ATL: JERRY - Models

[SpaceyLacey]

Any thoughts on the NAVGEM model?

[chris_fit]

I count 14/51 (27%) the 06Z EPS members leaving Jerry behind...... that's actually an uptick I believe...

[tolakram]

Any thoughts on the NAVGEM model?

This is model verification so far. The first really tall light blue bar is the NAVGEM. It's usually one of the most wrong when it comes to predicting storm location.

[SpaceyLacey]

Any thoughts on the NAVGEM model?

This is model verification so far. The first really tall light blue bar is the NAVGEM. It's usually one of the most wrong when it comes to predicting storm location.

https://i.imgur.com/aX9jT8e.png

Yeah that explains why it’s showing almost a loop around in the latest model run I just seen and every other one is out to sea. Although I think the ICON showed it almost sitting out there

[ConvergenceZone]

There’s no way this will hit the US mainland. Definite recurve for sure

Why be so definitive? How about, if the upper air pattern the models are showing is correct this should curve away from the US mainland. Nothing is set in stone though, if models can be wrong about a storm hitting Florida they can also be wrong about showing a recurve.

If I’m wrong, then I would be the first person to say I’m wrong, and vice versus. But a high pressure ridge isn’t going to magically form out of the blue, and stretch across the Atlantic and provide no escape route. Not this time of year

[LarryWx]

Though hard to believe, the 12Z GFs has a very interesting solution with Jerry looping almost all of the way back to where he is now after 288 hours!

[StruThiO]

Though hard to believe, the 12Z GFs has a very interesting solution with Jerry looping almost all of the way back to where he is now after 288 hours!

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS - lol

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS at hour 120 has more laggards that stay well to the SW (E of Bahamas) vs prior runs. It might be a good idea to make sure this isn't a trend.

[sma10]

12Z GEFS at hour 120 has more laggards that stay well to the SW (E of Bahamas) vs prior runs. It might be a good idea to make sure this isn't a trend.

Eric mentions in the 11am jerry discussion that the models have become extremely slow in the 3-5 day range. And as we all know, the very first sign of a stall/loop is the models hinting at a dramatic slow down.

I think the smart money now is still on a recurve, but a stall is at least on the table as a possibility. If it happens, let's hope it does it way out at 60W and not at 70W

[SFLcane]

Look who is here to say the day AGAIN! Still waiting for that dangerous steering pattern to move in

[nativefloridian]

Look who is here to say the day AGAIN! Still waiting for that dangerous steering pattern to move in

https://i.imgur.com/K2aijsk.png

Although that's predicted to happen 16 days from now.

[StruThiO]

Look who is here to say the day AGAIN! Still waiting for that dangerous steering pattern to move in

Please don't 384post

I won't rest easy until October is past me (currently staying in FL..)

[SFLcane]

Highly unlikely it comes back to much further west before getting turned away. Its been the story this entire season

[sma10]

Look who is here to say the day AGAIN! Still waiting for that dangerous steering pattern to move in

https://i.imgur.com/K2aijsk.png

That's the 384hr GFS. You might as well have posted a picture of a clown's face

[SpaceyLacey]

I seen the loop earlier with other models, that’s why I asked about the NAVGEM and the ICON did it as well. Pretty sure CMC had a run earlier that’s similar too.

[SFLcane]

Look who is here to say the day AGAIN! Still waiting for that dangerous steering pattern to move in

https://i.imgur.com/K2aijsk.png

That's the 384hr GFS. You might as well have posted a picture of a clown's face

This time of year though there will definitely be a trof waiting.

[sma10]

Look who is here to say the day AGAIN! Still waiting for that dangerous steering pattern to move in

https://i.imgur.com/K2aijsk.png

That's the 384hr GFS. You might as well have posted a picture of a clown's face

This time of year though there will definitely be a trof waiting.

I agree and that's why the GFS solution with a big 'ol loop way out at 30n 60w is relatively benign. But fwiw, the HWRF and HMON also stall now, but much further to the SW

[StruThiO]

This time of year though there will definitely be a trof waiting.

you are probably right, but I have seen much weirder things happen in the world of tropical weather

happy 4000th post!

[aperson]