ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

No doubt in my mind this is at least a TD. It may even be a TS based on satellite presentation this morning.

[chaser1]

maybe by thur we send hurr hunter one going out wed is jetsteam plane not hunter

Interesting. I'm not sure I recall when NHC has sent out their "high flier" out ahead and before sending out standard NOAA or AF recon for any storm. Maybe because there's just enough uncertainty about whatever ridging might still exist between Humberto to the north and the large swath of Atlantic between the two features?

[AutoPenalti]

TCFA issued. Umm,this caught my eye.

https://i.imgur.com/d0s0YcG.jpg

Is that TCFA's version of a NHC cone?

[cycloneye]

This is a TD.

TXNT23 KNES 171213
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 17/1150Z

C. 12.3N

D. 44.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON 0.45 CURVED BANDING. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT
IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEARCUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[Florida1118]

Special Message from NHC Issued 17 Sep 2019 14:11 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten located well east of the Lesser Antilles at 11 AM EDT.

[msbee]

question is will it go north of me or not? #watching

[AnnularCane]

What happened to the floater on Tropical Tidbits?

[BlowHard]

Both upper level and lower level wind steering currents are looking to push this storm north at the top of the antilles. The question might be whehter or not it gets strong enough to just go northwest. My guess is no, no it will not.

[wx98]

NHC is busy...three new storms at once

[wxman57]

I have the track farther south than the NHC, closer but still north of the NE Caribbean islands. I think their intensity forecast is too aggressive. I'd stay closer to dynamic guidance than statistical with a storm at the leading edge of a SAL outbreak. Could become a hurricane as it turns northward east of the Bahamas, but I don't see it as a hurricane as it passes the NE Caribbean Fri/Sat.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1173983891784380416

[ouragans]

What happened to the floater on Tropical Tidbits?

Delays with images from GOES, apparently

[Nimbus]

There are some eastward moving low level clouds on the south side of TD 10 but I wasn't sure if there weren't still some outflow boundaries that might signal slower development?

[StruThiO]

[chris_fit]

When is recon due to arrive into this thing?

[LarryWx]

From 1960 through 2018, there were 33 T.S.+'s that were first declared a T.D.+ east of 55W and south of 20N within the interval of 9/15-9/25.

Here are the formation dates:
9/19/1963, 9/16/1965, 9/21/1966**, 9/20/1969, 9/21/1971, 9/18/1975, 9/22/1975, 9/21/1981, 9/15/1984, 9/16/1985**, 9/19/1988, 9/16/1989, 9/21/1990, 9/21/1994, 9/24/1996, 9/15/1998**, 9/19/1998, 9/21/1998, 9/21/2000, 9/25/2000, 9/21/2002**, 9/25/2003, 9/16/2004, 9/19/2004, 9/17/2005, 9/25/2007, 9/20/2010, 9/20/2011, 9/24/2011, 9/18/2015, 9/19/2016, 9/16/2017, and 9/22/2018

** = the 4 that later hit the CONUS

So, 4 of these 33 later hit the CONUS or 12% of them. The rest either missed or dissipated in the open ocean. A decent number actually dissipated.

The 4 that hit:
1. Inez (1966): 9/21 genesis ~10N, 35W; hit FL Keys
2. Gloria (1985): 9/16 genesis ~13N, 24W; hit NC OB, NE US
3. Georges (1998): 9/15 genesis ~10N, 25W; hit FL Keys, MS/AL/FL Panhandle
4. Lili (2002): 9/21 genesis ~10N, 45W; hit LA

Will TD #10 be the 5th since 1960 and add to the 12% that hit? I still highly doubt it and this feeling is supported by the 12Z ICON, UKMET, GFS, Legacy, and CMC. But I'll obviously continue to watch since this is far from a done deal being this far out.

[otowntiger]

I have the track farther south than the NHC, closer but still north of the NE Caribbean islands. I think their intensity forecast is too aggressive. I'd stay closer to dynamic guidance than statistical with a storm at the leading edge of a SAL outbreak. Could become a hurricane as it turns northward east of the Bahamas, but I don't see it as a hurricane as it passes the NE Caribbean Fri/Sat.

So I guess indications are pretty clear about a north turn prior to the Bahamas, even this far out?

[Nuno]

I have the track farther south than the NHC, closer but still north of the NE Caribbean islands. I think their intensity forecast is too aggressive. I'd stay closer to dynamic guidance than statistical with a storm at the leading edge of a SAL outbreak. Could become a hurricane as it turns northward east of the Bahamas, but I don't see it as a hurricane as it passes the NE Caribbean Fri/Sat.

So I guess indications are pretty clear about a north turn prior to the Bahamas, even this far out?

It's a pretty high likelihood I imagine. The pattern all month has been troughs consistently allowing for weaknesses east of Florida to allow re-curvature. With the weakness left by Humberto, it may follow OTS. Early days though.

[chris_fit]

I have the track farther south than the NHC, closer but still north of the NE Caribbean islands. I think their intensity forecast is too aggressive. I'd stay closer to dynamic guidance than statistical with a storm at the leading edge of a SAL outbreak. Could become a hurricane as it turns northward east of the Bahamas, but I don't see it as a hurricane as it passes the NE Caribbean Fri/Sat.

So I guess indications are pretty clear about a north turn prior to the Bahamas, even this far out?

Yes - But they said the same about Florence and Irma

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I wonder which will get "Imelda" first, this system or 11L.