ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

LLC forming near 29/79

This could be starting to develop and within the next 24 hours it maybe a tropical depression/storm.

[Ivanhater]

chantal was here yesterday

And now we have Dorian. 2 Named Storms in August.

And maybe Erin soon.

If you read the posts just 5 days ago, the tropics should be dead now lol

[DioBrando]

And now we have Dorian. 2 Named Storms in August.

And maybe Erin soon.

If you read the posts just 5 days ago, the tropics should be dead now lol

sooo true

fernand anyone?

[floridasun78]

i think 98l done look very weak weather here it good no rain in miami look like summer type weather

[Ubuntwo]

i think 98l done look very weak weather here it good no rain in miami look like summer type weather

Of course. The system's 200 miles NNE of Miami.

[jlauderdal]

i think 98l done look very weak weather here it good no rain in miami look like summer type weather

We dodged it in sofla, very fortunate.


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[tropicwatch]

Didn't someone say that some energy could split off and go to the gulf? Well looking at the 850mb vorticity map that might not be to far off base.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[cycloneye]

1. A trough of low pressure extending from the coast of south-central
Florida northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred
miles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves northeastward over the Atlantic, offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Interests along the coasts of
South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress
of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[GCANE]

UL trough has weakened today.
LL vorts are starting to situate to the SW of it.
Ideal location for a possible GOM spin up.
Watching this in the morning.

[Hammy]

I know a few posters said it was a possibility but is it actually splitting into two systems now?

[GCANE]

925mb Heights
Low pressure could develop in the greatest height fall as circled in red

[GCANE]

:uarrow: I know a few posters said it was a possibility but is it actually splitting into two systems now?

Looks like chances are increasing

[GCANE]

Convection firing offshore in 4000 CAPE air

[GCANE]

Just speculating, but this moist area seems to be where convection is heading.

[Hammy]

NHC lowering the chances, which generally means it's over as they don't usually drop them a lot suddenly.

[northjaxpro]

Too much dry air entrainment with 98L. The UL Trough really put the whammy on.it.

[GCANE]

Surface low is better defined in the Gulf, 850mb vort is better defined in the Atlantic.
IMHO, the GOM may have the better chance because of the positioning of the UL trough relative to the LL Vorts and the fact there is more moist, unstable air in the GOM.

[Monsoonjr99]

Strange how little talk there is in this thread for a 70/80 invest. Probably because this thing has been struggling so much. I suppose this will pull a Chantal 2.0 with chances dropping to 10/10 before it suddenly forms way out near Newfoundland.

[NDG]

Definitely its circulation has become better defined, could be a TD later today. IMO.

[cycloneye]

I have not being paying attention to this invest with Dorian as my big interest so my question is I see no activity for many hours in this thread. What happened?