EPAC: JULIETTE - Remnants

[Astromanía]

Juliette is like telling to the former storms from this year that this is how they should do it here in EPAC

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 011827
TCSENP

A. 11E (JULIETTE)

B. 01/1800Z

C. 14.6N

D. 109.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...6/a0 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.5 AND PT IS
3.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING T NUMBER CHANGE OF 0.5 OVER 6HRS,
ALSO T NUMBER COULD NOT EXCEED 2.5 24HRS AFTER INITAL T1.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NI

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 012041
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Juliette's presentation in visible satellite imagery has continued
to improve, with hints of a banding eye now present. That said,
the convection in the cyclone's bands is not that deep, and recent
ASCAT data still supports an intensity of 50 kt.

No change was made to the track forecast. The hurricane is moving
northwest at 11 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered
over the southwestern US. All of the guidance shows that Juliette
will move west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 3 days,
with a slight decrease in forward speed. After that, differences in
the forecasted strength of the ridge result in a larger model
spread. The ECMWF shows Juliette turning nearly westward due to an
amplification of the ridge, while the GFS forecasts that the ridge
will weaken, causing Juliette to move farther north. The NHC
forecast is nearly directly between those two models and lies very
close to the model consensus at all forecast hours, but its worth
noting that confidence in the track forecast is fairly low at 96 h
and beyond.

Low wind shear, a warm underlying ocean, and sufficient
environmental moisture should allow Juliette to strengthen for the
next 2-3 days. The largest uncertainty is the rate at which the
tropical storm will strengthen, and the rapid intensification
guidance is not quite as bullish as it was 6 hours ago.
Subsequently, no major change was made to the intensity forecast,
and Juliette is still expected to become a hurricane on Monday. By
the end of the forecast, the cyclone will likely begin moving over
cooler waters and through a far more stable environment. This should
cause Juliette to weaken, particularly if it moves farther north
than the NHC official forecast, as shown by the GFS. If Juliette
takes a farther south track, like that of the ECMWF, it could
maintain its intensity longer than currently forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.9N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 020241
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Although there has been some new deep bursts of convection near the
center of circulation this evening, the banding features still
remain quite fragmented. The subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates, as well as a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis, support
holding the initial intensity at 50 kt for this advisory.

Juliette is expected to intensify at a near climatological rate
during the next 48 hours, indicative of low deep-layer shear, a
moist mid-level atmosphere, and warm oceanic sea surface
temperatures. After 72 hours, Juliette will be moving over
decreasing SSTs, and into a high statically stable marine layer air
mass which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC forecast
follows suit and is based on a blend of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the
IVCN multi-model intensity guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
300/11 kt within the east-southeasterly steering flow produced by a
mid-tropospheric ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from
the southwestern United States. The cyclone should continue moving
west-northwestward through the forecast period with some reduction
in forward speed during the next 48 hours. Beyond that time, the
cross-track spread of the model guidance increases in response to
large-scale synoptic differences in the strength of the subtropical
ridge. The ECMWF and the Canadian still indicate the cyclone
turning westward due to strengthening of the subtropical ridge,
while the GFS, HWRF, and the UKMET reflect less ridging, and
induce a more northwestward track. The new official forecast is
nudged south of the previous forecast and lies between the TVCE
consensus and the ECMWF global.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 15.4N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 20.8N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 22.4N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Astromanía]

This should be an hurricane soon if not now, its looking great!, I wonder if RI will occur but seems like it will. Where are you Kingarabian?

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 021441
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Juliette is nearing hurricane strength. An increase in deep
convection that was noted with the previous advisory has persisted,
and recent microwave data shows that the cyclone has developed a
well-defined inner-core. Given the observed increase in Juliette's
organization, the initial intensity has been increased to 60 kt,
which is supported by the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON fixes.

Juliette is forecast to quickly strengthen today, and rapid
intensification is a real possibility during the next 24 hours or so
given the seemingly favorable environment and the presence of an
low- to mid-level eye in recent microwave data. Beyond 48 h, the
cyclone should begin to weaken as it moves over cooler SSTs and
encounters a drier surrounding environment. The NHC intensity
forecast is near the multi-model consensus from 72 h through the
end of the period, but there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to
how quickly Juliette will weaken since it will be moving along
a sharp SST gradient. A track farther north than the NHC forecast
would likely cause Juliette to weaken faster than anticipated, while
a farther south track could allow it to maintain its strength for
longer.

Very little change was made to the track forecast. A deep-layer
ridge to the northeast of Juliette should keep it on a generally
west-northwestward to northwestward heading for the next 3 or 4 days
days. The track guidance is particularly tightly clustered through
that period and confidence in the forecast is high. The ridge could
amplify by day 5 and cause Juliette to turn westward, as shown most
notably by the ECMWF, though confidence is a little lower at that
time. The NHC forecast is very near TVCE and HCCA at all times and
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 16.7N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.6N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 19.4N 118.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.6N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 22.5N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 021824
TCSENP

A. 11E (JULIETTE)

B. 02/1800Z

C. 16.9N

D. 112.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING MEASURES 1.1 FOR DT=4.0. MET=3.5 PT=4.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

02/1426Z 16.6N 112.3W SSMIS


...VELASCO

[Kingarabian]

This should be an hurricane soon if not now, its looking great!, I wonder if RI will occur but seems like it will. Where are you Kingarabian?

Kingarabian is fed up with the EPAC this season.

[Yellow Evan]

This should be an hurricane soon if not now, its looking great!, I wonder if RI will occur but seems like it will. Where are you Kingarabian?

Kingarabian is fed up with the EPAC this season.

I love how you just referred to yourself in 3rd person.

[Kingarabian]

Euro has Juliette remaining a hurricane for the next 5 days. So we should get some decent ACE out of this.

[HurricaneRyan]

I always think of Juliette Capp from The Sims 2 when this name comes up so I'm glad it's just being a fish storm this year

[Extratropical94]

Now a hurricane.

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 022036
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Juliette is clearly on the upswing. A banding eye is present in
visible and IR imagery, and satellite intensity estimates around
1800 UTC were all near 65 kt. The IR presentation of the cyclone
has continued to improve since then and the initial intensity has
been raised to 70 kt, making making Juliette the 5th hurricane of
the eastern North Pacific season, and the first hurricane in that
basin since July 31.

The hurricane has quickly strengthened today and I see no reason why
this won't continue for the next 12 to 24 hours. Rapid
intensification still seems like a distinct possibility, though the
intensity guidance certainly suggests otherwise. It is surprising
that none of the guidance shows Juliette strengthening very quickly
during the next day or two despite the apparent favorable
environment the hurricane is embedded within and the current
intensification trend. The NHC forecast remains above all of the
intensity models for the first 48 hours, given the impressive
structure of the hurricane. Beyond that time, the forecast is again
close to the multi-model consensus and shows Juliette weakening
quickly as it moves over cooler SSTs and into a dry environment.

Juliette has slowed down and the initial motion is now 305/10 kt.
There is no change in the forecast reasoning, and Juliette is still
generally expected to be steered west-northwestward by an extensive
deep-layer ridge located to the north and northeast of the cyclone.
The models remain in very good agreement on the forecast of Juliette
for the first 3 or 4 days of the forecast, and confidence remains
high through that period. The global models then vary on the
strength of the ridge and the model spread is notably higher by the
end of the forecast. For now, the NHC forecast continues to split
the various models and closely follows the multi-model consensus at
all times.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 17.2N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.6N 115.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 19.1N 117.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.1N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 24.0N 131.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

Has a consistent W ring. Already better than Dorian in that regard.

[Kingarabian]

I agree. It looks solid.

[Astromanía]

I always think of Juliette Capp from The Sims 2 when this name comes up so I'm glad it's just being a fish storm this year

Ahhh The sims 2, one of my favorite games eva

[Astromanía]

Looking better IMO, should be a cat 2 tonight

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 030022
TCSENP

A. 11E (JULIETTE)

B. 03/0000Z

C. 17.5N

D. 113.5W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH A DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED
IN LG FOR A DT=5.0 INCLUDING 0.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=4.5. PT=5.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[Highteeld]

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JULIETTE EP112019 09/03/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 91 93 94 93 86 76 68 60 54 46 39
V (KT) LAND 80 87 91 93 94 93 86 76 68 60 54 46 39
V (KT) LGEM 80 87 90 90 89 84 76 67 59 51 44 39 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 5 6 7 4 6 3 8 5 5 5 19 31
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 3 3 2 5 1 3 0 3 4 4
SHEAR DIR 329 349 317 310 300 299 267 296 277 279 219 217 221
SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.5 26.6 25.4 24.7 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.1
POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 142 142 138 129 117 110 105 105 106 103
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 63 63 61 56 54 50 48 45 47 39
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 25 26 27 26 24 23 20 18 15 13
850 MB ENV VOR 7 15 7 8 18 41 51 41 21 1 1 -4 -10
200 MB DIV 53 53 43 5 15 6 -5 -17 -30 -1 28 9 -19
700-850 TADV 1 -2 -1 4 5 1 2 -6 0 0 2 6 0
LAND (KM) 708 716 736 774 792 832 927 1013 1108 1256 1429 1549 1580
LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.7 21.6 22.3 22.8 23.6 24.5
LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.4 115.2 115.9 116.6 117.9 119.6 121.3 123.6 125.9 128.1 130.1 131.8
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 10 10 8
HEAT CONTENT 12 9 8 10 10 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -11. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 6. -4. -12. -20. -26. -34. -41.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.5 113.6

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 1.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.75 6.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 2.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 5.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 31.2% 28.3% 27.6% 21.7% 14.3% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 28.3% 26.3% 21.2% 14.8% 4.5% 7.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Bayesian: 6.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 21.8% 19.1% 16.5% 12.3% 6.3% 9.6% 0.3% 0.1%
DTOPS: 32.0% 35.0% 21.0% 15.0% 10.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Highteeld]