ATL: ex-INVEST 96L - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Some of the Euro ensembles try to develop this in the western Caribbean on day 6 looking at the 16 day models thread

[Hurricaneman]

Might have to watch this in the western Caribbean but some Euro ensembles develop this and a few GFS ensembles so I’m giving it maybe a 5% chance of developing as of now

[xironman]

Big blow up of convection today may shock it back to life. 850 vorticity seems to be on the southern end.

[northjaxpro]

Big blow up of convection today may shock it back to life. 850 vorticity seems to be on the southern end.

It is looking quite good that convective blowup this morning. This just may be the spark to get this area cranking, and one we will really have to monitoring very closely here in the Caribbean, for the obvious reasons I touched on earlier on this thread.

[ronjon]

Big blow up of convection today may shock it back to life. 850 vorticity seems to be on the southern end.

It is looking quite good that convective blowup this morning. This just may be thecdpark to get this area cranking, anf one we will really have to monitoring very closely here in the Caribbean, for the obvious reasons I touched on earlier on this thread.

Yeah have my eye on here on the west coast of FL....ICON is the only model that develops it however. Tropical activity has rreally exploded since Dorian in the Atlantic Basin - has me worried about the western caribbean in October.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_14km_visir2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=24

[NDG]

Low level jet is almost non existent right now across the central Caribbean and it appears a broad circulation is developing just SW of the deep convection this morning, time to keep an eye on.

[Aric Dunn]

Low level jet is almost non existent right now across the central Caribbean and it appears a broad circulation is developing just SW of the deep convection this morning, time to keep an eye on.

https://i.imgur.com/uuVFK0H.gif

Yeah there is something in there..

out to the west is another axis.. very strange setup right now.

looks like its going to stall for awhile. steering has collapsed unless it deepens.

[boca]

What are the steering currents on this area and is it a threat to Florida.

[GCANE]

Extreme convection firing on a weak shear axis.
Might create a surface reflection if it doesn't wash out soon.
Watching closely.

[NDG]

Low level jet is almost non existent right now across the central Caribbean and it appears a broad circulation is developing just SW of the deep convection this morning, time to keep an eye on.

https://i.imgur.com/uuVFK0H.gif

Yeah there is something in there..

out to the west is another axis.. very strange setup right now.

looks like its going to stall for awhile. steering has collapsed unless it deepens.

Yeah, I saw the other axis with a weak vortex but it appears to be rotating around to the SW.

Edit: noticed that area MSLPs are 2-3 lower than 24 hrs ago, so definitely something is trying to get going here.

[NDG]

What are the steering currents on this area and is it a threat to Florida.

At this time I don't see a threat to FL, it could gain some latitude over the next few days but forecasted ridging over the southern US this weekend may keep it moving west across the GOM. If anything develops further.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ndgmetchef/status/1174326042053500928

[LarryWx]

I think shear is pretty high here. So, if that’s right, it would have to overcome quite a bit of shear and may only develop slowly, if at all. Regardless, it is well worth monitoring as it is in a dangerous location with regard to the CONUS among other areas.

[tropicwatch]

I think shear is pretty high here. So, if that’s right, it would have to overcome quite a bit of shear and may only develop slowly, if at all. Regardless, it is well worth monitoring as it is in a dangerous location with regard to the CONUS among other areas.

Actually the shear is not too bad in that area this morning.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[PTrackerLA]

Definitely looks like something to keep an eye on given the satellite appearance today:

[HurricaneAndre2008]

When the models liked 96L, what was it doing in the Caribbean,

[toad strangler]

Interesting sat presentation. Looks well ventilated. BUT looks can be very deceiving as we all know.

[tropicwatch]

Probably will get a lemon in the next two.

[boca]

Will it be 96L or 98L?

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Will it be 96L or 98L?

It would be reclassified as 96L.