WPAC: LEKIMA - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

2019/7/30 08:20:50: [94W Formed] 94W INVEST 190730 0600 15.0N 137.0E WPAC 15 0

[Nancy Smar]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 15N 139E WEST SLOWLY.

[euro6208]

00Z and 06Z GFS intensifies this into a strong typhoon. 928mb while making a beeline for mainland Japan.

00Z EURO is much further west. Making landfall south of Shanghai at 988mb.

[euro6208]

94W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 30, 2019:

Location: 15.0°N 137.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[ManilaTC]

94W INVEST 190730 1800 15.2N 134.7E WPAC 15 1004

[mrbagyo]

Finally, we have something to tune into.

[euro6208]

GFS has been consistent in bottoming this around 930's mb...with landfall around Mainland Japan.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1156340408882016256

[Nancy Smar]

2019/8/1 01:02:42: [94W Changed] 94W INVEST 190801 0000 15.0N 134.8E WPAC 20 1006

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 134.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY
745 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010103Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN EXPOSED, DISORGANIZED LLC WITH DISPLACED, WEAK CONVECTION
ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VWS (20-30 KNOTS) AND
WEAK OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 27-28C. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING 94W TRACKING NORTHWARD WITH
SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Nancy Smar]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 16N 134E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Nancy Smar]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 15.7N 134.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY

793 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012138Z SSMIS 91GHZ

MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED LLC WITH DISPLACED,

FRAGMENTED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL

ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG

VWS (20-30 KNOTS) OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 27-28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT SHOWING 94W TRACKING NORTHWARD WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[1900hurricane]

Guidance is pretty close to unanimous in developing this invest, although to varying degrees of intensity. Still looks like it might be a couple of days before it's sufficiently organized for classification owing to the very broad initial surface state and present easterly shear in a rather chaotic WPac. Given the TUTT activity and longer organization period, I'm thinking high C1/low C2 peak intensity right now, although honestly who really knows this early in the game. Looks like it might head generally north in the direction of the southern main islands of Japan.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.9N 132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY
743 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. INVEST 94W IS
ASSESSED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH A 750NM DIAMETER AND MODERATE
VWS. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
WITH A BROAD CORE OF PREDOMINANTLY WEAK (10-20 KNOT) WINDS WITH
STRONG, CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS (30-35 KNOTS) OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY FUELING ISOLATED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY PORTRAYS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A
020043Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS WITH
NO EVIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANT BANDING. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 27-28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

[Nancy Smar]

WTPQ22 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 15.3N 133.1E POOR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 16.2N 133.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 031200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 132.0E TO 19.6N 135.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 132.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 132.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY
680 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 031531Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE
DEPICT A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION
SLOWLY MIGRATING OVER THE CENTER, THOUGH STILL CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ARC OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE
TO INFLOW FROM THE EAST FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTH. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
WITH LOW (5-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLC, STRONG
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ARC, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSETTING THE AFOREMENTIONED INFLOW. WHILE
THERE ARE CURRENTLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS IN THE SOUTHERN SURGE
FLOW, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LLC WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE STORM
MEANDERS TO THE NORTHEAST, BEFORE A POSSIBLE TURN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041200Z.//
NNNN

[Nancy Smar]

currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 1.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 0.5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber: 1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 1
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened: 1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 1.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber: 1
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 1.5
finalTNumberType: 2

[Nancy Smar]

At 8:00 PM today, the Low Pressure Area east of Virac, Catanduanes developed into Tropical Depression "HANNA". PAGASA-DOST will begin issuing Severe Weather Bulletins at 11:00 PM today.#HannaPH

[1900hurricane]

Still not quite closed, and even if it was, the circulation is still too broad and displaced from the convection fro classification. 94W has made marked improvements for sure though.