WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

The newer JTWC forecast looks much more reasonable to me.

Also worth noting that Francisco is now a Severe Tropical Storm.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECOMING LESS
OBSCURED BY THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AS SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR
WRAPS IN TO THE CENTER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION WHICH WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 032107Z SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWED A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND MOSTLY SHALLOW BANDS TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS FALLS BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES FROM
T2.5-T3.0 (35-45 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) BEING OFFSET BY
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
SOUTH. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SASEBO UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE SPREAD AT 48 HOURS BEING ABOUT 87
NM. AFTER PASSING SASEBO AROUND TAU 48, TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
A GRADUAL POLEWARD TURN AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. UNTIL LANDFALL
AROUND TAU 40, TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO AROUND 50-
55 KTS AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL,
TS 09W SHOULD WEAKEN OVER KYUSHU DUE TO THE RUGGED TERRAIN. A SECOND
LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR NEAR BUSAN, KOREA AROUND TAU 60. BASED ON
TIGHT GROUPING OF THE MODEL DATA AND THE STEADY INFLUENCE OF THE
STR, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE RECURVING AS IT ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS, TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF SOUTH KOREA, AND PASS
INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, LAND INTERACTION,
INCREASING VWS, AND COOLER SST SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 96,
TS 09W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND START UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). ETT SHOULD
COMPLETE PRIOR TO TAU 120. AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, SPREAD
IN MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY, PRIMARILY DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED. FOR THIS REASON, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 040300
TCSWNP

A. 09W (FRANCISCO)

B. 04/0230Z

C. 28.3N

D. 142.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CURVED BANDING MEASURES .8 FOR DT=3.5. MET=3.0 PT=3.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECOMING LESS
OBSCURED BY THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AS SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR
WRAPS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION WHICH WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 030441Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE THAT SHOWED A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING IN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LLCC AND MOSTLY SHALLOW BANDS TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS FALLS BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
FIXES FROM T2.5-T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS.
A 032359Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND
DISPLAYS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTAINED
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) BEING OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SASEBO UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE SPREAD AT 48 HOURS AT APPROXIMATELY
55 NM. AFTER PASSING SASEBO AROUND TAU 48, TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN A GRADUAL POLEWARD TURN AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. UNTIL
LANDFALL IN JAPAN AROUND TAU 36, TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY TO AROUND 55 KNOTS AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL DUE
TO POOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TS 09W SHOULD WEAKEN OVER KYUSHU
DUE TO THE RUGGED TERRAIN. A SECOND LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR NEAR BUSAN,
KOREA AROUND TAU 54. BASED ON TIGHT GROUPING OF THE MODEL DATA AND
THE STEADY INFLUENCE OF THE STR, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE RECURVING AS IT ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS, ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF SOUTH KOREA, AND PASS INTO THE
SEA OF JAPAN. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING
VWS, AND COOLER SST SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 96, TS 09W WILL
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). ETT SHOULD COMPLETE PRIOR
TO TAU 120. AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY, PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
ALONG-TRACK SPEED. FOR THIS REASON, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Interesting. Wish we had recon to defy Dvorak just like the Atlantic.

[1900hurricane]

Considering good microwave structure featuring a cyan ring, I feel that JTWC's 45 kt is a little too low and that JMA's 10 minute sustained 50 kt is more realistic. However, all the dry air and subsidence has really kept Francisco down. The 12Z Chichijima sounding I have below was taken in the outer periphery of Francisco and still shows how much dry air there is throughout much of the troposphere. A sounding in close proximity of a tropical cyclone like this would typically show much more saturation.

[dexterlabio]

Would be cool to see this briefly becoming a typhoon before affecting landmass...just for the sake of seeing consecutive typhoons in this basin after several months of lackluster activity.

[1900hurricane]

Underlying structure remains rather good.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS BEING OBSCURED BY A SMALL (ROUGHLY 110 NM WIDE)
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY FROM THE SOUTH.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 041703Z
ATMS 88 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS FALLS
BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES FROM T3.0-T3.5 (45-55 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST), AND FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
FROM AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TS 09W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 36, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND PASS NEAR SASEBO JUST PRIOR TO TAU 30. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM
WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48, MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
BUSAN, KOREA NEAR TAU 40, AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AROUND TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
36. AFTER TAU 36, SPREAD REMAINS GOOD BUT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE DUE TO MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF
THE STR. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OVER
KYUSHU AROUND TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED FAST FORWARD SPEED
SHOULD MINIMIZE THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING OVER KYUSHU PRIOR TO PASSING
NEAR SASEBO. BASED ON THE OVERALL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS
AND THE STEADY PRESENCE OF THE STR, CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL COMPLETING ETT SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD, COOL SST AND HIGH VWS SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THAT ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TYPICALLY
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER A SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE, MAKING FOR FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Looking alot organized. There's a warm spot showing up and the models say this will intensify on its way to landfall.

[1900hurricane]

Honestly wouldn't be surprised if it pushed typhoon intensity in the next 12 hours.

[Hayabusa]

Upgraded to typhoon at 6Z by JMA

[Hayabusa]

TY 1908 (Francisco)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 5 August 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 5 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N30°50' (30.8°)
E134°30' (134.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)

[Hayabusa]

The first typhoon since the record breaker Wutip and second typhoon of 2019

Francisco became a typhoon in the subtropics, the tropics is struggling since Wutip, that can change if Lekima can also do it while Lekima is in the tropics

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
THAT REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING
CONVECTION. THE MICROWAVE EYE SEEN IN THE 050526Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE
FURTHER SUPPORTS THE POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS)
AND A 050115Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), AND FAIR RADIAL
OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE ON A SIMILAR TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKE LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU
AROUND TAU 12, AND PASS NEAR SASEBO JUST AFTER TAU 24. SECOND
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR BUSAN, KOREA AROUND TAU 30 AS THE CYCLONE
STARTS ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, TS 09W WILL HAVE
ROUNDED THE STR AXIS, BEGIN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SEA OF
JAPAN, AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT RAPIDLY TRACKS OVER
JAPAN AND KOREA. BY THE TIME TS 09W EMERGES INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN,
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35 KTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 48, TS 09W WILL TRACK EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE ETT AROUND TAU 72. DESPITE COOL SST AND
HIGH VWS, THE INTENSITY SHOULD ONLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST,
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES SLIGHTLY TO 150 NM, LENDING
TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Tailspin]

its a typhoon..... kuroshio current effect.


https://imgur.com/CWx49Ij


https://imgur.com/Ve50tOC

[Hayabusa]

Up to 70 knots

TY 1908 (Francisco)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 5 August 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 5 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N31°10' (31.2°)
E133°05' (133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)

[1900hurricane]

Looks like it recently made landfall, probably near Saito or so. Time to go digging for some surface obs.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1158470729358180352