EPAC: IVO - Remnants

[Nancy Smar]

95E INVEST 190816 1200 12.0N 95.0W EPAC 15 NA

[Nancy Smar]

1. A broad area of low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala and is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 95, 2019081512, , BEST, 0, 100N, 850W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS023, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,
EP, 95, 2019081518, , BEST, 0, 100N, 860W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS023, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,
EP, 95, 2019081600, , BEST, 0, 100N, 870W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS023, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,
EP, 95, 2019081606, , BEST, 0, 100N, 880W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS023, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,
EP, 95, 2019081612, , BEST, 0, 100N, 890W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, SPAWNINVEST, ep742019 to ep952019,

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Ntxw]

Has potential.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting that they will have recon.

[Kingarabian]

Well finally something real to track. Hopefully it goes out to sea and spares western Mexico.

[Astromanía]

I'm exited about this system, most likely another major hurricane coming that will bring more ACE this season finally, but I'm a little worried about Baja California Sur, I think it will get something close but we will see what models say in the next hours and how this develops with time.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Chris90]

Very interesting that they will have recon.

Yeah, it seems to me they must think this has a pretty good shot at developing into a strong system, it seems like it would be a waste of funds to fly a research mission into an invest they didn't expect to intensify at least decently. They've got 2 different flights scheduled for tomorrow, and I wonder if they're planning to do a few more flights after that during the lifetime for this system.

Does anyone know exactly what these research flights are for? Are they planning on studying tropical cyclone intensification and intensity changes? Something else?

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952019 08/17/19 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 36 41 49 57 66 72 82 87
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 36 41 49 57 66 72 82 58
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 34 39 45 54 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 13 20 25 23 22 20 14 10 7 8 6 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 2 2 3 6 3 4 0 -2 0 1 -2
SHEAR DIR 15 40 61 68 63 43 32 18 8 337 312 320 325
SST (C) 28.2 28.9 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.7 30.8 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 144 152 160 163 164 165 166 168 168 167 172 172 162
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -52.8 -53.4 -52.8 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 8 5 8 5 8 6 11 8
700-500 MB RH 76 73 72 73 71 74 76 75 76 78 78 77 76
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 8 7 9 10 13 15 19 21
850 MB ENV VOR 37 50 55 49 46 49 50 49 43 36 14 29 36
200 MB DIV 47 48 62 64 40 44 63 70 88 57 86 57 50
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 1 1
LAND (KM) 280 259 238 224 214 230 297 267 243 195 139 56 -49
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.7 14.5 15.8 17.5 19.4
LONG(DEG W) 91.3 91.8 92.3 92.7 93.1 93.9 94.8 96.1 97.5 99.0 100.7 102.4 104.1
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 7 8 10 11 12 13
HEAT CONTENT 11 22 35 40 40 39 39 38 45 45 39 34 21

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 38. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 4. 8. 11. 16. 17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 11. 16. 24. 32. 41. 47. 57. 62.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 91.3

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/17/19 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.09 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/17/19 12 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[Kingarabian]

GFS and Euro continue to be pretty bullish on this system. This will once again put the conditions in the EPAC to test. If nothing materializes, then it pretty much validates the less than ideal conditions this season.

[Kingarabian]

Some noticeable curvature:


Per the models, it's about 36 hours from development.

[cycloneye]

Something is happening to the satelite that has not worked since late this morning.

[Kingarabian]

Something is happening to the satelite that has not worked since late this morning.

Oops it's 6 hours off.

[cycloneye]

Found an updated image from NRL. Looks better than this morning.

[Chris90]

https://weather.us/satellite/931-w-107- ... 2120z.html

I've been using the custom zoom for GOES-16 at weather.us today instead. This one seems to be doing fine and updating normally.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. NOAA and the National Science Foundation are
currently conducting a research mission in this system, and the
data from the mission indicate that the circulation remains broad
and elongated, and surface pressures are relatively high. Still,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel
to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, moisture
associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

I suspect shear values here may be off.

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952019 08/17/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 35 44 52 65 72 80 87 96
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 35 44 52 65 72 80 73 67
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 38 43 50 53 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 22 25 22 22 20 17 14 11 10 10 10 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 2 4 4 3 2 -2 -3 -2 0 -3
SHEAR DIR 39 64 67 62 48 33 17 9 328 313 328 290 337
SST (C) 28.8 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.4 30.1 30.5 31.0 30.1 31.0
POT. INT. (KT) 150 156 161 164 165 165 165 168 166 171 173 168 173
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 7 6 7 7 9 9 10
700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 70 71 74 73 77 75 79 75 74 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 7 8 7 11 12 16 18 21 23 29
850 MB ENV VOR 44 47 46 40 41 54 50 51 42 24 11 38 35
200 MB DIV 37 48 49 36 18 67 64 103 75 80 70 48 27
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 2 -1 0 0 2
LAND (KM) 253 236 222 198 202 260 312 274 226 177 102 -10 61
LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.0 13.3 14.0 15.2 17.0 19.1 21.4
LONG(DEG W) 91.6 92.0 92.4 92.8 93.2 94.2 95.4 96.8 98.4 100.2 102.2 104.3 106.1
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 12 13 14 15
HEAT CONTENT 19 29 37 39 39 38 36 42 46 41 37 26 29

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 38. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 13. 15. 19. 21. 26.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 19. 27. 40. 47. 55. 62. 71.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 91.6

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/17/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 3.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 1.4% 8.7% 32.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 2.9% 11.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/17/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##