ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#21 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:58 pm

A well-defined small low pressure system located about 1200 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression
during the next day or so while the system moves slowly
northwestward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#22 Postby Abdullah » Mon Sep 16, 2019 4:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks pathetic in both satellite imagery & TPW loop. Development chances appear to be based on model predictions. System in Gulf may have a better shot at development than 97L.



cycloneye wrote:
A well-defined small low pressure system located about 1200 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression
during the next day or so while the system moves slowly
northwestward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


This is why you don't make fun of these systems...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#23 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:51 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#24 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:53 pm

TCFA issued. Umm,this caught my eye.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:16 pm

Fairly defined under convection.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#26 Postby drezee » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:22 pm

I feel it just needs sustained convection for classification
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#27 Postby StruThiO » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:33 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#28 Postby CaribJam » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:59 pm

What direction is 97L presently moving? W, WNW or NW. This is with reference to the TCFA issued above.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#29 Postby CaribJam » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:02 pm

Just saw the answer. It said moving westward.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#30 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:07 pm

maybe by thur we send hurr hunter one going out wed is jetsteam plane not hunter
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#31 Postby StormTracker » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:14 pm

00z GFS keeps 97L weak and more WNW vs. NW. We'll see what King Euro has to say in a few hours...ST
Last edited by StormTracker on Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#32 Postby StormTracker » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:42 pm

Starting emulate the same Dorian/Humberto pattern into 200+ hours of the 00z run. GFS trending further west for now...ST
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#33 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:04 am

This looks like a Tropical Depression this morning if not already TS strength.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#34 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:33 am

Based on visibles, I would go TS now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#35 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:45 am

A small low pressure system is located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has
increased and become a little better organized this morning, and
conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a
tropical depression during the next day or so while the system moves
slowly northwestward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#36 Postby Dylan » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:49 am

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1173926313352187904


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#37 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:00 am

I'm a bit surprised this didn't get at least designated a TD this morning with ASCAT showing a closed circulation and this deep burst of sustained convection over night!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#38 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:06 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks pathetic in both satellite imagery & TPW loop. Development chances appear to be based on model predictions. System in Gulf may have a better shot at development than 97L.

Perhaps those pesky model predictions may have been right after all :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#39 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:21 am

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1173923643740565505


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#40 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:30 am

What's the URL of the site where renumbers of tropical disturbances are posted again? I should've bookmarked it.
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