ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[USTropics]

More likely: This thing hits Hispaniola and never does anything.
Less Likely: This forks/splits into two entities and the north shield takes over after the southern circulation dies off.

Interaction with Hispaniola can be a double-edged sword. A weak system like this with no true low-level identity currently, it could help consolidate a new low-level flow closer to the shear aided convection. Certainly a more developed system, interaction with Hispaniola is detrimental. Difficult for models to forecast how vorticity interacts and streams downslope off the mountains.

[boca]

More important question will this impact Florida or miss us to the east as it recurves?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Boy this mornings visible sure looks like just a wave. I don't see any LLC yet, not supposed to, but it looks ways off looking at low cloud motion and surface plots. Maybe under the convection a new Vort center will from, but the last plot looks like the vort center is pretty far west of the official "center" Have to wait and see.

If you notice the convection off of the NE tip of PR is barely moving while the surface trough continues to move west away from it, a mid level vorticity might form here later on but the convection will eventually die off. Convection will reform further west closer to the wave's axis but not sustain itself until it gets into a better mid and UL environment.

Yes that seems plausible. The model support is more into the Bahamas north of PR for development. Actually best chances are north of Hisp. as that trough retrogrades. Convection will need to hold though.

[USTropics]

More important question will this impact Florida or miss us to the east as it recurves?

Unless there's a very sudden burst of development and deepening in the Bahamas, steering currents will bring this into Florida over the weekend, increasing moisture and gradient forcing (i.e. expect similar conditions to a TD).

[cycloneye]

The flash Flood Watch for all of Puerto Rico and the USVI has been extended to Wednesday evening.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/1156209101313101824

[OuterBanker]

A cautionary tale. Boy, did I speak too soon. I know better than to take the IR virtually.
Early this am before the visible was available it sure looked good. Even had symmetry.
No llc, no show on 850 vort map, etc.
The only elongated vort I see is now just east of Hispaniola.
That is showing some mid-level flare up.

[northjaxpro]

Convection is now beginning to pop near the spin south of PR once again early this afternoon.

[toad strangler]

The NHC keeps nudging the lemon area to the E

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. This system is
forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward during the next
several days, producing locally heavy rainfall over portions of the
northern Caribbean and the Bahamas. Conditions could become
marginally conducive for development late this week when the
disturbance moves near Florida and the northwestern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[boca]

We are out of the lemon for Florida so maybe this will be a nonevent as far as rain goes.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

We are out of the lemon for Florida so maybe this will be a nonevent as far as rain goes.

I wouldn't trust the cone till something developed.

That thing will look totally different if a TD spun up in the next hour.

[hipshot]

We are out of the lemon for Florida so maybe this will be a nonevent as far as rain goes.

What is the lemon you are talking about?

[boca]

We are out of the lemon for Florida so maybe this will be a nonevent as far as rain goes.

What is the lemon you are talking about?

The NHC has a shaded area in yellow showing where they think 95L is heading.

[floridasun78]

We are out of the lemon for Florida so maybe this will be a nonevent as far as rain goes.

What is the lemon you are talking about?

he talking about circle on outlook map for 95l

[hipshot]

We are out of the lemon for Florida so maybe this will be a nonevent as far as rain goes.

What is the lemon you are talking about?

The NHC has a shaded area in yellow showing where they think 95L is heading.

Thanks.

[floridasun78]

raining alot in usvi and PR

[Nimbus]

raining alot in usvi and PR

Looks like most of the energy is skipping north of Puerto Rico which might mean less interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola?

[northjaxpro]

I am still inclined to believe that over the next 24 hours or so, we will see convection increase again as 95L traverses away from Hispaniola and treks toward The Bahamas and enters into a better environment with considerably less shear and stronger convergence. It is then we could see a stronger vorticity max develop and that will be the focus of potential gradual development in The Bahamas region beginning on Thursday.

[boca]

The GFS has this coming near Florida, but the NHC shows a recurve over the Bahamas.

[northjaxpro]

It is all about timing of trough and the orientation of the southwest periphery of the AB Ridge axis as 95L rounds the edge of the ridge. It is possible it could get to the Florida East Coast and provide lots of rain and other impacts, depending on how much 95L develops. But, the trough could pick it up and keep it over The Bahamas (the scenario I am leaning to happening) and then going out to sea.