ATL: ex-INVEST 96L - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

96L INVEST 1909133 1200 12.0Nh 45.0W ATL 15 0

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 96, 2019091312, , BEST, 0, 135N, 388W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021, SPAWNINVEST, al742019 to al962019,

[SFLcane]

[plasticup]

Major disagreements about route, but looks a consensus is forming around this thing developing before the windward islands

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This one could be significant. Looking forward to seeing the intensity models.

[plasticup]

Everyone from Bermuda to GOM should be watching this.

[jlauderdal]

Everyone from Bermuda to GOM should be watching this.

Add nova scotia to your cone

[GeneratorPower]

Major disagreements about route, but looks a consensus is forming around this thing developing before the windward islands

Just seeing deep system goes north, medium and shallow systems go east. Sounds normal to me for this type of setup. That’s what TABS, TABM and TABD means...shallow medium deep.

[sma10]

Major disagreements about route, but looks a consensus is forming around this thing developing before the windward islands

Just seeing deep system goes north, medium and shallow systems go east. Sounds normal to me for this type of setup. That’s what TABS, TABM and TABD means...shallow medium deep.

The thinking is that if this system deepens early, it will get pulled north significantly by future Humberto. Thus far the model consensus is either no development or little development. This, as always, will come down to timing. If this waits to develop until the Central Caribbean, it's possible that it will bypass Humberto's weakness

[sma10]

As I mentioned on the model thread, this one could potentially end up walking a tight rope. Early deepening will almost certainly recurve due to PTC 9. But a fast westward moving screamer that stays low and rather undeveloped, could actually be BAD news long term.

[TheStormExpert]

The NAO is about to go negative within the next several days so I think it'll be a challenge for 96L/future Imelda to get too far west.

[Kazmit]

The NAO is about to go negative within the next several days so I think it'll be a challenge for 96L/future Imelda to get too far west.

I’d place my bets on this recurving. Climo favors it too.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS is the 3rd of the last 4 that has an easy recurve well east of the CONUS. If anything, chances for this avoiding the CONUS and not even coming that close have increased recently imo. But it is still too early to make a definitive call. The main risk to the CONUS is, ironically, if this stays weak in the MDR.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12Z GFS is the 3rd of the last 4 that has an easy recurve well east of the CONUS. If anything, chances for this avoiding the CONUS and not even coming that close have increased recently imo. But it is still too early to make a definitive call. The main risk to the CONUS is, ironically, if this stays weak in the MDR.

Still could be a threat to Bermuda.

[SFLcane]

The 12Z GFS is the 3rd of the last 4 that has an easy recurve well east of the CONUS. If anything, chances for this avoiding the CONUS and not even coming that close have increased recently imo. But it is still too early to make a definitive call. The main risk to the CONUS is, ironically, if this stays weak in the MDR.

Sure 95L is cleaning house essentially keeping any ridge weak across the tropical atl so I’d be surprised if anything makes it past 65-70w before recurving.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands
and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large but disorganized area
of cloudiness and showers. Conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development in a couple days, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward across the tropical Atlantic and approaches the eastern
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[HurricaneRyan]

If this gets named Imelda, I want a recurve. We don't need yet another dangerous I storm.

[Blown Away]

Seems this area will stay weak into the Caribbean... Pattern seems clear this year, as soon as a system strengthens/deepens it goes poleward...

[jlauderdal]

euro 12z throwing up mutiple lows...will have to let it settle down but the takeaway is humberto creating a huge weakness keeping the SE protected, lets see if that continues

[plasticup]

If this gets named Imelda, I want a recurve. We don't need yet another dangerous I storm.

The models that recurve it bring it over Bermuda at 950mb. That’s dangerous enough for me, thanks.