#156 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 08, 2019 3:13 pm
WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 5 NM WEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE BUT STILL PACKED DEEP CONVECTION
AND A 15NM CLOUD-FILLED OBLONG EYE AS IT MADE LANDFALL OVER HONSHU.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM JMA AND NUMEROUS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEARBY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INCREASING (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY FAXAI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND EXIT BACK
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN, ALBEIT WITH COOLER (26C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AFTER TAU 06. BY TAU 12, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacifichttps://www.weather.gov/gum/
