ATL: HUMBERTO - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 77.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
Humberto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 29.4
North, longitude 77.6 West. Humberto is moving toward the northeast
near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through
Monday morning, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast with a
gradual increase in forward speed over the next 3 days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected
to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in the northwest
Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches. Humberto
may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

700 mb flight-level wind data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter
aircraft investigating Humberto indicate that the system's intensity
is now 65 kt. This is also supported by Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB, and it makes the cyclone the third hurricane of
the 2019 Atlantic season. Humberto's cloud pattern has continued to
gradually become better organized, with increasing coverage and
intensity of deep convection, and pronounced upper-level outflow
over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The hurricane is
expected to traverse warm Gulf Stream waters for the next several
days, but the dynamical models forecast a significant increase in
southwesterly vertical shear through 72 hours. In spite of the
latter unfavorable factor, the numerical guidance generally shows
intensification. This is likely at least partially due to some
baroclinic forcing caused by a strong mid-latitude trough to the
north and northeast of Humberto. The official forecast is a blend
of the latest simple and corrected consensus models and is very
similar to the previous one.

Humberto continues to move very slowly and the latest aircraft and
satellite center fixes indicate that the motion is now
northeastward or 040/3 kt. The hurricane has just rounded the
western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone and steering
currents are likely to remain weak for the next couple of days. An
east-northeastward track with a very gradual increase in forward
speed is expected for much of the period while Humberto moves
between the subtropical high and stronger westerlies associated with
the trough to the north. The new NHC track forecast is a little
slower than the previous one in 4-5 days, but not as slow as the
latest ECMWF and GFS global model runs.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 29.4N 77.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 29.8N 77.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 30.1N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 30.5N 74.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 30.8N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 31.8N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 35.0N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 39.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COASTLINE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
Humberto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 77.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected later today. An east-northeastward
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected tonight
through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Humberto is forecast to approach Bermuda late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected
to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in the northwest
Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches. Humberto
may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late Wednesday
or Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to
improve overnight, with the center embedded within a fairly
symmetric area of cold cloud tops. Although no eye is evident in
conventional satellite imagery, a ragged eye could be seen in
long-range NWS Doppler radar data from Melbourne, Florida early
in the night. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and
UW/CIMSS all support an intensity of 75 kt, and that is used as the
initial wind speed for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Humberto this
morning, and should provide a better assessment of the storm's
strength.

Humberto is likely to continue intensifying during the next day or
so while it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf stream and the
shear is not expected to be prohibitive. The updated NHC forecast
depicts a faster rate of strengthening over the first 36 hours
than before, and is at the upper end of the guidance through that
time. By 48 hours, increasing westerly shear should slow the
intensification process, but baroclinic forcing caused by a
mid-latitude trough is likely to help the cyclone remain strong
until it begins its extratropical transition later in the period.

Humberto is moving northeastward or 050/3 kt. The hurricane is
forecast to move slowly east-northeastward during the next 24
hours, around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.
After that time, Humberto should continue on an east-northeastward
heading, but at a slightly faster forward speed as a broad trough
becomes established over the western Atlantic. Later in the period,
a strong shortwave trough is forecast to dig southward which should
cause Humberto to lift northeastward. The track guidance is in good
agreement through 72 hours, and the confidence in that portion of
the forecast is quite high. After that time, the forecast
confidence decreases quite a bit as the model spread becomes
unusually large. This is the due to differs in how Humberto
interacts with the aforementioned trough. The GFS and HWRF shows
Humberto getting caught by the trough as it cuts-off over the
western Atlantic, while the ECMWF and UKMET show a more progressive
solution, and take Humberto northeastward over the north Atlantic
ahead of the trough. Given the model spread of more than 1000 n mi
at day 5, the NHC track foreast remains close to the multi-model
consensus, but confidence in the 4- and 5-day forecast is rather
low.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 29.7N 77.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 30.0N 76.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 30.3N 75.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 30.6N 73.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 31.0N 72.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 33.0N 66.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 37.0N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 40.0N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...HUMBERTO GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COASTLINE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 76.5W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
Humberto since a Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for
Bermuda later this afternoon.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 76.5 West. Humberto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through
early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is
forecast to approach Bermuda Wednesday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
Humberto could become a major hurricane by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by reconnaissance
aircraft was 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer bands associated with Humberto are expected to
produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in the central
Bahamas, with isolated storm total rainfall amounts of 6 inches.

Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning on
Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Humberto
this morning found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 88 kt in the
southeastern and northeastern quadrants, along with SFMR surface
winds of 72-73 kt in the northeastern quadrant and a minimum
pressure of 978 mb. These data support an intensity of 75 kt.

The initial motion estimate is east-northeastward or 070/06 kt.
Humberto is now solidly located north of the Bermuda-Azores ridge
axis, and a continued east-northeastward motion is expected for the
48 hours or so. Thereafter, a large deep-layer trough is forecast to
dig southward out of Atlantic Canada and the Canadian Maritimes to
the west of Humberto, forcing the hurricane to gradually lift out
to the northeast. The exact timing that the trough begins to affect
Humberto's motion will be critical in determining how close the
hurricane will come to Bermuda. The latest model guidance is in
better agreement and more tightly packed than previous runs,
suggesting that the poleward turn will occur at least 100 n mi west
of the island. By days 4 and 5, however, the model guidance becomes
strongly divergent with a large spread of about 1000 n mi on day 5,
resulting in lower-than-normal confidence in the track forecast on
those days. The new NHC track foreast was nudged only slightly
southward through 48 hours, and lies close to a blend of the
consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Humberto has been strengthening at a rate of 20 kt per 24 hours
since this time yesterday, and that trend is expected to continue
for the next day or so given the warm water beneath the hurricane
and a continued favorable upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane
is expected to peak as a major hurricane in 36-48 hours when the
cyclone will be located over SSTs of about 29 deg C and moving into
the right-rear quadrant of a strong upper-level jet maximum.
Thereafter, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to
gradually diminish convection around the center despite the
impressive baroclinic/dynamically driven pressure falls, which will
mainly act to spread out the surface wind field rather than
intensify the cyclone. Humberto is forecast to interact with an
approaching cold front on day 5, resulting in extratropical
transition over the colder Atlantic waters north of the Gulf Stream.
The official intensity forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory and now shows Humberto reaching major hurricane status,
similar to the HCCA, FSSE, and HWRF models. Since Humberto's wind
field is expected to expand significantly by day 2, a Tropical
Storm Watch for Bermuda will likely be required on the 500 pm EDT
advisory.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 29.9N 76.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 30.1N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 30.4N 74.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 30.7N 72.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 31.3N 70.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 33.7N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 37.9N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 40.8N 56.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HUMBERTO STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 75.9W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Humberto was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 30.2 North, longitude 75.9 West. Humberto is moving toward
the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion with a
gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is
expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next 48 hours, and Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane
by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning late Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Tuesday night.

Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern
coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North
Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Humberto this
afternoon found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt in the
western quadrant, along with SFMR surface winds of 71-72 kt, which
is an increase in the winds in this part of storm since the earlier
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight. The NOAA aircraft also
measured a central pressure of 972 mb, down 4 mb from the previous
flight. A combination of subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates of 90 kt and the aircraft data support an
initial intensity of 80 kt.

The initial motion estimate remains east-northeastward or 070/06 kt.
Humberto made a wobble to the north during the past few hours, but
has now wobbled toward the east, which is an indication that the
hurricane's inner core is continuing to consolidate and contract.
That being said, the latest model guidance is in even better
agreement with and more convergent about the previous forecast
track. Thus no significant changed were required through 72 hours.
Thereafter, the models are also now in better agreement that
Humberto will not slow down as much as previously expected, and the
hurricane is forecast to gradually lift out and accelerate to the
northeast on days 4 and 5 when Humberto is well to the northeast of
Bermuda. No significant track changes were made to the previous
advisory track through 48 hours, with the track having been nudged
southward slightly on days 3-5 in agreement with the consensus
models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Humberto has continued to strengthen at a rate of 20 kt per 24
hours, and I see no physical reasons why this trend should not
continue for another 24-36 hours. By 48 hours and beyond, the
hurricane will be entering the right-rear quadrant of a strong
upper-level jet maximum that could briefly impart some additional
baroclinic forcing on the cyclone, helping it to maintain its
intensity or at least slow down the weakening process. By day 3 and
beyond, however, the wind shear becomes prohibitively hostile at
more than 50 kt, which should cause the central deep convection to
erode, resulting in significant weakening. On day 5, extratropical
transition over the colder north Atlantic waters is forecast to
begin as Humberto interacts and possibly merges with a strong cold
front.

Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by late Tuesday, and
affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United
States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are
expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening
rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office and
the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 30.2N 75.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 30.4N 74.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 30.8N 73.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 31.2N 71.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 32.0N 68.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 36.0N 61.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 40.1N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 41.7N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Humberto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Humberto is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday
night or Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Bermuda by late
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Tuesday night.

Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern
coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North
Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Humberto continues to have an impressive overall appearance on
satellite imagery, although the eye is a bit ragged looking.
Earlier radar images from the NOAA P-3 aircraft showed that the
eyewall was somewhat fragmented. A last-minute observation of
700-mb flight-level winds of 86 kt from the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters, outbound to the west of the eye, is roughly consistent with
a current intensity estimate of 80 kt. Humberto should continue to
traverse warm waters for the next couple of days, and much of the
numerical guidance shows intensification in the short term.
Therefore the official forecast, like the previous one, continues to
call for the system to become a major hurricane within the next
day or so. This is similar to the intensity model consensus. By 48
hours, the shear should become very strong and a weakening trend
will likely be underway. By day 5, if not sooner, the ECMWF global
model shows the system embedded within a frontal zone so Humberto
is forecast to be extratropical at that time.

The eye has been wobbling over the past few hours, but a smoothed
estimate of the motion is just north of east or 075/7 kt. Humberto
should continue to move along the northern side of a subtropical
ridge with a gradual increase in forward speed for the next couple
of days. After that, the hurricane should turn northeastward and
north-northeastward with some additional acceleration in response
to a strong mid-tropospheric trough near Atlantic Canada. Around
the end of the forecast period, the global models differ
significantly as to how far north into the Atlantic Humberto will
move. The official forecast leans toward the ECMWF and corrected
consensus, HCCA, guidance.

It is still too early to give a good estimate as to how close the
core of the hurricane will come to Bermuda. Interests should not
focus on the exact forecast track; only a slight deviation to the
right could bring the center near or over the island.

Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by late Tuesday, and
affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United
States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are
expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening
rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office and
the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 30.3N 75.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 30.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 31.1N 72.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 31.6N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 32.8N 66.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 37.1N 60.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 40.5N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 43.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...LARGE HUMBERTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...
...ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED TO REACH THE
HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 74.3W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the large and ragged eye of Hurricane
Humberto was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 74.3 West.
Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).
This general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is
expected through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Humberto is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours and Humberto is expected to become a major hurricane
by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Bermuda by late
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday.

Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern
coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North
Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

The cloud pattern continues to be rather impressive, but the eye
is ragged looking and less defined than a few hours ago. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB have not changed significantly and
support an initial intensity of 80 kt. Another reconnaissance plane
will check the hurricane's structure in the morning.

Humberto is expected to continue to moving over warm waters for
the next few days, and intensity guidance as well as global models
strengthen the hurricane a little more. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for the system to become a major hurricane in about
24 to 36 hours. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to
be hostile, resulting in weakening. By day 5, if not sooner, the
cyclone should become embedded within a frontal zone and begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics at that time.

Satellite fixes indicate that the initial motion continues toward
the east-northeast or 075 degrees at 7 kt. Humberto is well embedded
within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this general motion with
a turn to the northeast and an increase in forward speed is forecast
for the next 5 days. Track models are in good agreement with this
solution, and the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance
envelope. It is also very similar to the previous official
forecast.

It is still too early to give a good estimate as to how close the
core of the hurricane will come to Bermuda. Interests should not
focus on the exact forecast track; only a slight deviation to the
right could bring the center near or over the island.

Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by Wednesday and
will be affecting portions of the northwestern Bahamas and
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local
weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service for additional
information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 30.6N 74.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 31.6N 70.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 32.5N 68.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 38.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 42.0N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 44.0N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...HUMBERTO'S EYE GETTING BETTER DEFINED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
CLOSER TO BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 72.9W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Humberto was located by satellite near latitude 30.8 North,
longitude 72.9 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast
near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual
increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass
just to the north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours,
and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or
Wednesday morning.

Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected over Bermuda by
Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Thursday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible over Bermuda Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated
Humberto earlier this morning found 700-mb flight-level winds of 96
kt and 82-kt surface winds on a dropsonde in the southwestern
quadrant, and 81-kt SFMR surface winds in the northwestern quadrant.
More importantly, the wind data indicate that Humberto's wind field
has expanded significantly and is becoming asymmetric with the
largest wind radii now located in the southern semicircle. The
aircraft also measured a central pressure of 961 mb, down 18 mb
since this time yesterday. The central pressure typically
corresponds to an intensity of around 100 kt, but the expansion of
the wind field has resulted in little increase in the eyewall wind
field for now. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been
increased to 85 kt.

Humberto has maintained an east-northeastward motion of 075/07 kt.
The hurricane is forecast to remain embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies though the forecast period. A deep-layer trough is
forecast to dig southward to the west of Humberto in the 24-48 hour
period, causing the hurricane to gradually gain latitude and pass
just to the northwest of Bermuda in around 36 hours. The models are
in excellent agreement on this developing track scenario and are
tightly clustered around the previous advisory track. However, the
recent expansion of the wind field and the expected additional
increase in the wind on the southeast side of Humberto's circulation
will result in the island being in near-hurricane-force conditions.
By 72 hours and beyond, Humberto will accelerate northeastward
over the cold waters of the north Atlantic and interact with a
strong frontal system, resulting in the transition into a large
extratropical low. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track through 48 hours, and then is a little
faster in the 72-120 hour period, close to a blend of the various
consensus models.

Due to the expansion of Humberto's wind field and large 35-40-n mi
wide eye, only modest strengthening is expected during the next 36
hours or so. Although not explicitly shown, Humberto could still
become a major hurricane between 24-36 hours when the cyclone will
be located over the warmest water of about 29C. Thereafter,
gradual wakening is forecast due to cooler waters and strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 40 kt. However, the
typical rate of weakening due to such hostile shear conditions will
be tempered owing to the increasing baroclinic forcing in the
right-rear entrance region of a polar jet maximum. The new intensity
forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory, and follows a
blend of the consensus models HCCA and FSSE.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. Residents there should follow advice
given by local officials.

2. Large swells will increase along the coast of Bermuda by
Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially along south-facing
beaches, could cause coastal flooding Wednesday night and Thursday.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 30.7N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 31.1N 72.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 31.8N 69.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 33.1N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 35.3N 62.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 39.6N 58.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 43.0N 52.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z 44.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE LARGE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER
TO BERMUDA...
...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 72.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 72.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion through
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to
pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or
on Wednesday.

Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and wave setup could raise water levels by
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern
coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Humberto's satellite appearance has improved somewhat since the
previous advisory, with the eye clearing out and becoming more
distinct. This has resulted in satellite subjective intensity
estimates increasing to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, with
objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS increasing to T5.9/112 kt.
However, during the past 36 h or so, the satellite estimates have
been running higher than the actual surface winds by about 10-15
percent. A 1425Z ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 72 kt
in the southeastern eyewall, which is significant given that the
scatterometer is well undersampling the actual peak winds due to the
25-km footprint of the instrument. The intensity has been increased
to 90 kt based on the clearing and warming of the eye and allowing
for some overestimation by the satellite agencies. The scatterometer
wind data also showed that Humberto's wind field has expanded more
since the earlier recon wind data, thus some additional adjustments
were made to all of the wind radii in this advisory.

Humberto continues to move east-northeastward or 075/10 kt. The
large hurricane remains on track, and the latest NHC model guidance
remains tightly packed around the previous advisory track. Thus, no
significant changes were made to the previous forecast track through
48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, however, the models are now in
better agreement on Humberto accelerating and moving faster toward
the northeast through 96 hours as an extratropical cyclone, followed
by a turn toward the east-northeast on day 5. The official forecast
track is based on a blend of the consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and
FSSE, and shows the center of Humberto passing just to the northwest
and north of Bermuda between 24-36 hours or late Wednesday night.

The latest SHIPS intensity guidance shows near 30 kt of deep-layer
vertical shear allegedly affecting Humberto, which obviously is a
significant overestimate based on the presence of a well-defined eye
and smooth CDO feature in visible satellite imagery. Given the
likely overestimation of the shear values, Humberto is expected to
strengthen to major hurricane status in the next 24 h. Thereafter,
Humberto is forecast to steadily weaken due to cold upwelling as the
hurricane moves over cooler waters, and into an environment
consisting of very strong shear exceeding 40-50 kt and more stable,
drier air. However, the usual rate of weakening due to the strong
shear conditions is expected to be tempered by the increasing
baroclinic forcing in the right-rear entrance region of a strong
jetstream wind maximum. The NHC intensity closely follows a blend of
the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Wednesday night and
Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected by
Wednesday afternoon. Residents there should follow advice given by
local officials.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding Wednesday night and Thursday along the southern coast of
Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 31.0N 72.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 31.5N 70.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 32.6N 67.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 37.4N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 41.5N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 43.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1800Z 46.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...HUMBERTO'S EYE CROSSING A NOAA BUOY...
...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 69.6W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located
by satellite near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 69.6 West. Humberto
has increased its forward speed and is moving toward the east-
northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion with an
additional increase in forward speed is expected through early
Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion
through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto is
expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
hurricane through early Thursday. A steady weakening trend should
begin later on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A NOAA buoy reported a wind gust to 89 mph (144 km/h) and
a minimum pressure of 961 mb (28.38 inches) as the eye of Humberto
was approaching.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda tonight
and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to
reach tropical-storm strength later this afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila




Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Humberto's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding with
a large ragged eye and surrounded by deep convection. The eye of the
hurricane is very near NOAA Buoy 41048 and most likely will passing
over it by the time this advisory is being released. The pressure
from the buoy has been dropping fast and is now at 961 mb and the
sustained winds have reached 58 kt with gusts to 78 kt. Based on
satellite appearance and continuity, the initial intensity is kept
at 100 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft will check the cyclone
in a few hours.

Some fluctuations in strength due to a potential eyewall replacement
are possible during the next 12 to 24 hours or so. After that time
very strong southwesterly wind shear should impact the hurricane
resulting in weakening. In 72 hours or earlier, the global models
show the system merging with a frontal zone, so the NHC forecast
calls for extratropical transition by that time. The official
intensity forecast follows the corrected consensus HCCA and is not
very different from the previous one.

Humberto is accelerating, and satellite fixes yield an initial
motion toward the east-northeast or 065 degrees at 14 kt. Humberto
is located at the base of a strong mid-to upper-level trough, and
the hurricane will likely interact with this amplifying trough. This
should force Humberto to turn toward the northeast and north-
northeast at a faster forward speed in 24-36 hours. Later in the
forecast period, the track guidance indicates that Humberto will
turn back toward the east-northeast while becoming embedded within
the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is very similar
to the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight and Thursday
morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected to begin later
today. Residents there should follow advice given by local
officials.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 31.7N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 32.7N 67.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 34.8N 63.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 37.5N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 40.0N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 43.0N 53.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0600Z 45.5N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0600Z 52.1N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila