WPAC: FAXAI - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Watching obs at Hachijojima.

[1900hurricane]

I legit found Faxai's twin.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1170514095348617216

[doomhaMwx]

Faxai could become the most intense typhoon to make landfall over Tokyo area since record keeping began (JMA data).

https://facebook.com/sayakamorinhk/phot ... 357850038/

[mrbagyo]

Yeah, pretty rare for typhoon strength systems to pass very close to the metropolis

[1900hurricane]

I'd probably tug intensity down a little for 06Z. The mid latitudes are hard for tropical cyclones, even in generally favorable conditions. I think some of the high heights and subsidence from the big ridge its in the vicinity of has really restricted its outflow today. It may be giving it one more go though, with improving radial outflow noted on water vapor imagery over the past few hours.

[1900hurricane]

I do think the chances of a track right up the Miura Peninsula on the west side of Tokyo Bay are pretty good at this point. Any little deviation could make a huge difference in impact across the most populated and industrial region of Japan.

[1900hurricane]

I imagine there is quite a bit of Dorian fatigue in the meteorological community, but I'm honestly surprised Faxai isn't getting more attention from mets on Twitter and such. It might be weakening a little, but it's still rather strong and headed for quite a large number of people. A fully tropical cyclone vs the typical recurving transitioning system is rather rare for Honshu and could catch some off guard.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1170572027314524163

[Astromanía]

I don´'t usually follow this basin even when is the most active in the world by far, but wow this capt my attention when I heard this will pass over Tokyo

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1170575116704669696

[Astromanía]

What is the expected intensity of winds at landfall?

[1900hurricane]

I don´'t usually follow this basin even when is the most active in the world by far, but wow this capt my attention when I heard this will pass over Tokyo

Yeah, it's actually a really unusual occurrence. With the powerful zonally oriented pacific jet stream usually in place, tropical cyclones are usually beginning to transition once they cross 30ºN and make it to Japan. Even the powerful borderline C3 Jebi last year had the sheared asymmetrical appearance once it reached the main Japan islands. Faxai definitely does not, and it's targeting the most densely populated part of the densely populated Honshu.

[1900hurricane]

What is the expected intensity of winds at landfall?

Category 2-3 is what most are expecting. I'm personally leaning on the higher end of that spectrum.

[mrbagyo]

[Astromanía]

It's moving fast

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1170589087352246273

[euro6208]

I don´'t usually follow this basin even when is the most active in the world by far, but wow this capt my attention when I heard this will pass over Tokyo

You are missing out on ALOT then.

Home to the biggest and strongest tropical cyclones on the planet.

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/F413HCO
Its crazy how tight this system still is. The Kuroshio current is likely fueling this now.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/o ... 335,27.983

[Astromanía]

I don´'t usually follow this basin even when is the most active in the world by far, but wow this capt my attention when I heard this will pass over Tokyo

You are missing out on ALOT then.

Home to the biggest and strongest tropical cyclones on the planet.

Yep I really need to watch this basin more but not only because of the strenght that I know those storms can have but because of the life treatening they also can have, however I usually follow the strongest cyclones from each season in this basin.