EPAC: INVEST 97E

[Kingarabian]

Just seen it on the Navy page.

[cycloneye]

EP, 97, 2019081718, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1131W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS025, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
EP, 97, 2019081800, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1142W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS025, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
EP, 97, 2019081806, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1153W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS025, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
EP, 97, 2019081812, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1163W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS025, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
EP, 97, 2019081818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1174W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, SPAWNINVEST, ep762019 to ep972019,

[cycloneye]

A low pressure system located more 900 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large
area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to gradually improve, and a tropical depression could form
during the next few days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972019 08/18/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 29 31 37 45 52 58 63 67 67 67
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 29 31 37 45 52 58 63 67 67 67
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 30 32 34 36 38 41 43 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 11 13 17 17 10 8 6 6 6 8 6 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 8 7 2 -3 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 58 51 43 36 46 68 89 91 64 71 72 105 18
SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 27.6 27.9 27.8 27.4 28.2 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 150 151 151 150 152 141 144 143 139 147 153
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 67 70 71 70 69 66 64 67 66 68 65 63 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 8
850 MB ENV VOR -4 1 6 0 1 -4 -4 8 11 21 44 67 56
200 MB DIV 105 121 123 78 62 47 10 19 6 41 42 59 33
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -7 -5 -5 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -4
LAND (KM) 1500 1555 1608 1649 1682 1735 1832 1976 2128 2321 2096 1838 1583
LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.5 14.2 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.4
LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.2 120.1 121.0 121.9 123.7 125.7 127.9 130.3 132.9 135.5 138.0 140.5
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 33 25 22 26 31 26 22 15 20 14 15 20 26

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 12. 20. 27. 33. 38. 42. 42. 42.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 118.2

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 08/18/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 4.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.27 2.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 4.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.88 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 19.9% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 2.0% 9.5% 15.8%
Bayesian: 0.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Consensus: 0.5% 8.2% 6.8% 0.2% 0.0% 6.8% 9.8% 5.3%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 08/18/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

TXPZ22 KNES 190018
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 19/0000Z

C. 12.4N

D. 118.4W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND LLC GREATER THAN 2/10 AND RESULTS
IN DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL

[Chris90]

I'm feeling somewhat decent about this invest just because of its location. Maybe if conditions line up we can pull off another Barbara or Erick.
On the other hand, invests have really enjoyed going poof incredibly fast these past couple weeks, so I'm just sitting back and watching.

[Yellow Evan]

I'll believe we'll get a tropical cyclone based on nowcasting at least for now.

[NotSparta]

Some nice rotation, appears there is some northerly shear but definitely appears that environment is better for this one than the other invests, wouldn't be surprised to see a TC out of this

[cycloneye]

A well-defined low pressure system located more 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

TXPZ22 KNES 191220
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 19/1200Z

C. 13.3N

D. 119.6W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SHEARED PATTERN WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND
A CENTER LESS THAN 75 NM FROM SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION YIELDS A
DT OF 1.5. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972019 08/19/19 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 31 36 42 48 51 53 57 60
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 31 36 42 48 51 53 57 60
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 29 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 20 18 14 11 10 6 3 1 4 7 11 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 44 63 76 97 100 113 135 195 320 272 256 235 218
SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.8 27.0 27.0 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 151 152 152 146 139 139 136 134 136 136 139
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 5
700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 63 63 62 63 61 61 58 56 54 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 13 13 14 16 19
850 MB ENV VOR -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 8 20 52 67 70 69 82
200 MB DIV 57 32 43 23 20 -1 4 40 18 40 17 21 36
700-850 TADV -7 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 0 1 -1 1 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 1449 1476 1493 1541 1598 1754 1912 2146 2006 1636 1263 898 602
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 16.0 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.5 17.3 16.9
LONG(DEG W) 119.4 120.2 121.2 122.4 123.6 126.3 129.2 132.4 135.9 139.4 143.0 146.6 149.8
STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 12 12 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 16 15
HEAT CONTENT 17 17 21 26 18 18 11 13 13 6 9 9 8

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 10. 12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 28. 32. 35.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 119.4

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 08/19/19 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 2.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.19 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.81 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.1% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 14.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 4.8% 0.2%
DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 1.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 08/19/19 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure system located a little over 900 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
mid-week, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972019 08/19/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 37 43 50 53 53 54 58
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 37 43 50 53 53 54 58
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 12 9 6 2 3 5 9 12 11 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 2 4 1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 56 82 103 100 100 119 167 6 289 279 274 236 221
SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 150 148 138 137 133 131 131 133 134 142
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 4 4 5 6
700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 62 61 62 59 58 56 54 52 52 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 10 12 12 14 14 14 14 17
850 MB ENV VOR 0 -2 3 1 4 12 22 48 66 66 66 79 67
200 MB DIV 32 35 26 22 2 5 24 25 24 12 22 33 34
700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 2 0 3 -1 -1 -2 4
LAND (KM) 1482 1502 1554 1622 1701 1849 2055 2109 1739 1371 1000 656 367
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.7 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.3
LONG(DEG W) 120.6 121.6 122.8 124.1 125.5 128.4 131.4 134.9 138.4 141.9 145.5 148.9 152.2
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 14 14 15 15 17 17 17 17 15 16
HEAT CONTENT 18 24 22 16 19 8 16 4 4 2 7 5 13

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 25. 28. 28. 29. 33.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 120.6

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 08/19/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 2.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.29 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 0.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.1% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 15.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 5.2% 0.2%
DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 1.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 08/19/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

19/1800 UTC 14.1N 120.6W T1.5/1.5 97E -- East Pacific

[Kingarabian]

Ah, a 2019 EPAC special!

[Nancy Smar]

WTPN22 PHNC 192330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
275 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 119.4W TO 16.5N 136.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191918Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 120.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED AT 14.0N
120.6W, APPROXIMATELY 624 NM WEST SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202330Z.
//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

2. Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive
for development by mid-week, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next few days while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

20/0000 UTC 14.6N 120.9W T1.5/1.5 97E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972019 08/20/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 28 30 34 39 40 41 44 43 44
V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 28 30 34 39 40 41 44 43 44
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 21 21 21 22
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 20 17 12 11 8 1 2 4 7 15 21 27
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 4 3 1 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -3
SHEAR DIR 78 105 104 111 116 104 96 10 265 253 238 237 227
SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.8 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 145 142 135 135 133 131 131 130 134 140
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 7
700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 59 60 60 59 57 55 52 47 44 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 8 8 10
850 MB ENV VOR -4 2 -1 0 -1 2 26 52 58 56 49 48 21
200 MB DIV 28 21 29 21 11 15 29 13 28 27 34 22 6
700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 1 1 0 3 -1 1 0 -2 6 2
LAND (KM) 1458 1485 1544 1621 1711 1882 2131 1987 1629 1249 881 506 161
LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.6
LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.2 123.4 124.8 126.3 129.3 132.6 136.0 139.4 143.0 146.5 150.1 153.6
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 15 14 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 16
HEAT CONTENT 18 19 14 13 13 6 7 7 3 3 6 4 13

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. 0. 0. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 14. 15. 16. 19. 18. 19.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 121.2

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 08/20/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 1.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.22 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 0.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.95 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.7% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 14.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 4.8% 0.2%
DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 08/20/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

While model support for this has been dropping, I'd say this is still likely to develop given it's not that far off, though an ASCAT pass from 17z suggests it lacks a well defined center.