LarryWx wrote:From 1960 through 2018, there were 33 T.S.+'s that were first declared a T.D.+ east of 55W and south of 20N within the interval of 9/15-9/25.
Here are the formation dates:
9/19/1963, 9/16/1965, 9/21/1966**, 9/20/1969, 9/21/1971, 9/18/1975, 9/22/1975, 9/21/1981, 9/15/1984, 9/16/1985**, 9/19/1988, 9/16/1989, 9/21/1990, 9/21/1994, 9/24/1996, 9/15/1998**, 9/19/1998, 9/21/1998, 9/21/2000, 9/25/2000, 9/21/2002**, 9/25/2003, 9/16/2004, 9/19/2004, 9/17/2005, 9/25/2007, 9/20/2010, 9/20/2011, 9/24/2011, 9/18/2015, 9/19/2016, 9/16/2017, and 9/22/2018
** = the 4 that later hit the CONUS
So, 4 of these 33 later hit the CONUS or 12% of them. The rest either missed or dissipated in the open ocean. A decent number actually dissipated.
The 4 that hit:
1. Inez (1966): 9/21 genesis ~10N, 35W; hit FL Keys
2. Gloria (1985): 9/16 genesis ~13N, 24W; hit NC OB, NE US
3. Georges (1998): 9/15 genesis ~10N, 25W; hit FL Keys, MS/AL/FL Panhandle
4. Lili (2002): 9/21 genesis ~10N, 45W; hit LA
Will TD #10 be the 5th since 1960 and add to the 12% that hit? I still highly doubt it and this feeling is supported by the 12Z ICON, UKMET, GFS, Legacy, and CMC. But I'll obviously continue to watch since this is far from a done deal being this far out.
Statistically speaking, I guess there are two ways to look at this Larry. Climatology and current model trends definitely support a harmless recurve. Statistically though, 1 out of every 8 of these buggers hit the CONUS, but the last 12 in a row haven't. We're overdue.
