WPAC: TAPAH - Post-Tropical

[Tailspin]

Splits in two thinks ukmet.

[Tailspin]

https://i.imgur.com/yvKDWQN.gif
Splits in two thinks ukmet.

06z GFS on par with the met

[Hayabusa]

The wpac is active but dull, the only thing that makes it worth watching is the ensembles forming a figure itself

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.5N 133.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 134.3E, APPROXIMATELY
445 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140610Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH AN
EMBEDDED CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
WEST. WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE BEING OFFSET
BY A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY NEUTRAL
DIVERGENCE DIRECTLY ABOVE THE LLC AND BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MODERATE
TO HIGH (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STRONGER WINDS IN EXCESS OF
35 KNOTS ARE EVIDENT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION, ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE WITHIN WHICH INVEST 95W IS
EMBEDDED. GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW INVEST 98W BREAKING OFF FROM
INVEST 95W AS IT TRACKS WEST. HOWEVER, THERE IS ADDED UNCERTAINTY AS
THE RECENT ECMWF AND NAVGEM RUNS SHOW THE SYSTEM NOT DEVELOPING
UNTIL REACHING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE RYUKU ISLAND CHAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 150530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140921Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 140930). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 135.3E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 135.5E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY MAINTAINS A LARGE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHOUT ANY ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. INVEST 95W REMAINS IN THE BROAD WIND FIELD
OF THE MONSOON GYRE WITH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (29 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
WIDE DISPARITY IN THE TIMING OF CONSOLIDATION . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.6N 135.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 132.6E, APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD INDISTINCT CIRCULATION LOCATED WITHIN A MONSOON
GYRE WITH LIMITED CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
160118Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED WIND FIELD WITH AN
AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. INVEST 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (25 TO 30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LIMITED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OFFSET BY
FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Models still want to develop this

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Back to TD

WWJP27 RJTD 170000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 21N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[euro6208]

Interesting

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.8N 132.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY
376 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS VERY COMPLEX AND ATYPICAL WITH A GYRE-SIZE LOW PRESSURE AREA
SITUATED SOUTH OF JAPAN AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER AND JUST
SOUTH OF JAPAN, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GYRE.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GYRE WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INTERACTING WITH, AND DISRUPTING THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. THIS IS
EVIDENT IN A 170446Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
DEFINED, SHALLOW, FRAGMENTED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD, ILL-
DEFINED CENTER. A 170019Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 20-25 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, HOWEVER, WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER
ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG (30-50 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE.
DYNAMIC GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 DAYS, PERSISTENT MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, AND WEAK
DEVELOPMENT. IN SUMMARY, GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM, WHICH HAS YET TO CONSOLIDATE AS A WARM-CORE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
BASED ON THE SURFACE WIND FIELD AND STRONG WESTERLIES, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like this time it's for real that 95W will become a TS.

TD
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 18 September 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 18 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N21°40' (21.7°)
E128°55' (128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 19 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°55' (21.9°)
E127°50' (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.9N 129.0E TO 24.6N 126.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
180830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N
128.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.6N 128.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 128.7E, APPROXIMATELY
290 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION, APPROXIMATELY 600-750 NM DIAMETER. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A
180647Z SSMI 85GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A
DEFINED, BROAD LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDING AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ADDITIONALLY, A PARTIAL
180035Z ASCAT-C IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK CORE WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO STRONG (15-
30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DIFFLUENT FLOW. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 29-30 CELSIUS. DYNAMIC GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT (212 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48)
WITH THE MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190900Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

95W after all could be another SK/Japan track again. It's ok, so that Tapah will be finally named on 95W so the next and better names Mitag, Hagibis, Neoguri will be here.

[Hayabusa]

[1900hurricane]

It's far from the most amazing thing I've ever laid eyes upon, but it's probably worthy of classification now.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 190016

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (S OF KADENA)

B. 18/2340Z

C. 22.43N

D. 128.68E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS A 1.5 WITH PT ADJUSTING
TO A 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RICHARDSON

[euro6208]

95W INVEST
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 18, 2019:

Location: 22.5°N 129.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

[euro6208]