EPAC: IVO - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

I suspect shear values here may be off.

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952019 08/17/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 35 44 52 65 72 80 87 96
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 35 44 52 65 72 80 73 67
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 38 43 50 53 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 22 25 22 22 20 17 14 11 10 10 10 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 2 4 4 3 2 -2 -3 -2 0 -3
SHEAR DIR 39 64 67 62 48 33 17 9 328 313 328 290 337
SST (C) 28.8 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.4 30.1 30.5 31.0 30.1 31.0
POT. INT. (KT) 150 156 161 164 165 165 165 168 166 171 173 168 173
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 7 6 7 7 9 9 10
700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 70 71 74 73 77 75 79 75 74 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 7 8 7 11 12 16 18 21 23 29
850 MB ENV VOR 44 47 46 40 41 54 50 51 42 24 11 38 35
200 MB DIV 37 48 49 36 18 67 64 103 75 80 70 48 27
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 2 -1 0 0 2
LAND (KM) 253 236 222 198 202 260 312 274 226 177 102 -10 61
LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.0 13.3 14.0 15.2 17.0 19.1 21.4
LONG(DEG W) 91.6 92.0 92.4 92.8 93.2 94.2 95.4 96.8 98.4 100.2 102.2 104.3 106.1
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 12 13 14 15
HEAT CONTENT 19 29 37 39 39 38 36 42 46 41 37 26 29

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8

Might have merit as the GFS has 95E weaker through 5 days compared to the past 6 runs.

[cycloneye]

EP, 95, 2019081800, , BEST, 0, 120N, 915W, 25, 1010, DB

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952019 08/18/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 42 50 59 62 70 72 78
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 42 50 59 62 56 37 30
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 32 35 34 29 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 24 26 24 24 22 18 8 7 6 8 6 13 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 5 5 2 1 0 -1 -2 -5 -4 -6
SHEAR DIR 62 63 53 51 42 22 8 348 327 304 260 288 297
SST (C) 29.0 29.5 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.1 28.8 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 152 157 161 163 163 163 163 167 170 171 166 152 151
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.8 -53.2 -53.8 -53.2 -53.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 7 5 7 4 8 5 10 6 11
700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 72 73 75 77 78 78 78 78 79 76
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 10 9 11 11 14
850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 43 46 56 57 57 52 44 15 32 36 42
200 MB DIV 49 56 46 39 47 57 89 101 89 71 55 62 54
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 2
LAND (KM) 218 201 183 175 178 232 307 294 202 83 -27 -150 -272
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 12.9 12.8 12.8 13.1 14.0 15.4 17.0 18.7 20.3
LONG(DEG W) 91.5 91.9 92.2 92.5 92.8 93.5 94.5 95.7 97.1 98.5 99.7 100.6 101.1
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 4 6 7 9 10 10 10 7
HEAT CONTENT 20 28 34 37 39 39 35 37 43 49 31 16 16

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 38. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 7. 7. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 17. 25. 34. 38. 45. 47. 53.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 91.5

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/18/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.28 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.4% 14.2% 46.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2%
Consensus: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 4.7% 16.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/18/19 00 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by early next week, and a tropical
depression is expected to form on Monday or Tuesday while the low
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of
Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
Guatemala have changed little in organization since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday while the low
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of
Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[NDG]

The trend by the GFS is that development will be later than earlier, very relentless easterly shear from the death ridge to the north.
Near 20 knot shear over it for at least the next 72 hours.

[NotSparta]

The trend by the GFS is that development will be later than earlier, very relentless easterly shear from the death ridge to the north.
Near 20 knot shear over it for at least the next 72 hours.

Yeah, another day, another EPAC storm being hit with easterly shear

[cycloneye]

I was looking for this system to get a lot of ACE but things dont look promising as models are dialing back intensity.More dissapointments for the basin.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952019 08/18/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 32 39 45 54 59 66 69 75
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 32 39 45 54 59 41 31 28
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 29 33 29 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 23 23 21 17 15 9 10 9 4 6 8 17 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 6 5 4 0 -2 -4 -1 -2 -2 0 1
SHEAR DIR 46 43 41 25 11 19 311 289 297 291 307 322 5
SST (C) 29.6 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 30.4 30.8 30.7 30.9 29.5 28.7 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 162 161 160 160 168 170 170 170 159 151 151
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 5 7 5 7 6 8 7 9 9 11
700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 74 74 78 77 81 78 79 76 77 71
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 7 9 8 10 10 13 13 17
850 MB ENV VOR 40 60 67 64 53 56 41 34 -1 0 -10 14 -17
200 MB DIV 38 55 80 73 49 92 45 85 67 60 62 66 35
700-850 TADV 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 -1 3 4 2 0 0
LAND (KM) 222 218 223 251 278 338 291 202 102 18 -78 -140 -259
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.6 13.1 14.0 15.1 16.3 17.6 18.8 20.3
LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.8 93.1 93.4 93.8 94.7 95.9 97.1 98.2 99.1 99.9 100.9 101.6
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 6 7 8 8 7 8 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 37 41 42 41 39 35 39 45 46 42 22 14 15

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 38. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 29. 34. 41. 44. 50.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 92.4

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/18/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.36 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 18.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 3.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 4.5% 5.3% 24.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2%
Consensus: 0.1% 6.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 6.9% 8.0% 8.5%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 5.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/18/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala
border remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected
to become more conducive for development during the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday or
Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph
parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with the low
is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding
across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS at least pushes genesis forward by a bit.

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday while the low moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.
Moisture associated with this disturbance could produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Shear is relentess.

TXPZ21 KNES 190023
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)

B. 19/0000Z

C. 12.6N

D. 92.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF
CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL

[cycloneye]

1. An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
mid-week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with
this disturbance could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952019 08/19/19 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 57 68 76 85 87 90 89
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 57 68 54 36 30 28 27
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 49 44 32 28 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 20 16 14 11 11 7 8 3 10 11 19 15 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 2 -2 0 -1 0 0 -4 0 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 32 18 14 6 5 356 338 360 335 330 4 13 22
SST (C) 30.5 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 29.2 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 169 168 171 170 169 169 156 150 153 152 150
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 5 4 8 5 10 7 12 9 14 10
700-500 MB RH 73 73 78 80 78 81 81 81 80 78 79 75 75
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 11 12 14 17 19 20 19
850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 74 73 61 53 25 52 39 36 22 -23 -43
200 MB DIV 58 37 62 83 73 69 78 75 43 43 32 50 25
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 -2 -1 0 3 0 2 0 3
LAND (KM) 153 175 227 235 190 146 97 36 -46 -168 -220 -204 -245
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.6 15.6 16.9 18.4 19.6 20.8 22.0 23.1
LONG(DEG W) 93.2 93.7 94.4 95.2 96.0 97.6 99.3 100.9 101.9 102.5 103.1 103.4 103.4
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 9 8 6 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 55 62 53 39 38 42 39 32 18 15 16 16 15

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 827 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 31. 34. 38. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 17. 18. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 32. 43. 51. 60. 62. 65. 64.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 93.2

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/19/19 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 6.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.29 2.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 3.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.45 2.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.89 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.7% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 29.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.0% 24.7% 14.7% 7.0% 2.5% 30.1% 57.0% 61.6%
Bayesian: 0.6% 3.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 2.3% 9.1% 8.4%
Consensus: 1.2% 18.2% 12.7% 2.4% 0.9% 18.1% 31.7% 23.3%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/19/19 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the southern coast
Mexico have become better organized during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
two while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel
to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with this disturbance
could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across
portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952019 08/19/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 38 48 60 69 76 80 83 86 87
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 34 38 48 60 69 66 60 63 43 32
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 48 57 50 58 42 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 16 13 8 8 9 11 15 15 9 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 5 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -7 -7
SHEAR DIR 30 32 30 28 21 11 360 357 11 3 353 344 300
SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.1 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.2 30.7 30.4 29.4 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 169 170 166 171 171 172 167 171 169 158 149
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 4 7 6 8 8 10 9 11 10 10
700-500 MB RH 74 79 80 80 78 81 79 79 79 80 77 77 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 9 13 13 13 14 16 16 15
850 MB ENV VOR 71 76 74 66 54 25 19 40 33 55 31 57 40
200 MB DIV 79 94 84 95 92 84 71 51 49 69 29 83 7
700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 -2 -5 -1 0 4 4 4 0 0
LAND (KM) 263 234 243 235 229 222 201 102 0 24 15 -59 -149
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.8 15.9 17.5 19.3 21.0 22.9 24.5 26.2
LONG(DEG W) 95.3 96.1 96.9 97.7 98.5 100.3 102.2 103.8 104.9 105.7 106.3 106.9 107.2
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 38 37 42 44 43 39 36 31 30 30 28 18 5

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 7. 9. 10. 13. 12. 10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 23. 35. 44. 51. 55. 58. 61. 62.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 95.3

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/19/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 6.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 2.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 4.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.37 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.0% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 24.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.5% 14.8% 8.2% 3.7% 1.1% 26.8% 69.0% 60.5%
Bayesian: 0.1% 3.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 3.9% 14.5%
Consensus: 0.5% 14.9% 10.5% 1.3% 0.4% 16.7% 32.4% 25.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/19/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Chris90]

This is looking a lot better today. There has been some good convection and a circulation appears to be tightening up. I'm starting to think we might actually get a decent hurricane out of this.

Just so we're clear on what I consider a decent hurricane east of 120W this year: 70kts.

[cycloneye]

1. A low pressure system located less than 200 miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
cloudiness of thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph, parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico.
Moisture associated with this disturbance could produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

TXPZ21 KNES 200027
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)

B. 20/0000Z

C. 13.4N

D. 97.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...2.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PAT ARE
1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[Yellow Evan]

Probably still elongated diagonally but it's somewhat close to classifiable at this point.