ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Funny enough that once this was declared an invest models just said No.

Could be the input parameters from the invest. Before the invest maybe it was more open ranged data... and now its defined with a size and strict location. Who knows. Some piece of information was included and muddled everything up more.

Though this is also nothing new.. few more runs and we will have a better idea.

Why does it need to be declared an invest in order for better data to be inputted? That seems a bit illogical.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I have to ask since Uncle SAL has 96L on its last rites currently, is it time to call upon Bones to come to Sick Bay to make his final diagnosis on 96L?

[floridasun78]

model dont well forecasting sal and shear because you saw past few days show 96l becoming big system now we see sal affecting it as did with 95l

[AxaltaRacing24]

Well, I have to ask since Uncle SAL has 96L on its last rites currently, is it time to call upon Bones to come to Sick Bay to make his final diagnosis on 96L?

no

[northjaxpro]

I'll give 96L a couple of days more while on life support to see if it can make it past 55 degrees Longitude with still a pulse. I will give it one last chance to resurrect itself, but the outlook does not good. 96L battling up against long odds of surviving well into this weekend,.let.alone next week.

[hohnywx]

Well, I have to ask since Uncle SAL has 96L on its last rites currently, is it time to call upon Bones to come to Sick Bay to make his final diagnosis on 96L?

This isn’t directed at you specifically, but posts like these add so little to the discussion. This system was never supposed to strengthen at this location in the MDR. Just because the models backed off today on development does not mean it won’t come back tomorrow. Again, the NHC (the people that actually get paid for this) chose to keep development chances at 70% at 2 PM.

[DioBrando]

Well, I have to ask since Uncle SAL has 96L on its last rites currently, is it time to call upon Bones to come to Sick Bay to make his final diagnosis on 96L?

This isn’t directed at you specifically, but posts like these add so little to the discussion. This system was never supposed to strengthen at this location in the MDR. Just because the models backed off today on development does not mean it won’t come back tomorrow. Again, the NHC (the people that actually get paid for this) chose to keep development chances at 70% at 2 PM.

So you think this will redevelop later on?

[ava_ati]

70% chance of development suddenly seems much too high at this point. Seems they will need to drop that number a decent amount on the next update. Big time model bust on this one.

You think so? I mean yeah it was on again off again... But the GFS had way more "this is nothing runs" than it did moster major runs and the ECMWF was never super bullish, especially later in the runs (it had troubles detecting the SAL early). At this point I think a Cat 3+ into Miami would be a bust

Go look at the 18z July 27th run (4 days ago)



Even the 12z Euro from the 27th had nothing more than an open wave through the Carrib (the one higher up around VA's lat was 95L)

[northjaxpro]

I have been a member for 9 years on Storm 2k, and we need to have some lighter moments at times on these forums. I have learned through the years. I actually appreciate the esteemed resident mod/ pro met of Storm2k, Wxman57 , for bringing Bones in for bringing in some moments to take the edge off of some you on here.

It is part of the discussion, in a looser way. Either you feel that the SAL and potential eventual shear will kill off 96L for good, or if 96L will make one of the great resurrections in TC history... You decide..

[USTropics]

Besides the operational models, ensemble support has really diminished. Ukmet has 6% ensemble support, ECMWF has 18%, and GFS has 30% (https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?stm=96L.2019&dtg=2019080112)

This is essentially what is referred to as a 'dry wave'. No sustainable convection, not only from the SAL to the north but also dry, anomalous mid-level air located to the south:

mid-level WV CIMSS product:


12z GFS:


Development chances are dwindling but not nonexistent, there still remains a sharp wave axis with a pronounced vorticity signature. This is still a potent 'seed', and perhaps when it reaches west of 50W it can rebuild some convection (see GFS image above, a better environment remains there).

[hohnywx]

Well, I have to ask since Uncle SAL has 96L on its last rites currently, is it time to call upon Bones to come to Sick Bay to make his final diagnosis on 96L?

This isn’t directed at you specifically, but posts like these add so little to the discussion. This system was never supposed to strengthen at this location in the MDR. Just because the models backed off today on development does not mean it won’t come back tomorrow. Again, the NHC (the people that actually get paid for this) chose to keep development chances at 70% at 2 PM.

So you think this will redevelop later on?

I’m not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV, so I don’t issue forecasts. I take my information from the NHC.

[Cpv17]

This is one of those systems that will probably remain weak till it gets near the Bahamas or the NW Caribbean. That area seems to be the sweet spot for development and of course the entire GOM. Of course this system may never even make it to those areas. It’s way early still guys. As long as the vorticity holds together, I wouldn’t write it off.

[Aric Dunn]

I guess i missed all fun while i was driving lol.. great conversations lol

[Aric Dunn]

As usual.. gfs back with development and stronger ridging.. never saw that coming lol oh wait...i did
Sorry less titled ridge axis..

[tarheelprogrammer]

As usual.. gfs back with development and stronger ridging.. never saw that coming lol oh wait... i did
Sorry less titled ridge axis..

GFS is not developing this at 0z.

[Aric Dunn]

As usual.. gfs back with development and stronger ridging.. never saw that coming lol oh wait... i did
Sorry less titled ridge axis..

GFS is not developing this at 0z.

Before it passes PR.... and much more orginization than previous runs..

[Hammy]

As usual.. gfs back with development and stronger ridging.. never saw that coming lol oh wait... i did
Sorry less titled ridge axis..

GFS is not developing this at 0z.

Before it passes PR.... and much more orginization than previous runs..

It's beyond 240h and the GFS can hardly be considered reliable north of 25, and it's essentially doing what it did with 95L--toying with development out of range until getting the actual conditions resolved.

[bamajammer4eva]

As usual.. gfs back with development and stronger ridging.. never saw that coming lol oh wait... i did
Sorry less titled ridge axis..

GFS is not developing this at 0z.

Before it passes PR.... and much more orginization than previous runs..

Loop of last 5 GFS runs showing the trend near PR from 8/1 @ 00z to 8/2 @ 00z. It does bring it back for a frame or 2, High seems to be weaker with each run however.

[bamajammer4eva]

This is one of those systems that will probably remain weak till it gets near the Bahamas or the NW Caribbean. That area seems to be the sweet spot for development and of course the entire GOM. Of course this system may never even make it to those areas. It’s way early still guys. As long as the vorticity holds together, I wouldn’t write it off.

Its gonna have to get near the Yucatan or western tip of Cuba to develop according to this

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1157016490639593472

[dexterlabio]

NOT saying this is gonna go Harvey, but didn't that invest that became Harvey only ramp up when it got near the mainland or something...I can remember posts pointing to its total dissipation with little support from the models that it would regenerate.. But it did anyway and even packed a punch. My point is systems are tagged as invests for a reason so we should look onto every possibilities or scenarios.