ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:57 pm

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2019, DB, O, 2019091118, 9999999999, , 022, , , 8, METWATCH, , AL972019

AL, 97, 2019091518, , BEST, 0, 87N, 405W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022, SPAWNINVEST, al752019 to al972019,

Thread at talking tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120562

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#2 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:59 pm

Looks fishy at the moment
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#3 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:04 pm

Invest 97L
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 15, 2019:

Location: 8.7°N 40.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#4 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks fishy at the moment


Regarding the pic of the trough you posted on the other thread, that is the front that the gfs has been showing for days dropping temps down into the 70’s for highs next weekend or us in south LA. That looks more interesting than the tropics for the next week or two.
Last edited by CYCLONE MIKE on Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:51 pm

The models move it north from now but is still moving west.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#6 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:18 pm

:uarrow:
Models backing off on early development so doesn’t surprise me a weaker system goes more west moved by the trades...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:10 pm

NOAA plane is in Barbados (abajan) waiting for the moment they get the order to fly to 97L when it gets closer to the islands.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:27 pm

It may be a fish but may get a lot of ACE units to help the North Atlantic keep in the above average status and the ACE is more important than the number of named storms. (Quality vs Quantity)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#9 Postby Buck » Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:19 pm

Definitely looks like a decently strong mid level circulation already.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:50 pm

A small low pressure system is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the east-central tropical
Atlantic. Slow development is possible during the next day or
two, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development by the middle of the week, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:15 pm

AL, 97, 2019091600, , BEST, 0, 92N, 409W, 25, 1009, L


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:21 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#13 Postby StruThiO » Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:50 am

Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight in association
with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next two to three days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:57 am

Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association
with a small low pressure system located over the central tropical
Atlantic. Satellite data also indicate that the low has become
better defined, and environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next
couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:52 am

12z Best Track:

Location: 11.3°N 40.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#16 Postby msbee » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:03 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#17 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:28 am

It's really starting to fire convection this morning, but its low-level circulation seems to be heading north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#18 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:11 am

Looks pathetic in both satellite imagery & TPW loop. Development chances appear to be based on model predictions. System in Gulf may have a better shot at development than 97L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#19 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:20 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks pathetic in both satellite imagery & TPW loop. Development chances appear to be based on model predictions. System in Gulf may have a better shot at development than 97L.



Are you going to take that, 97L? :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#20 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks pathetic in both satellite imagery & TPW loop. Development chances appear to be based on model predictions. System in Gulf may have a better shot at development than 97L.


Looks to me like a pretty robust circulation .
Think this will likely be at least a minimal T.S.
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