WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

2019/7/29 04:46:14: [93W Formed] 93W INVEST 190729 0000 21.0N 161.0E WPAC 15 1006

[1900hurricane]

It appears this is what guidance has begun to pick up crossing the WPac these last few runs.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.1N 160.5E, APPROXIMATELY 376 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 291913Z SSMIS
F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS A LINE OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD AND FOLLOWING THE AXIS OF A LOW LEVEL WAVE FEATURE. A
291103Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL WAVE FEATURE WITH
A SMALL AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE. 93W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27 TO 28 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
93W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Euro doesn't develop this much, Euro is more interested in the Philippine Sea

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.1N 160.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 159.6E, APPROXIMATELY
975 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300225Z 89GHZ AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
WAVE FEATURE WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL
FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLC THAT
INCREASES SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST. DESPITE THE REGION OF HIGH
SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31C) AND STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT DUE TO SOUTWARD AND EASTWARD FLOW SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE TERM AS THE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK, WITH GFS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AT TAU 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[ManilaTC]

93W INVEST 190730 1800 20.0N 155.1E WPAC 15 1007

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.2N 159.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 155.1E, APPROXIMATELY
608 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POTENTIAL
MID-LEVEL BANDING TO THE NORTH. A 301900Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS FINGERS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LLC. A
301114Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WEAK AND ELONGATED LLC WITH
A COUPLE OF 25 KNOT WIND BARBS TO THE EAST UNDER THE DEEP
CONVECTION. 93W IS CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
(27 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY POOR
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE AFTER TAU 100 WITH MOST OF THE MODELS, NAVGEM AS THE
EXCEPTION, SHOWING INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.0N 155.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 154.9E, APPROXIMATELY
745 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 302343Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A REGION OF BROAD
TROUGHING WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
DISTURBANCE IS SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION, HOWEVER THERE IS VERY WEAK
DIVERGENCE AND LOW (5-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE BEST TRACK
POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN
THE VICINITY OF 93W. GLOBAL MODELS KEEP DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 72 AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON A NORTHWEST TRACK, WITH POSSIBLE INTERACTION
WITH A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.5N 152.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY
607 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010420Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE SHOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, WEAK
LLC. RECENT ASCAT INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 KNOT WINDS
AND ISOLATED 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WITH A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM (28-30C) IN THE VICINITY OF 93W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Nancy Smar]

WTPQ21 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 18.3N 154.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 22.0N 151.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Nancy Smar]

WTPN21 PGTW 011330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.7N 154.1E TO 24.0N 148.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
011300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N
153.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 153.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 153.6E, APPROXIMATELY
601 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011033Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW AN IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DEEP BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. A 011033Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS AND AN ISOLATED PATCH
OF 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS STRONG EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WITH A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM (28-30C) IN THE VICINITY OF 93W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STEADY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021330Z.//
NNNN

[Nancy Smar]

2019/8/2 19:16:37: [09W Formed] 09W NINE 190801 1800 19.5N 153.3E WPAC 25 1002

[Nancy Smar]

WDPN32 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OF A PARTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 011651Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
ASCAT DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SUBSIDENCE
CAUSED BY AN ADJACENT TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THESE ARE
PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (3OC)
ALONG-TRACK SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ON THIS SYSTEM
AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 09W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGHOUT THIS
FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS RESULTING IN A SLOW OR EVEN SUSTAINED
INTENSIFICATION. AFTERWARD, VWS WILL RELAX AND THE TUTT CELL WILL
PROPAGATE WELL AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE, ALLOWING FOR A MORE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 72, TD 09W WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO AND WILL HAVE REACHED 55 KNOTS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, 09W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING STR TOWARD KYUSHU, JAPAN. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU
96. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE 09W, REDUCING IT TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS IT TRACKS JUST SOUTH
OF SASEBO. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A DEVELOPING SYSTEM. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, STORM MOTION, AND
INTENSIFICATION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FIRST TRACK FORECAST
TRACK FROM JTWC.//
NNNN

[Nancy Smar]

WTPN32 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 153.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 153.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.9N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.6N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.5N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 28.1N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 30.3N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 32.7N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 153.0E.
01AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
501 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND
022100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (WIPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[Nancy Smar]

WTPQ21 RJTD 020000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 020000UTC 19.6N 153.1E FAIR

MOVE NW 08KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 180NM

FORECAST

24HF 030000UTC 24.1N 148.9E 70NM 70%

MOVE NW 15KT

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 040KT

GUST 060KT

48HF 040000UTC 27.1N 143.0E 120NM 70%

MOVE WNW 15KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 055KT

GUST 080KT

72HF 050000UTC 29.8N 136.1E 180NM 70%

MOVE WNW 17KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT =

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, clearly a tropical storm now, but still badly sheared due to the nearby upper low.

[mrbagyo]

Finally, we have a decent TC

Here's the prognostic reasoning from JMA

WTPQ31 RJTD 020000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE

PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING

NO. 3 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 19.0N, 153.6E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS (FRANCISCO) STATUS. TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 153.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.

3.TRACK FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
631 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF A SYMMETRIC AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. A 020546Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY
INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF A TUTT CELL POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST, WHICH IS
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT ALSO SHEARING THE CORE CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TS 09W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A 205NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. TS 09W SHOULD INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
TRACK WESTWARD, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER
RATE FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 72 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS
FORECAST AT TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER KYUSHU AND SOUTH KOREA ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFS, WHICH
RECURVE THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY INTO A STRONG STR, THE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES KYUSHU DUE TO THE
INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
OBSCURED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. DESPITE THAT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON A 030535Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND A
022122Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 44 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETTING
CONVERGENCE ALOFT FROM A TUTT CELL JUST TO THE WEST OF TS 09W, IS
MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. NOTABLY, DESPITE THE MAX
WIND DEPICTED ON THE WARNING GRAPHIC BEING 60 KTS, WIND SPEEDS OF 65-
70 KTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND TAU 60, AS TS 09W MAKES LANDFALL ON
KYUSHU. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER WINDS FALLS BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72
AND IS NOT DISPLAYED ON THE WARNING GRAPHIC.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SASEBO UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, WHICH STAYS FAR
LEFT OF CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THE SPREAD IS LOW AT AROUND 150
NM AT TAU 72. TS 09W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH ABOUT TAU 30 DUE
TO THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE FILLING TUTT CELL. AFTER TAU 30,
DESPITE POOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, TS 09W SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE, REACHING 65-70 KTS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER
KYUSHU, JAPAN AROUND TAU 60. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE RUGGED
TERRAIN SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE INTENSITY BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 09W WILL GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD AS IT
STARTS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL WEST OF
BUSAN, KOREA. ALTHOUGH NAVGEM AND GFS ARE EAST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS,
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TRACK. BY TAU 120, TS
09W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
START UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER COOLER (23-25 DEGREE
CELSIUS) SEAS. BASED ON GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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