EPAC: FLOSSIE - Remnants

[Chris90]

Hi Flossie!
My question is, will we see two majors hurricanes at the same time a la Madeline/Lester from 2016? or will Flossie 2019 strenght at a low rate that Erick will reach major status first and then Flossie? Whatever I'm happy that the activity and ACE numbers are going to increase now with a faster rate, but i'm concerned about the treat Flossie can give to Hawaii.

It's a pretty safe bet that Erick will reach major hurricane status before Flossie, he's way ahead of her already. It's going to come down to Erick maintaining major hurricane status long enough for Flossie to catch up if we are to have dual majors. I think it's possible. I think once Flossie fully builds a core she'll go up quick. My amateur guess is there's maybe a 60-70% shot at dual majors.

[cycloneye]

A. 07E (FLOSSIE)

B. 29/1200Z

C. 12.6N

D. 113.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5.
MET AND PT = 2.5. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOW LEVEL
CENTER.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/1026Z 12.6N 113.0W GMI


...KIBLER

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

A series of fortuitous microwave images was helpful in locating the
center of circulation and revealed significant banding improvements
in the south semicircle portion of the cyclone. Although the
subjective satellite T-number estimates only yield an intensity of
35 kt, subsequent SATCON analysis of 50 kt and the ADT estimate of
47 kt support increasing the initial intensity to 45 kt for this
advisory.

The ocean is warm and the shear is low, therefore, strengthening
should continue and Flossie is forecast to become a hurricane in 24
hours. The GFS and ECMWF Decay SHIPS and the global models are
showing increasing northerly vertical shear beyond the 48-hour
period, which should curtail the intensification rate through the
remainder of the forecast period. Both the NOAA HCCA and IVCN
multi-model intensity consensus reflect this trend, and the official
forecast was adjusted downward just a bit from the last advisory
to agree with these models. It's still worth noting, however, that
Flossie could undergo rapid intensification during the next 48
hours, as indicated by a 40 percent probability of that occurring in
the SHIPS RI guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/16 kt. A
deep-layer ridge is well-established and anchored to the north of
the cyclone, and should steer Flossie generally westward to
west-northwestward through the entire forecast period. The model
suite remains tightly clustered and no adjustments have been made
to the previous forecast, which again is close to the better
performing TVCN and HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 12.5N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 12.4N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 12.3N 119.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 12.7N 122.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 13.3N 124.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 14.7N 129.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 16.1N 135.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[hurricanes1234]

Ooh is it magical shear I see in the forecast?

[Yellow Evan]

Ooh is it magical shear I see in the forecast?

It’s not “magical shear”. SHIPS has indicated around 10-15 knots of shear for quite a few runs now, which may or may not be strong enough to affect Flossie significantly.

[Kingarabian]

12Z EPS almost zeroing in on a Hawaii hit. Also half the EPS members are more bullish on its intensity compared to the operational model.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

The GOES-17 water vapor presentation, along with the upper-level
satellite-derived winds, reveals that an upper anticyclone just to
the north of Flossie is still producing modest vertical wind shear.
This inhibiting wind pattern is also confirmed by a recent METOP-B
AMSU pass that depicted a lack of deep convection in the northern
portion of the cyclone. The subjective and objective intensity
estimates, along with an earlier 1517 UTC SATCON analysis, yield
an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.

Flossie is forecast to gradually intensify into a category 2
hurricane in 3 days, then commence a slow weakening trend as the
cyclone moves into a more stable and drier air mass, along with
increasing wind shear. The official intensity forecast is based on
a blend of the NOAA HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble, and is
similar to the previous package.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/16 kt. A
strong, deep-layer ridge anchored to the north of Flossie should
influence a generally westward to west-northwestward motion during
the next 5 days. The track guidance remains in very good agreement
and the official NHC track forecast is again hedged toward the
NOAA HCCA and the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 12.5N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 12.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 12.6N 120.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 13.2N 123.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 13.8N 125.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 15.5N 131.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 17.0N 136.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 18.3N 142.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JUL 2019 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 12:30:10 N Lon : 116:04:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 993.7mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -56.6C Cloud Region Temp : -62.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.96 ARC in LT GRAY

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

[Yellow Evan]

29/1800 UTC 12.6N 115.6W T3.0/3.0 FLOSSIE -- East Pacific

[Kingarabian]

Past couple runs of the GFS has this very weak as it approaches Hawaii:

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1155959346716483585




Flossie's weakening as it approaches Hawaii has to be from something other than SST's (shear). If this is the models reasoning for weakening, then they will be terribly wrong. Flossie's track will parallel SST's of near 27C until it reaches Hawaii where they drop to near 26C. This is more than enough to support a hurricane strength storm. Lot's of proof of this from past systems between 2014-2018 that tracked close to Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

The dynamic models don't have the bias problems with systems over 26-27C waters that the statistical models do that the previous post highlighted. Still, this has a trickier future than Erick because quite frankly, I'm not sure when a) shear will kick in and b) will it be enough to totally kill it off. I'll post the SHIPS output from 18z in the next post will but the upper level environment should be conducive enough to prevent rapid weakening it seems. If this can get an inner core established in 24 hours, this also has a decent chance to become a major hurricane still despite a wavering guidance, with the ECMWF no longer calling for this to become a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FLOSSIE EP072019 07/29/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 64 68 71 73 72 67 64 60 56
V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 64 68 71 73 72 67 64 60 56
V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 62 66 68 69 68 66 64 61 56
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 4 8 9 14 15 15 12 19 15 16 15 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 2 0 0 3 0 1 -1 -3 0 0 1
SHEAR DIR 344 347 353 340 343 298 319 359 360 346 341 316 312
SST (C) 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.2 26.2 27.2 26.6 26.3
POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 150 151 151 155 151 145 137 127 138 131 128
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 73 72 71 67 61 57 54 51 51 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 20 20 19 19
850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 19 11 15 20 28 33 10 15 5 8 8
200 MB DIV 64 77 84 96 104 117 87 78 18 9 7 -14 -6
700-850 TADV -7 -8 -8 -8 -12 -11 -9 -15 -9 -8 -5 -7 -2
LAND (KM) 1294 1379 1473 1553 1641 1762 1894 2052 2190 2254 1934 1615 1330
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.3 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.1 17.8
LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.9 118.2 119.6 120.9 123.5 125.9 128.5 131.1 133.9 136.8 139.7 142.3
STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 35 15 16 21 28 32 18 18 10 5 25 2 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 27. 22. 19. 15. 11.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.5 115.5

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.60 5.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 18.8% 44.8% 32.2% 23.1% 14.8% 39.0% 43.8% 11.4%
Logistic: 17.3% 39.8% 27.6% 19.7% 7.1% 16.3% 8.0% 3.9%
Bayesian: 18.3% 43.7% 34.4% 15.2% 3.6% 17.6% 8.6% 0.7%
Consensus: 18.1% 42.7% 31.4% 19.4% 8.5% 24.3% 20.1% 5.3%
DTOPS: 15.0% 39.0% 26.0% 20.0% 14.0% 20.0% 5.0% 7.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

The dynamic models don't have the bias problems with systems over 26-27C waters that the statistical models do that the previous post highlighted. Still, this has a trickier future than Erick because quite frankly, I'm not sure when a) shear will kick in and b) will it be enough to totally kill it off. I'll post the SHIPS output from 18z in the next post will but the upper level environment should be conducive enough to prevent rapid weakening it seems. If this can get an inner core established in 24 hours, this also has a decent chance to become a major hurricane still despite a wavering guidance, with the ECMWF no longer calling for this to become a hurricane.

Agreed. This is a great way to look at it. Very tricky forecast.

[Kingarabian]

As of 00:00 UTC Jul 30, 2019:

Location: 12.3°N 117.1°W
Maximum Winds: 55 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM

[Kingarabian]

Might be go time for Flossie with the center now nicely embedded within the CDO.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUL 2019 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 12:28:05 N Lon : 116:54:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 992.4mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 4.0 4.3

Center Temp : -75.6C Cloud Region Temp : -71.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Still no core evident but it'll likely be seen soon since the center is beneath very cold cloud tops:

[Yellow Evan]

A bit surprised to see 55 given SAB is still T3.0.

TXPZ26 KNES 300034
TCSENP

A. 07E (FLOSSIE)

B. 30/0000Z

C. 12.4N

D. 117.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY AN IRREGULAR CDO MEASURING OVER
1.25DEG. DT=3.O MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FLOSSIE EP072019 07/30/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 73 77 81 87 84 81 80 73 69 61
V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 73 77 81 87 84 81 80 73 69 61
V (KT) LGEM 55 60 65 69 73 78 82 84 82 77 72 65 56
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 10 6 13 14 17 14 11 10 21 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 8 -2 -2 -2 0 0 2 2 2
SHEAR DIR 20 359 360 343 325 313 352 1 356 330 323 305 304
SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.4 27.6 25.9 27.0 26.4 25.9 26.5
POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 151 153 155 150 142 124 135 129 123 129
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 70 71 69 63 58 54 51 51 54 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 22 21 21 25 24 25 28 26 27 25
850 MB ENV VOR 12 21 13 8 8 20 28 23 16 21 9 11 11
200 MB DIV 78 83 76 87 117 92 81 44 28 19 38 0 11
700-850 TADV -9 -10 -10 -13 -10 -6 -11 -16 -6 0 -3 -1 0
LAND (KM) 1397 1477 1565 1637 1701 1832 1978 2113 2277 2056 1759 1476 1215
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.3 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.4
LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.4 119.6 120.9 122.2 124.8 127.3 130.0 132.8 135.6 138.3 140.9 143.3
STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 14 17 22 27 37 22 20 17 0 24 3 0 2

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 7. 9. 12. 10. 11. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 32. 29. 26. 25. 18. 14. 6.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.3 117.1

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 5.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.61 7.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 6.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 9.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 6.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 20.3% 61.3% 45.8% 35.5% 25.0% 46.6% 32.5% 9.4%
Logistic: 22.3% 50.8% 38.1% 30.8% 10.1% 19.4% 6.0% 2.0%
Bayesian: 31.0% 59.7% 46.9% 30.6% 6.3% 25.5% 7.8% 0.0%
Consensus: 24.5% 57.2% 43.6% 32.3% 13.8% 30.5% 15.4% 3.8%
DTOPS: 36.0% 50.0% 41.0% 35.0% 27.0% 30.0% 5.0% 6.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

On a second thought, this might be reasonable given ADT values if TAFB is T3.5.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUL 2019 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 12:27:41 N Lon : 117:01:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.7mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.1 4.2

Center Temp : -75.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF