ATL: JERRY - Models

[sma10]

Navgem Fujiwhara



https://i.imgur.com/G6CN5GM.mp4
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NVG/2019092018//nvg10.thk.162.go_mex.gif

Preposterous, of course. But why can't that ever actually happen? It would be fascinating

[Kazmit]

Looks like a pretty good consensus that this will pass very close to Bermuda. It's just a matter of how strong it is at that time.

[Buck]

Navgem Fujiwhara

https://i.imgur.com/G6CN5GM.mp4
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NVG/2019092018//nvg10.thk.162.go_mex.gif

Fascinating!

Also, the ECMWF seems to keep Jerry around a lot longer than I would expect it to.

I guess you can't dissect these too much, though.

[CreponChris]

12Z Guidance without the CMC (as far as I can tell) or the EPS. Early + Late...shows about 10 hits between Jerry and AL99 (what number will the disturbance furthest East near Africa be numbered if anyone knows? 98?)


The hits seem to come mostly from:
TABD - Trajectory and Beta Model, deep layer (NHC)

HMNI - Previous cycle HMON, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
Hurricane Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity

HMON - Hurricane Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model
Cycle Frequency: 6 hr (126hr), Runs on request from NHC/JTWC
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity

Horizontal Resolution: Grid Configuration, 3 nests (18-6-2 km)
Vertical Levels and Coordinate: 42, Hybrid Sigma-pressure
Convective Scheme Intensity Model Predictors: Simplified Arakawa-Schubert

12Z EPS for the Atlantic Basin. I know this is a per-storm forum thing we've got going on here but figured it wouldn't hurt. Let me know if it's a problem to post bigger-picture images like this.


~Christopher

[LarryWx]

Jerry: The Happy Hour EPS has 3 of 51 members getting left behind and 1 of these 3 later hitting the US (FL) by hour 132.

[floridasun78]

Jerry: The Happy Hour EPS has 3 of 51 members getting left behind and 1 of these 3 later hitting the US (FL) by hour 132.

nhc feel very good will go north and north east pass by Bermuda and way out their dont see staying south 30north will move out by Bermuda

[LarryWx]

Jerry: The Happy Hour EPS has 3 of 51 members getting left behind and 1 of these 3 later hitting the US (FL) by hour 132.

nhc feel very good will go north and north east pass by Bermuda and way out their dont see staying south 30north will move out by Bermuda

I agree with that but mainly for entertainment look at what the 12Z UKMET does with Jerry: stalls him at hour 60 and then slowly moved him SSW 96-132 and then a turn WSW 132-144! Is this just its left bias playing a trick on us? I will remind folks that a very small number of ensemble members of various models have still been after moving him northward leaving Jerry behind and even then having him turn west fwiw. This is the first major operational doing anything like this that I can recall.


TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 25.5N 66.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2019 0 25.5N 66.6W 1008 39
0000UTC 23.09.2019 12 27.2N 67.7W 1000 44
1200UTC 23.09.2019 24 27.7N 68.5W 997 45
0000UTC 24.09.2019 36 28.7N 68.9W 992 49
1200UTC 24.09.2019 48 29.9N 69.9W 977 54
0000UTC 25.09.2019 60 30.3N 70.0W 983 44
1200UTC 25.09.2019 72 30.5N 70.1W 988 41
0000UTC 26.09.2019 84 30.4N 70.1W 992 35
1200UTC 26.09.2019 96 30.4N 70.6W 993 34
0000UTC 27.09.2019 108 30.2N 70.9W 994 36
1200UTC 27.09.2019 120 28.9N 71.3W 989 49
0000UTC 28.09.2019 132 28.0N 71.0W 988 55
1200UTC 28.09.2019 144 27.8N 71.5W 991 49

****Edit: It looks like both the 12Z CDN ens and EPS hit S FL with one Jerry member on 9/30. But that's only 1 of each ensemble (2-5%).

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET Jerry: hardly moves the entire 144 hours!


TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.6N 67.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2019 0 27.6N 67.8W 996 46
0000UTC 24.09.2019 12 28.9N 68.6W 993 45
1200UTC 24.09.2019 24 30.0N 69.6W 989 43
0000UTC 25.09.2019 36 30.3N 69.2W 993 33
1200UTC 25.09.2019 48 30.7N 68.5W 999 29
0000UTC 26.09.2019 60 30.7N 67.7W 1000 26
1200UTC 26.09.2019 72 30.6N 67.6W 1002 26
0000UTC 27.09.2019 84 30.4N 67.8W 1003 25
1200UTC 27.09.2019 96 29.8N 68.2W 1002 35
0000UTC 28.09.2019 108 28.1N 69.1W 996 40
1200UTC 28.09.2019 120 27.7N 68.8W 997 38
0000UTC 29.09.2019 132 28.0N 68.3W 994 44
1200UTC 29.09.2019 144 29.2N 68.0W 991 47

[Kazmit]

Hilarious. The GFS keeps this around for another 2 weeks!

[plasticup]

Jerry: The Happy Hour EPS has 3 of 51 members getting left behind and 1 of these 3 later hitting the US (FL) by hour 132.

nhc feel very good will go north and north east pass by Bermuda and way out their dont see staying south 30north will move out by Bermuda

NHC starting to show the late WSW dip that UKMET and GFS have been showing. Jerry may want an encore:

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has made this interesting as the trough doesn’t take it out

[somethingfunny]

The 0zGFS has made this interesting as the trough doesn’t take it out

Doesn't this track basically put Jerry in the exact same position as Lorenzo in 5 days?

[wx98]

The 0zGFS has made this interesting as the trough doesn’t take it out

Doesn't this track basically put Jerry in the exact same position as Lorenzo in 5 days?

I’d say he’ll end up N or NW of Lorenzo at that time. There could be some strange interactions between these 3 storms that aren’t modeled.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like a pretty good consensus that this will pass very close to Bermuda. It's just a matter of how strong it is at that time.

It never ceases to amaze me how often Bermuda is in the crosshairs of these cyclones, despite the tiny size of the island. Bermuda is looking at another potential serious impact from a tropical cyclone in just two weeks.

Jerry likely will get very close unfortunately.