ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#501 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:09 am

Satellite loops indicate Jerry may be moving NW or even WNW on the NE side of an upper low vs the NNW prog for at least the time being. If so, he's likely moving west of the NHC track and just about all models. If this continues much longer, he MAY get into a position where the risk of getting left behind increases. If so, what might this mean for both Jerry and Karen??
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#502 Postby aperson » Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:14 am

the further west jerry gets the more it gets utterly decapitated by shear along that dry line. at this rate I think jerry may dissipate early and leave a moist, low shear environment for karen.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#503 Postby Stormi » Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:20 am

Feed for future feeder-bands 8-)
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#504 Postby Nuno » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:13 am

Might not be a whole lot left for Karen to interact with.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#505 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:12 am

Jerry looks like an extra tropical system this morning, at least subtropical.

Image
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#506 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:31 am

NDG,you nailed the Subtropical thing.

TXNT23 KNES 241158
TCSNTL

A. 10L (JERRY)

B. 24/1146Z

C. 30.6N

D. 69.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. SUBTROPICAL

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS TAKEN ON SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH AN
EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER AND BANDS OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED, BUT CONSISTS OF
MULITPLE VORTICES ROTATING WITHIN A LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. THIS WILL
BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS SATELLITE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME PURELY TROPICAL IN NATURE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#507 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:55 am

Looks to be drifting south? Am I seeing that right?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#508 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:57 am

chris_fit wrote:Looks to be drifting south? Am I seeing that right?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis


I think his LLC is pretty much quasi-stationary.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#509 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:07 am

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#510 Postby Jr0d » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:19 am

I was not expecting Jerry to start moving NE until later today, it appears he may be starting to wobble that way with the latest visible satellite.

Now if Jerry is still around the same area around at midnight then that will through a monkey wrench into what is already becoming a complex forecasting situation.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#511 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:11 pm

Looks like it's completely subtropical or post-tropical right now
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#512 Postby Kazmit » Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:49 pm

Definitely feels tropical here in Bermuda. Sustained winds are near 30mph and it's very humid.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#513 Postby wx98 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:58 pm

...JERRY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...
5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24
Location: 31.1°N 69.0°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#514 Postby TallyTracker » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:53 pm

If Jerry doesn’t redevelop convection near the center soon, I’d be considering designating the system either post-tropical or a remnant low.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#515 Postby wx98 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:02 pm

TallyTracker wrote:If Jerry doesn’t redevelop convection near the center soon, I’d be considering designating the system either post-tropical or a remnant low.

NHC admitted this morning that it transitioned to subtropical, so I would think they’ll make that change post-season. But yes, trop or sub-trop, it’s looking more post-trop now...
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#516 Postby Highteeld » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:55 pm

wx98 wrote:
TallyTracker wrote:If Jerry doesn’t redevelop convection near the center soon, I’d be considering designating the system either post-tropical or a remnant low.

NHC admitted this morning that it transitioned to subtropical, so I would think they’ll make that change post-season. But yes, trop or sub-trop, it’s looking more post-trop now...

Now they are claiming it's neither LOL

Jerry no longer looks like either a tropical or a subtropical
cyclone, since it lacks deep convection within a couple of hundred
miles of the center.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#517 Postby wx98 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:44 pm

Recon suggests this isn’t even at TS strength anymore. The data could maybe make a case for 35 kt, but it really should be at least downgraded to a depression at this point. Better yet, post-tropical remnant low...
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#518 Postby wx98 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:46 pm

They went with 40 kts since the plane hasn’t sampled the whole system, but I’d say that’s a little high

...AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE WEAKER...
11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24
Location: 31.4°N 68.7°W
Moving: NNE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#519 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:22 am

Not a trace of convection. Unless D-max pulls off something wild, probably only got an advisory or two to go. That happened a lot quicker than I thought.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#520 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:39 am

He is gone

...JERRY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25
Location: 31.8°N 67.9°W
Moving: NE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
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