1%
DTOPS: 7.0% 23.0% 12.0% 9.0% 9.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

They dont go to cat 3 as peak.

Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Erick has finally become a hurricane. Microwave and visible data
indicate that a ragged eye is present, and deep convection has been
increasing near the center. All of the satellite agencies agree on
an initial intensity of 65 kt, so that will be the advisory wind
speed. The environment is expected to generally be conducive for
continued intensification during the next 36-48 hours, and Erick
could still attain major hurricane status during that time.
Thereafter, a significant increase in shear is predicted by almost
all of the guidance. This is a strong signal for rapid weakening in
the 2-3 day time frame, and the official forecast follows suit,
showing a more rapid weakening than the previous advisory.

The hurricane has been moving faster to the west recently, but a
longer-term motion is 280/16. The mid-level ridge to the north
is still forecast to weaken tomorrow but stay in place, causing a
slower west-northwestward track. Track guidance is more divergent
tonight with the ECMWF and its ensemble considerably faster than
the rest of the models. It is notable, however, that the models
have been doing a rather poor job on the track as they all have been
biased too slow and poleward during the past couple of days. Thus,
the new forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous
one, on the western side of the model consensus, but is still
behind the ECMWF guidance for forecast continuity.

This is the last NHC advisory on Erick since the hurricane is
crossing 140W and moving into the central Pacific basin. Future
information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued
by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST,
under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web
at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 12.7N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 13.1N 142.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 13.9N 144.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 14.6N 146.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 15.2N 148.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 16.7N 157.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 17.7N 161.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Astromanía]

Come on Erick! Reach major status! You still have one and a half day or two! You can do it!

[NotSparta]

Seeing some vortical hot towers. Definitely looks to be building an eyewall

[Yellow Evan]

[senorpepr]

Recon missions for Wednesday is scrubbed for now. Based on new guidance, crews are holding in California for potential Flossie flights.

[Kingarabian]

Recon missions for Wednesday is scrubbed for now. Based on new guidance, crews are holding in California for potential Flossie flights.

Thanks for the update.

[Astromanía]

[NotSparta]

Definitely an episode of RI now; eye is beginning to appear

[Nancy Smar]

TXPN41 PHFO 300617
TCSNP1
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0617 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019
A. HURRICANE ERICK EP062019
B. 30/0540Z
C. 12.9N
D. 140.4W
E. GOES 17
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR
H. REMARKS...A WHITE EYE EMBEDDED BY .4 DEGREES IN CMW AND BY .5
DEGREES IN W YIELDS A DATA T NUMBER OF 5.0. MODEL EXPECTED T
NUMBER IS 4.0. PATTERN T NUMBER IS 4.5 PATTERN T NUMBER USED FOR
FINAL T NUMBER.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NONE.
$$
DONALDSON

[Nancy Smar]

TXPN24 KNES 300630
TCSCNP

A. 06E (ERICK)

B. 30/0600Z

C. 13.1N

D. 140.5W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D05/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LLC EMBEDDED IN LG AND RESULTS IN DT=4.5. MET=3.5 AND
PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LLC POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL

[Nancy Smar]

TPPZ01 PGTW 300635

A. HURRICANE 06E (ERICK)

B. 30/0600Z

C. 12.94N

D. 140.52W

E. THREE/GOES17

F. T5.0/5.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. W EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. SUBTRACTED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG TO
YIELD A DT OF 5.0 MET 5.0 PT 5.0 DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


STIGSSON

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 06, 2019073006, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1407W, 70, 988, HU,

[Kingarabian]

Looks like Erick is back. Soon as the eye clear out, it will go straight to major. This is a high end cat.2.

[Astromanía]

[Astromanía]

Eye is coming out!

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062019
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Hurricane Erick, which is the first tropical cyclone to enter the
central Pacific during the 2019 Hurricane Season, has been showing
signs of an eye trying to emerge in conventional infrared satellite
imagery this evening. Microwave images also continue to show
evidence of an eye surrounded by a ring of deep convection. The
latest intensity estimates from the satellite agencies are 4.0(65
kt) from SAB, 4.5(77 kt) from HFO, and 5.0(90 kt) from JTWC. The
latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 3.9(63 kt). For this advisory, we are
intensifying Erick slightly to 70 kt as a compromise, since the eye
has not become clearly defined yet.

The hurricane's short-term motion appears to be slightly slower
than 6 hours ago, but the longer-term motion is 280/15 kt for this
advisory. The mid-level ridge to the north is still forecast to
weaken Tuesday, which is expected to cause a slower forward motion
toward the west-northwest. The track guidance continues to have some
spread. The latest ECMWF and its ensemble mean remain faster than
the rest of the models. For this advisory, we have kept the track
forecast similar to the previous package.

We continue to believe that the environment around Erick will remain
conducive for additional intensification during the next 36-48
hours. The latest forecast again indicates Erick may attain major
hurricane status during the next couple of days. The circulation
around a broad upper-level trough in the vicinity of the Hawaiian
Islands will likely cause a significant increase in shear as Erick
continues to move toward the west-northwest beyond 48 hours.
Therefore, this advisory continues to show rapid weakening during
the 2 to 3 day time frame.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 13.1N 141.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 13.5N 143.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 14.3N 145.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 14.9N 147.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 15.4N 149.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 16.2N 154.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 17.0N 158.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 18.0N 162.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

[senorpepr]

First CPHC advisory package being disseminated to the combined hurricanes.gov page. Nice... a few hiccups, but nice.

I'm hoping GIS data is added for CPAC storms.

[Kingarabian]

First CPHC advisory package being disseminated to the combined hurricanes.gov page. Nice... a few hiccups, but nice.

I'm hoping GIS data is added for CPAC storms.

Houston also got the advisory out before 11PM. That, I appreciate.