EPAC: IVO - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952019 08/20/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 58 65 72 73 72 70 66
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 58 65 72 73 72 70 66
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 33 38 45 51 54 53 48 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 18 18 17 18 13 12 19 17 20 13 8 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 1 -3 -1 0 0 4 4 0 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 43 34 30 33 28 35 40 37 50 49 77 79 130
SST (C) 30.6 30.3 30.0 30.4 30.8 29.9 30.4 29.9 29.5 28.8 27.9 27.5 24.7
POT. INT. (KT) 171 168 166 170 172 165 170 164 159 152 142 138 109
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.4 -52.6 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 7 8 6 8 7 6 4 4 2 2
700-500 MB RH 77 79 80 79 81 81 78 78 78 77 73 66 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 10 10 13 14 16 17 17 15 13
850 MB ENV VOR 77 81 73 66 55 34 57 45 36 7 5 -13 -9
200 MB DIV 100 89 104 83 79 59 52 35 65 47 25 -1 -6
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -5 -4 -2 -6 4 3 2 0 -2
LAND (KM) 201 214 240 285 330 347 418 488 518 405 335 305 202
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 97.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 8 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 41 43 39 41 54 33 29 21 17 11 6 7 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 31. 34. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 12. 12. 12. 10. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 33. 40. 47. 48. 47. 45. 41.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 97.0

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/20/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.96 6.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.10 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 4.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.39 2.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.9% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 20.1% 22.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 7.3% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 11.5% 54.8% 40.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 12.5%
Consensus: 0.2% 11.3% 8.0% 0.5% 0.1% 10.6% 25.8% 17.6%
DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 8.0% 18.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/20/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

GFS and Euro back off.

[SoupBone]

GFS and Euro back off.

Hmmm, how will this affect the wave heading into the GoM now? 95E would have impacted the system with westerly shear.

[Chris90]

Hurricane Hunters are flying another research mission currently, and they've found 700mb flight level winds of 37kts with an unflagged 33kt SFMR peak. There's a chance they haven't sampled the strongest winds either.
If they find a circulation, this could be a tropical storm already.

[Yellow Evan]

Development chances are probably dropping with this. This looks worse than yesterday and model support is dropping.

[Kingarabian]

Yet another system that was supposed to develop and ends up not developing.

[cycloneye]

Yet another system that was supposed to develop and ends up not developing.

And more,it was going to be a bonifide hurricane. Season keeps dissapointing.

[Kingarabian]

Yet another system that was supposed to develop and ends up not developing.

And more,it was going to be a bonifide hurricane. Season keeps dissapointing.

Yeah I'm thinking the reason is due to systems not being able to push out deep convection on a consistent basis. So any sort of wind shear will cause disruption.

[al78]

This year is reminding me somewhat of 2010, when it was really really difficult for significant tropical cyclones to form anywhere in the northern hemisphere (apart from NE Pacific Celia). The difference being in that year, the Atlantic really started getting going about this time in August, whereas it still looks dead so far this month.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico are beginning to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system
could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southern Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

20/1800 UTC 14.4N 101.4W T1.5/1.5 95E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952019 08/20/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 35 41 53 62 66 67 63 61 56 49
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 35 41 53 62 66 67 63 61 56 49
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 47 46 43 38 34 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 15 17 16 14 15 16 16 12 4 3 15 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -1 0 8 7 3 0 0 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 18 17 20 33 55 42 60 45 45 49 272 213 187
SST (C) 30.4 30.8 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 28.6 27.7 26.9 24.9 23.5 21.3
POT. INT. (KT) 171 173 169 167 165 164 162 150 141 132 111 97 74
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 7 7 8 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 79 78 77 77 73 69 62 60 55 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 11 13 14 17 17 18 16 15 13 11
850 MB ENV VOR 71 71 62 49 55 67 61 39 22 26 14 7 1
200 MB DIV 94 76 51 45 56 57 31 43 41 8 -25 -15 -27
700-850 TADV -3 -4 -10 -7 -3 -6 2 0 1 0 -4 -1 0
LAND (KM) 314 338 353 398 461 546 607 510 441 391 373 370 289
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 101.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 13 13 12 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 45 57 48 36 27 20 19 11 6 3 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 33. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 9. 11. 8. 7. 4. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 16. 28. 37. 41. 42. 38. 36. 31. 24.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 101.0

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/20/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 6.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.23 1.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 3.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.38 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.1% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 19.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.1% 28.5% 12.4% 6.1% 6.4% 27.8% 46.8% 23.3%
Bayesian: 0.1% 5.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 2.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Consensus: 1.1% 19.3% 11.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.3% 22.7% 8.4%
DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 22.0% 13.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/20/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Chris90]

I think this is worthy of classification now. There seems to be a decent circulation and there's convection consolidated on the center with cold cloud tops. Based on the earlier hurricane hunter data, I'd name it and go with an initial intensity of 35kts. Might not perform as well as we were hoping, but I think it's there. Maybe we'll get a half decent storm out of this, 50-55kts.

[galaxy401]

Very broad and large system. Can it please come up to Arizona?

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952019 08/21/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 39 46 57 68 71 70 69 65 59 53
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 39 46 57 68 71 70 69 65 59 53
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 42 48 51 51 48 43 39 34
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 10 9 19 16 19 10 4 8 10 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 0 3 6 4 3 1 -1 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 17 27 37 44 47 34 45 57 65 119 190 194 177
SST (C) 30.8 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.4 28.6 27.9 26.1 24.8 23.7 22.3
POT. INT. (KT) 173 169 168 164 162 164 159 150 143 124 110 99 84
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.2 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 0
700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 76 77 76 75 73 67 66 62 61 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 15 17 19 22 22 21 22 20 17 14
850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 59 64 88 75 63 41 25 6 -8 -21 -33
200 MB DIV 97 63 66 65 81 51 25 27 3 -12 -18 -34 -1
700-850 TADV -2 -4 -6 -5 -3 0 3 -10 0 -2 1 0 1
LAND (KM) 350 373 414 467 516 656 626 572 562 496 490 492 523
LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 13 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 58 48 34 25 20 20 18 11 8 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 32. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 10. 13. 13. 14. 11. 7. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 14. 21. 32. 43. 46. 45. 44. 40. 34. 28.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 102.5

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/21/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 6.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.41 3.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 3.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.33 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.7% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 20.4% 20.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.8% 32.3% 15.5% 8.4% 5.1% 28.1% 42.8% 22.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 1.2% 1.4%
Consensus: 1.0% 21.6% 13.5% 3.0% 1.8% 16.5% 21.5% 7.8%
DTOPS: 0.0% 12.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 9.0% 25.0% 27.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/21/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

21/0000 UTC 14.4N 102.6W T1.0/1.5 95E -- East Pacific

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast
of Mexico continue to show signs of becoming better organized.
Additional development is anticipated and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and just offshore of
the coast of Mexico. This system could produce locally heavy
rainfall along portions of the coast of southern Mexico during the
next day or two. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Tailspin]

looks a bit troughy.

[cycloneye]

TXPZ21 KNES 211223
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)

B. 21/1200Z

C. 15.1N

D. 106.5W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A CENTER UNDER A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.0 USING
THE SHEAR PATTERN. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/0902Z 15.1N 105.9W AMSR2


...TURK