EPAC: IVO - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Ivo has been basically devoid of deep convection since about 0300
UTC, and the cyclone is on its way to becoming a remnant low. A
pair of recent ASCAT passes indicate that the maximum winds have
decreased, and the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly
generous 30 kt, which makes Ivo a tropical depression. Ivo is
currently over 24 degree C SSTs and in a dry and stable environment.
Since these conditions are expected to become even more hostile
during the next couple of days, Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low later today and dissipate within a couple of days.

The depression is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. A slight
turn to the north with a notable decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next day or two while the shallow cyclone is
steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies near
the various consensus models.

Even though Ivo is weakening, swells generated by the system are
affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to
continue through the day and could cause rip currents. See products
from your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 24.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 25.8N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0600Z 26.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1800Z 27.5N 117.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 251433
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 340/10 kt, and that motion is
forecast to continue today. A turn to the north with a gradual
decrease in forward speed is still expected to occur on Monday, and
that motion should continue into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close a blend of
the consensus models HCCA, TVCN, and TVCX.

The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier ASCAT surface
wind data. Although a small area of deep convection has redeveloped
about 100 n mi north of the low-level center, that thunderstorm
activity is too far away to provide any positive feedback onto the
circulation. Thus, Ivo basically remains devoid of any significant
organized convection, and this downward trend is expected to
continue for the next 48 hours while the cyclone moves of waters
cooler than 22C. As a result of the expected spin down of the
shallow vortex, Ivo is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant
low later today and dissipate by Tuesday.

Although Ivo is weakening, significant swells generated by the
cyclone are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and southern California. These swells are
likely to continue through the day and could cause rip currents,
and gradually subside on Monday. See products from your local
weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 25.5N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 26.7N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1200Z 27.5N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0000Z 28.3N 118.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Hurricane Jed]

Ivo the not so terrible