ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#281 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:08 pm

MGC wrote:No development until low moves over water or center reforms offshore.....MGC


Or, quite possibly, "no development" would suffice. Certainly not today. Models have backed off on development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#282 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:20 pm

Pending the Euro forecast, I'm leaning strongly towards no development with this--the background state over water simply isn't favorable this year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#283 Postby DioBrando » Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:21 pm

Hammy wrote:Pending the Euro forecast, I'm leaning strongly towards no development with this--the background state over water simply isn't favorable this year.


30 degrees Celcius.
High oceanic heat content.
Last edited by DioBrando on Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#284 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:23 pm

CW0262 wrote:Port St Lucie FL North Fork St Lucie River Observations :D

http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=CW0262
Dont let your guard down, convection on the increase in south florida

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#285 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:30 pm

Im in West Palm right now and the storms passing through at the moment are intense. Very heavy rain and lightening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#286 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:33 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Hammy wrote:Pending the Euro forecast, I'm leaning strongly towards no development with this--the background state over water simply isn't favorable this year.


30 degrees Celcius.
High oceanic heat content.


But high shear and drier air nearby, as well as looking like it might get elongated by the approaching trough.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#287 Postby DioBrando » Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:59 pm

Hammy wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
Hammy wrote:Pending the Euro forecast, I'm leaning strongly towards no development with this--the background state over water simply isn't favorable this year.


30 degrees Celcius.
High oceanic heat content.


But high shear and drier air nearby, as well as looking like it might get elongated by the approaching trough.


Which will both peter out. ;)
Things are ever-constantly changing!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#288 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:05 pm

Look at long-ranged Melbourne radar. Strongest vorticity by far is ~100 miles due east of the radar site. The beam's at 10kft so not sure how much of that is at the surface.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#289 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:08 pm

This will still likely develop but a hurricane is looking less likely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#290 Postby artist » Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:26 pm

The low near Naples appears to be dipping right into the edge of the gulf.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#291 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:04 pm

Melboune NWS Radar and Visible Satelitte Imagery shows that a potential new LLC may be taking shape about 100.miles east of Melbourne, FL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#292 Postby sikkar » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:07 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Melboune NWS Radar and Visible Satelitte Imagery shows that a potential new LLC may be taking shape about 100.miles east of Melbourne, FL.


It kinda looks like a depression to my untrained eyes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#293 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:10 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#294 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:12 pm

The weak low near Naples can be ignored. I think a new center will form closer to the convection tomorrow. Could become a TD/TS tomorrow night.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#295 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:36 pm

A lot of posts here sway every model run. The same posters that said cat 5 Michael would be a sheared October storm.

Tropics are heating up and I don't think August will go without a named storm like some have forecasted
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#296 Postby DioBrando » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:37 pm

Ivanhater wrote:A lot of posts here sway every model run. The same posters that said cat 5 Michael would be a sheared October storm.

Tropics are heating up and I don't think August will go without a named storm like some have forecasted

chantal was here yesterday ;)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#297 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:50 pm

sikkar wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Melboune NWS Radar and Visible Satelitte Imagery shows that a potential new LLC may be taking shape about 100.miles east of Melbourne, FL.


It kinda looks like a depression to my untrained eyes.


Yes. I think the new LLC is just on the edge of that convective complex just north of the NW Bahamas. I am confident we finally have our developing cyclone and it should go on and be designated in the nextt 12-24 hours if not sooner.Likely will be TS by end of tomorrow. (Sunday evening)
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#298 Postby crownweather » Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:51 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:A lot of posts here sway every model run. The same posters that said cat 5 Michael would be a sheared October storm.

Tropics are heating up and I don't think August will go without a named storm like some have forecasted

chantal was here yesterday ;)


And now we have Dorian. 2 Named Storms in August.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#299 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:27 pm

:::
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#300 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:28 pm

crownweather wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:A lot of posts here sway every model run. The same posters that said cat 5 Michael would be a sheared October storm.

Tropics are heating up and I don't think August will go without a named storm like some have forecasted

chantal was here yesterday ;)


And now we have Dorian. 2 Named Storms in August.



And maybe Erin soon.
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