WPAC: FAXAI - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

90W INVEST 190829 0600 12.5N 179.5E WPAC 15 0

[euro6208]

Dateline system.

[Nancy Smar]

90W INVEST 190829 1200 12.5N 179.4E WPAC 15 1006

[Hayabusa]

Hard to say what is the future of this system, models are all over the place

[1900hurricane]

I guess they really didn't want to use 91C for some reason? The coordinates have it in the WPac, but it's still just east of the IDL.

[Nancy Smar]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 13N 179W WEST 10 KT.

[mrbagyo]

Yeah, looks still on east of IDL

[Hayabusa]

Models still don't know what to do but just posting it here out of boredom...

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 15.7N 175.9E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2019 36 16.0N 175.4E 1006 26
0000UTC 01.09.2019 48 16.5N 173.0E 1004 32
1200UTC 01.09.2019 60 16.7N 170.6E 1003 37
0000UTC 02.09.2019 72 16.9N 168.7E 1002 37
1200UTC 02.09.2019 84 16.9N 167.2E 1001 39
0000UTC 03.09.2019 96 17.0N 165.7E 998 38
1200UTC 03.09.2019 108 16.8N 164.2E 995 45
0000UTC 04.09.2019 120 16.6N 162.5E 990 49
1200UTC 04.09.2019 132 16.2N 161.0E 984 60
0000UTC 05.09.2019 144 15.9N 159.4E 975 65

[euro6208]

EURO continues to say NADA...

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 301200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/301200Z-310600ZAUG2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291951ZAUG2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.7N 179.6E, APPROXIMATELY 757 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN.
A 300915Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND LOW (<15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 90W TRACKING WESTWARD WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

90W INVEST 190830 1200 13.8N 179.4E WPAC 20 1007

[Nancy Smar]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 13.7N 179.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 175.7E, APPROXIMATELY

471 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY (AMSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED WITH

BROAD OVERCAST AND DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST. A

310305Z SSMI F-15 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS MINIMAL, SCATTERED

DEEP CONVECTION. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH

GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),

AND WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL

MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH

MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE

ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED

TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[1900hurricane]

Wouldn't be surprised to see something spin up real quick. It actually reminds me of pre-Dorian some.

[doomhaMwx]

Not entirely sure if this 90W on the UKMET...

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 16.6N 168.3E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 02.09.2019 16.6N 168.3E WEAK

12UTC 02.09.2019 17.1N 165.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2019 17.3N 163.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2019 17.6N 160.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2019 17.8N 158.7E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.09.2019 18.3N 157.2E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.09.2019 19.0N 155.7E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2019 20.0N 153.7E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2019 21.2N 150.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[1900hurricane]

I think so, but like you said, not entirely sure. Location and time sure look like it.

[doomhaMwx]

Ah yes, I was thinking it could be the low that JMA has on their forecast chart. But indeed, the location is too far from one on the UKMET guidance.

[Hayabusa]

6Z GFS has it...

[Hayabusa]

Remains low chance

ABPW10 PGTW 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/311000ZAUG2019-010600ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 175.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 174.4E, APPROXIMATELY
498 NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (AMSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED WITH
BROAD OVERCAST AND DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST. A
310516Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 90W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (31 TO 32
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[1900hurricane]

It's pretty small, but there might actually be a classifiable 20-25 kt circulation there. #Dorianing

[1900hurricane]

TXPQ21 KNES 311528
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 31/1430Z

C. 14.8N

D. 173.8E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. LARGER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU