EPAC: MARIO - Post-Tropical

[galaxy401]

Now all we have to do is get Lorenzo retired and replaced in the Atlantic with Luigi and in 2025 we can have a Nintendo party in the Western Hemisphere basins

Imagine the headlines if we get both of them both at once

Would be funny if they do. They also have Marco and Polo in the same naming list for the basins.

[Astromanía]

Wow convection firing up on this one too! those cold top clouds!

[Yellow Evan]

I have reservations, based on just average shear outlook currently that only is going to get worse, long term, and I'd be surprised if this became a hurricane, but we do have 2 nice deepening Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones tonight.

[1900hurricane]

Looks pretty good on the latest microwave pass.

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Mario has done well in fighting off northeasterly shear that
continues to impact it, with deep convection extending across the
center for much of the night. A recent scatterometer pass indicated
that tropical storm force winds now extend up to 80 n mi in the
southeast quadrant, and 60 n mi in the northeast quadrant. This pass
also indicated that the maximum winds have increased to 40 kt, and
this will be the initial advisory intensity.

Mario has turned a little to the left, and the initial motion is now
310/09 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should
continue to steer it in this general direction through Thursday
morning. By late Thursday, a trough digging into the western United
States is expected to erode the ridge, and the steering currents
will collapse. This will result in a decrease in forward speed and
eventually Mario is expected to become nearly stationary through
Friday night. By Saturday, the ridge is forecast to rebuild over
Mexico, which would result in Mario beginning a north-northwest
motion. The official forecast track is high confidence through 72
hours and in the middle of tightly clustered consensus guidance.
After 72 hours when the cyclone is expected to begin moving again,
the guidance diverges and has shifted a little to the east. The
official forecast was also shifted a little to the east, but remains
west of the consensus aids during that time frame.

The shear affecting Mario is expected to continue for the duration
of the forecast period, while tropical cyclone Lorena remains to the
northeast. Warm waters and a favorable atmospheric environment
aside from the shear should allow for gradual strengthening for the
next couple of days, and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by
Friday. By Saturday, Mario will begin to move into a drier and more
stable environment, while the shear remains. This should cause a
weakening trend to begin and continue through the end of the
forecast period. The official forecast is similar to the previous
one, and is on the higher end of the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 13.7N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 112.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.4N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 16.7N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 17.5N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 19.0N 113.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Recent microwave imagery shows that the inner core of Mario has
become better defined overnight. Both GPM and SSMI overpasses
reveal a small low- to mid-level eye feature that is fairly aligned
with the low-level center. This places the center well within the
convective mass seen in conventional satellite imagery. Based on
this recent improvement in organization, the initial intensity is
raised to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest SAB Dvorak estimate
and UW/CIMSS ADT. Mario has managed to fight off moderate
northeasterly shear so far, and with the cyclone traversing warm
SSTs during the next day or so, additional strengthening is
forecast. The new intensity forecast is above the previous advisory
in the short term and brings Mario to hurricane strength within 24
hours. After that time, the anticipated slow motion of the storm
could cause some upwelling, so little change in strength is shown in
the middle portion of the forecast period, followed by slow
weakening.

Mario is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge to
the northeast of the cyclone should continue to steer it
northwestward during the next day or so. After that time, the
track forecast becomes much more uncertain as some of the dynamical
models suggest some binary interaction between Mario and Lorena,
with Mario turning northeastward as Lorena passes to the northeast
and north of Mario. For now, the NHC forecast anticipates less
interaction between the two tropical cyclones, and the official
forecast is closest to the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean. The
medium- to long-range track forecast for Mario is much more
uncertain than normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.5N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

[FireRat]

looks like super Mario might become a hurricane afterall.

[zeehag]

gfs has been showing possible fujiwhara effect....will we be so fortunate to experience this in epac this batch of storms....

[Astromanía]

We saw that last season with Ileana and Jhon and IMO that was way more expected due to closer distance between the two, I don't think we will see that here

[galaxy401]

Mario is not looking too good now. Lorena is starting to eat it up.

[hurricanes1234]

That unfortunate moment when Mario becomes Mario's pizza.

[CrazyC83]

Lorena has thrown a Koopa shell that way it seems.

[Astromanía]

Mario is forecasted to make landfall also in Baja California Sur but just as a tropical depression and in a much less populated area so no worries about this, nice rainfall to the peninsula.

[galaxy401]

There's nothing but a naked swirl in Mario now. No convection anywhere and no signs of any flare-ups ATM. Probably a post-tropical cyclone now.

[EquusStorm]

Not sure if we are fully at D-max yet so wouldn't be shocking to see a couple tiny cells pop up just long enough to stave off post tropical designation a few more hours, BUT conditions haven't been all that unfavorable for convection all day and the system was STILL unable to maintain any convection near center. Definitely time for a final advisory if nothing happens before sunrise. Now that I'm looking though, Kiko and Lorena are both firing off some cells and Mario in the middle is still completely lifeless, so yeah... time to throw in the towel and say bye til 2025.

[TallyTracker]

It’s looking like Mario and Lorena may degenerate to remnant lows on the same advisory! That would mean they formed AND decayed at the same time! Synchronized cyclones? lol

[somethingfunny]

Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Mario earned an extra life yesterday but has just about reached its
time limit. Satellite images indicate that an earlier burst of deep
convection has dissipated, with only a couple of small disorganized
blobs left over. If there is no further convective re-development,
Mario will likely be declared a remnant low later this morning.

Caught this video game pun from Blake in the 5am package

[CrazyC83]

Koopa has taken over. Remnant low.

[DioBrando]

The advisory has a Nintendo reference loooool

'GAME OVER'

[CrazyC83]

The advisory has a Nintendo reference loooool

'GAME OVER'

At least until 2025.