EPAC: JULIETTE - Remnants

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 98, 2019083106, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1048W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 150, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, SPAWNINVEST, ep792019 to ep982019,

[galaxy401]

No one is really watching this for obvious reasons but it's looking likely it will develop and end the drought the EPAC is going through.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico has become better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form early next week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Astromanía]

I didn't know this has such a potential , I hope EPAC comes alive now

[Astromanía]

But seriously this came out of nowhere, I saw NOAA page few days ago and I didn't see anything here

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico have become better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next 2 or 3 days while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[hurricanes1234]

Wait what?

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For additional information see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Astromanía]

Will the systems now overperfom as is expected for the EPAC basin or what???... And then tomorrow in the morning a category 5 out of nowhere lol

[hurricanes1234]

Will the systems now overperfom as is expected for the EPAC basin or what???... And then tomorrow in the morning a category 5 out of nowhere lol

A tad too optimistic

[1900hurricane]

Oh, this is here.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982019 09/01/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 35 43 52 60 67 72 72 72 68
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 35 43 52 60 67 72 72 72 68
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 38 41 42 42 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 8 7 6 4 4 5 6 4 9 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 -1 -3 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 -1 1 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 188 213 230 272 285 313 329 300 292 292 173 166 176
SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 26.7 25.5 24.4
POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 159 158 158 155 145 144 141 138 130 119 108
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2
700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 68 69 66 65 61 57 56 55 51 43
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 14 15 17 19 21 24 26 26 26 24
850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -4 -1 0 12 1 17 18 28 33 32 39
200 MB DIV 108 73 39 22 37 36 29 32 35 23 32 -5 8
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 2 0 -5 -4 -7 0 -4 2 2 0
LAND (KM) 773 748 725 729 755 811 801 844 886 922 971 1069 1162
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 106.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 12 11 9 9 7 5 7 11 12
HEAT CONTENT 34 31 26 21 23 23 12 11 13 10 2 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 19. 18. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 18. 27. 35. 42. 47. 47. 47. 43.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 106.8

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 09/01/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 5.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.76 6.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 3.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.14 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.6% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 21.6% 21.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.9% 19.4% 11.2% 4.9% 0.9% 9.2% 14.7% 17.7%
Bayesian: 1.0% 11.5% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2%
Consensus: 1.9% 18.5% 12.6% 1.9% 0.3% 10.6% 12.0% 6.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 7.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 09/01/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

ABPZ20 KNHC 010533
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization and a
tropical cyclone could be forming several hundred miles southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico. Recent satellite-derived winds indicate that
this low pressure system is already producing surface winds to near
tropical storm force east of the center. Environmental conditions
are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or
a tropical storm is likely to form on Sunday while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at around 10 mph. For additional
information see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

HMMMM... an EPAC invest....

[Kingarabian]

It's now PTC 11.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Earlier scatterometer surface wind data around 0400 UTC indicate
that the low pressure system located about 400 nmi south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, had become better defined and that
tropical-storm-force winds were occurring in the northern
semicircle. More specifically, an ASCAT-A pass revealed peak surface
winds of 42 kt, which could have been slightly rain inflated, and an
ASCAT-C pass showed peak winds of 39 kt. Based on a blend of
these wind data, the low has been upgraded to a 40-kt tropical
storm, the tenth tropical storm of the 2019 eastern North Pacific
hurricane season.

Juliette's initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/06 kt. The
advisory position is an average of the locations of the mid- and
low-level circulation centers, in anticipation of the low-level
center noted in the ASCAT-C wind data developing closer to the
recent bursts of central deep convection. Otherwise, the track
forecast is pretty straight-forward with the NHC model guidance in
good agreement on maintaining the deep-layer ridge to the north of
Juliette throughout the forecast period. This steering pattern
should result in the cyclone moving slowly northwestward today,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in
forward speed on Monday, with a west-northwestward motion continuing
through 120 hours. The NHC forecast track lies close to the tightly
packed consensus models HCCA and TVCE.

Juliette is expected to remain within a favorable environment for
intensification to occur over the next 48-72 hours or so, which is
characterized by low vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, a
moist mid-level environment, and sea-surface temperatures (SST) of
28-29 deg C. Therefore, the official intensity forecast calls for
steady strengthening, with Juliette expected to become a hurricane
on Monday. By 96 hours, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs around
26 deg C and cooler, which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast is above the consensus intensity models HCCA and
IVCN, and is close to a blend of the statistical SHIPS intensity
models and the dynamical HWRF model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 13.2N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 14.5N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 15.7N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 16.7N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 17.6N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 18.9N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 21.8N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Astromanía]

Da f*ck!

[AnnularCane]

Not bad for a 2019 EPAC storm...so far. Of course that could change.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JULIETTE EP112019 09/01/19 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 64 70 77 85 87 84 81 75 69 66 59
V (KT) LAND 50 58 64 70 77 85 87 84 81 75 69 66 59
V (KT) LGEM 50 58 65 70 75 80 83 83 79 73 66 60 52
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 8 11 4 6 8 7 5 5 4 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 -4 -2 -3 0 -3 0 -3 0 -3
SHEAR DIR 241 251 273 303 306 297 284 253 265 180 185 152 233
SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.4 25.7 24.9 23.8
POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 158 157 145 142 141 137 127 120 112 101
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1
700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 67 66 64 62 58 55 52 47 43 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 18 20 23 24 24 26 24 23 23 19
850 MB ENV VOR 2 2 0 11 14 14 12 20 55 64 55 42 24
200 MB DIV 28 55 60 45 37 36 21 41 12 17 -6 -6 4
700-850 TADV 3 5 3 -4 -5 0 -4 1 -2 4 0 -5 0
LAND (KM) 695 701 734 785 775 767 798 840 899 969 1066 1122 1236
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.3 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.3 22.5
LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.3 110.4 111.4 112.4 114.3 115.7 117.1 118.7 120.1 121.7 123.5 125.8
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 11 9 8 8 8 8 9 11 12
HEAT CONTENT 23 20 23 25 24 11 10 12 7 1 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6.
PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 15. 13. 10. 10. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 15. 13. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 20. 27. 35. 37. 34. 31. 25. 19. 16. 9.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.9 108.2

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/01/19 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 6.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.66 8.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 4.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 7.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 6.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 31.0% 52.9% 43.0% 35.4% 22.4% 50.1% 32.2% 10.3%
Logistic: 38.2% 48.7% 37.7% 25.9% 19.0% 20.0% 10.4% 5.4%
Bayesian: 25.4% 43.4% 22.2% 9.4% 5.6% 11.2% 1.7% 0.0%
Consensus: 31.6% 48.3% 34.3% 23.5% 15.6% 27.1% 14.8% 5.2%
DTOPS: 22.0% 47.0% 36.0% 30.0% 21.0% 30.0% 16.0% 8.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/01/19 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 011238
TCSENP

A. 11E (JULIETTE)

B. 01/1200Z

C. 13.9N

D. 108.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS
2.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS BECAUSE FT COULD NOT CHANGE MORE THAN
0.5 OVER 6HRS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[Yellow Evan]

GFS makes this a near major. May be conservative.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 011441
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Juliette has been quickly organizing this morning. Satellite and
microwave data indicate that a small central dense overcast has
formed, with a large band on the east side. The current wind
speed is set to 50 kt, in line with the recent CIMSS objective
Dvorak estimate since the subjective estimates are still catching
up with this storm.

There's been a significant change to the intensity and size
forecasts of Juliette this morning, with guidance now showing a
stronger and larger hurricane in about a day. This is consistent
with the recent development of the early stages of an inner core,
which would allow Juliette to continue to intensify at a fast pace.
Indeed, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility due to an
environment of low shear and very warm water, and the various rapid
intensification indices are all showing this chance. Thus the
forecast is raised from the last one, similar to the corrected
consensus guidance, and further upward adjustments might be
required this afternoon.

Fixes show that the storm is moving faster to the northwest this
morning. A ridge to the northeast of Juliette should steer the
storm on this general path for the next several days, followed by a
slight turn toward the west-northwest at the end. Model guidance is
in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, close to the eastern
Pacific model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.3N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.3N 110.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 19.2N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake