WPAC: LINGLING - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

2019/8/30 08:02:24: [92W Formed] 92W INVEST 190830 0600 7.7N 136.9E WPAC 15 0

nvest 90W is now a TD (JMA) or TS Fourteen-W (JTWC)
Invest 91W is now TD (former TS) Kajiki (JMA) or TD Sixteen-W (JTWC)
Invest 92W is STS Lingling (Fifteen-W)

[euro6208]

EURO less robust on this.

[euro6208]

GFS makes this into a strong typhoon passing near Okinawa.

[Nancy Smar]

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N

134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. AMSI AND A 310045Z

MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC

SURROUND BY DENSE OVERCAST AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE

WEST. A 310012Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING SURROUNDED

BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT

WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)

VWS, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD

AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT

FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15

KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[1900hurricane]

Guidance kinda likes this one.

[doomhaMwx]

00Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.1N 127.5E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 02.09.2019 17.0N 126.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2019 18.7N 125.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2019 19.7N 125.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2019 20.8N 126.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.09.2019 21.2N 126.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.09.2019 21.2N 126.9E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2019 21.4N 127.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.09.2019 21.4N 126.9E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N
134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. AMSI AND A 310045Z
MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC
SURROUND BY DENSE OVERCAST AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. A 310012Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING SURROUNDED
BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VWS, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 310600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 310600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 07N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Three TDs in the WPAC, well at least there's something I guess

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/311000ZAUG2019-010600ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N
134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. AMSI SHOWS A
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC SURROUND BY DENSE OVERCAST AND SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A 310808Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS THE LLC TO BE CONSOLIDATING WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING
IN. A 310012Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING SURROUNDED BY
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VWS, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

WTPN22 PGTW 311930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311851Z AUG 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
311900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 131.4E TO 15.8N 125.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 130.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.9N 134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 130.7E, APPROXIMATELY 332
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO CITY, THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AMPLE FLARING CONVECTION OVER A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL
FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE (10-
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO
FORMATIVE RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWEST ALONG THE PHILIPPINE COAST, HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND UKMO DELAY THE ONSET OF 25 KNOT WINDS UNTIL CLOSER TO THE
48 HOUR MARK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.3E.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1168035104192684032

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 129.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY
296 NM NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. AMSI, ALONG WITH A 010048Z
MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE
NORTH. A 010047Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED,
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS SEPARATED FROM THE
LLCC TO THE EAST. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS) SST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
AND INTENSIFY; HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION, WITH 92W POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA
ANYTIME IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[Hayabusa]

TD warning

TD
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 1 September 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 1 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°25' (13.4°)
E127°55' (127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

[1900hurricane]

JTWC renumbers this one too.

WP, 15, 2019090200, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1258E, 25, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 140, 70, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpD22019 to wp152019,

[Hayabusa]

Lingling

TS 1913 (Lingling)
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 2 September 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 2 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°05' (15.1°)
E126°05' (126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 280 km (150 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)

[1900hurricane]

I think a good move by JMA.

[1900hurricane]

Got a pair of clean ASCAT hits. JMA's 35 kt might be right on the money. Still rather asymmetrical, which is to be expected with all the low pressures associated with 91W and the monsoon trough in the South China Sea. Not much of a pressure gradient on that side of the system right now because of that.

[1900hurricane]

We have a live one. Looks to be consolidating rather quickly. Could easily be a typhoon within 24 hours.



Also, could either the thread authors or a moderator update all the corresponding thread titles that need to be updated? Many of the currently active invests/systems are at least RSMC depressions, and this one is named.