EPAC: LORENA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Has any hurricane ever gone the length of the Gulf of California without making landfall until the end? That would be historic.

No.

[Yellow Evan]

Add Lorena to the long list of storms near this region that have moved farther east than expected.

[Kingarabian]

If it rides up the spine I'm thinking watches could be posted for West Arizona or SECAL.

[Astromanía]

I have a headache trying to understand what will happen with this

[Monsoonjr99]

This is an interesting development considering I live in SoCal. As the NHC discussion stated, a slight eastward deviation could send this up the Gulf of California. But with the warm SSTs and possibility of intensification, I think perhaps the GFS solution could verify with a hard right turn into Mexico due to a stronger system feeling the trough more. Then again, warm SSTs don't automatically mean intensification, especially in an environment like this with desert (dry air) surrounding the storm on both sides. Perhaps dry air infiltrating the core and keeping the strength down might lead to a scenario as CrazyC83 described of this going the entire length of the Gulf.

In the event that Lorena or its remnants effect southern California, I think a lot of the precipitation could be on the San Bernardino Mountains, but strangely coming from the east instead of the west. Palm Springs/Imperial Valley may need to watch out as well for flash flooding in such a case of this storm riding up the Gulf of California.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Astromanía]

Inminent landfall it seems! I think this is a category 2 hurricane now. A west track produced this to be now near to San Jose del Cabo and the Gulf of California, so Cabo San Lucas is now receiving most probabbly only tropical storm winds and San Jose del Cabo hurricane winds. Stay safe!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_15E_201909201955.jpg?2302507
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis_15E_201909202005.jpg?2302507

Lol sorry I meant EAST "facepalm"

[CrazyC83]

This is an interesting development considering I live in SoCal. As the NHC discussion stated, a slight eastward deviation could send this up the Gulf of California. But with the warm SSTs and possibility of intensification, I think perhaps the GFS solution could verify with a hard right turn into Mexico due to a stronger system feeling the trough more. Then again, warm SSTs don't automatically mean intensification, especially in an environment like this with desert (dry air) surrounding the storm on both sides. Perhaps dry air infiltrating the core and keeping the strength down might lead to a scenario as CrazyC83 described of this going the entire length of the Gulf.

In the event that Lorena or its remnants effect southern California, I think a lot of the precipitation could be on the San Bernardino Mountains, but strangely coming from the east instead of the west. Palm Springs/Imperial Valley may need to watch out as well for flash flooding in such a case of this storm riding up the Gulf of California.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I agree that it would be the mountains and deserts to the east that would get most of the rain (and wind?) in such a scenario and not the coastal corridor (they probably wouldn't get much of anything). Dry air would be a limiting factor, even though the water in the Gulf of California is generally 29 to 31°C. Land interaction would be somewhat of an issue too, although since Lorena is a small storm, not as much as it could be.

[Astromanía]

Still heading north, I expect a east shift on the track in next advisory by NHC. Gulf of California is a place with very warm waters but surrounded by a dry environment, but as it was said above Lorena is a small system so dry air intrussion or land interaction couldn't be a serious problem for this, so reintensification is a possibility, does someone know how is the wind shear right now on the gulf?

[CrazyC83]

Still heading north, I expect a east shift on the track in next advisory by NHC. Gulf of California is a place with very warm waters but surrounded by a dry environment, but as it was said above Lorena is a small system so dry air intrussion or land interaction couldn't be a serious problem for this, so reintensification is a possibility, does someone know how is the wind shear right now on the gulf?

Not bad right now. Increases about halfway up, but if it is running the trough it might not feel it as much?

[Astromanía]

This will be a major, I said it

[Monsoonjr99]

Such a scenario of a storm tracking all the way up the length of the Gulf of California seems rare due to it being this narrow bowling lane where it's so easy to end up in the gutter. Many storms in the past that entered the Gulf got steered either west into Baja or east into mainland Mexico.

[zeehag]

This will be a major, I said it

too many lives will be lost in that case
please donot cheer this beast on. many anchored boats in soc were counting on this one being in pacific ocean. there is no time to reanchor before storm now for any of them.
bola, la paz..loreto, all the way up the coast boats at anchor been watching for news. today was too late to do anything more than sit in boat and wait the storm out. please donot cheer this on. is giving me an ulcer. out to sea i can cheer. into many areas i can cheer, but not up soc. and this is why i willnot sail up here. once a storm gets into soc there is no escape. is a boat trap. they donot need another odile or worse.
please tell tha t lil eyeball to get to land now. is skimming coast as if it were going to san felipe....

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
DEL SUR...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 109.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
east coast of the Baja California Peninsula from La Paz to Santa
Rosalia.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of the Baja California
Peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Altata to Bahia Kino.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia
Kino

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes
to Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena. Additional warnings may be needed for portions of this area
on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 109.7 West. Lorena is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general motion
toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is
expected to move over the Gulf of California near the east coast of
the Baja California Peninsula through Saturday, then approach the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday
night. After that, Lorena is forecast to weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km). An automated station in La Ventana, Mexico, recently
reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of
54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread across the
hurricane warning area tonight through Saturday night. Hurricane
and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area Saturday
and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches over Baja California Sur and 2 to 4 inches over western
Sonora and far northwest Sinaloa through Sunday. Isolated maximum
amounts around 8 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. This
rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

The eye of Lorena passed near or over the Cabo Pulmo area of the
Baja California peninsula a few hours ago and is currently located
just off of the east coast of the peninsula east-southeast of La
Paz. Satellite imagery indicates that the hurricane remains well
organized, with cold eyewall cloud tops surrounding a cloud-filled
eye. Based on the land interaction that has occurred since the last
advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly
conservative 70 kt.

Lorena has continued to move to the right of the previous forecast
track, and the initial motion is now 330/7. The hurricane is
mostly being steered by a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern
Mexico, and it is moving toward a break in the ridge caused by a
large mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States.
This combination should steer Lorena generally north-northwestward
for the next 2-3 days. The track guidance has continued to shift
to the right since the last advisory. As a result, the new forecast
track has also shifted and now calls for the center of Lorena to
move up the length of the Gulf of California. However, the GFS,
the old version of the GFS, and the ECMWF are all to the right of
the current track, with these models forecasting a more northward
motion into mainland Mexico. Thus, additional adjustments to the
forecast track may be required on subsequent advisories. The new
forecast track requires significant changes to the watches and
warnings for the Baja California peninsula and northwestern mainland
Mexico.

Lorena should spend another 24-36 h over the warm waters of the
Gulf of California in light to moderate shear conditions. The
intensity guidance does not show much strengthening during this
time, and the official forecast follows the guidance. However, it
would not be a surprise if Lorena strengthened a little given the
current structure. After that, the cyclone should encounter
strong shear which would likely cause steady to even rapid
weakening, and the intensity forecast has the system weakening to a
remnant low as it reaches the northern end of the Gulf of
California. If the cyclone makes an earlier landfall in mainland
Mexico, it will likely dissipate faster than currently forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy
rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible this weekend in
parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated
with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the
southwest United States from late this weekend into early next week.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula through tonight, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. It could also bring hurricane
conditions to portions of mainland Mexico where a Hurricane Watch
has been issued.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 24.0N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 25.0N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 26.6N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 28.1N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 29.4N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 31.5N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Astromanía]

Now this is making landfall oficially in Baja California Peninsula near La Paz area, hope everyone is prepared there but due to many changes on the hurricane track a surprise devastation can occur (I hope it doesn´t). No hurricane trough the gulf of California but most probably trough the peninsula, so more towns will be affected by heavy rain and winds. Surprised is only a category one, looking at satellite images it appears more than a cat 1, but the advisory is based on real wind measurents so it's ok , but if this was in the middle of the pacific ocean they would go with higher winds, IMO.

[Kingarabian]

Is this the first time the NHC has used the old GFS in its disco??

[1900hurricane]

Still looks like it's barely offshore with GOES-17.

[Astromanía]

Weakening fast, now over La Paz, BCS

[Astromanía]

Euro, GFS and GFS-Legacy show a turn toward Sonora after affecting BCS with re-intensification

[somethingfunny]

This will be a major, I said it

too many lives will be lost in that case
please donot cheer this beast on. many anchored boats in soc were counting on this one being in pacific ocean. there is no time to reanchor before storm now for any of them.
bola, la paz..loreto, all the way up the coast boats at anchor been watching for news. today was too late to do anything more than sit in boat and wait the storm out. please donot cheer this on. is giving me an ulcer. out to sea i can cheer. into many areas i can cheer, but not up soc. and this is why i willnot sail up here. once a storm gets into soc there is no escape. is a boat trap. they donot need another odile or worse.
please tell tha t lil eyeball to get to land now. is skimming coast as if it were going to san felipe....

The saving grace for mariners in the Sea of Cortez may be that Lorena is a very small storm so there are plenty of places to go outside of the impact zone...

...If only that zone could be more easily forecasted. The way this storm has been zigzagging left and right I'd be very worried about anybody trying to move their boat to a different part of the sea and being surprised by another sudden shift in the track.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 110.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a
Tropical Storm Warning on Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to
Los Barriles.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
mainland from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino and a Tropical Storm Watch
from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Los Barriles

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia
Kino

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro
* Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan
Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito
* Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 110.3 West. Lorena is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general motion toward
the north-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move along
the east coast of Baja California Sur or over the Gulf of California
today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
After that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across
the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions
are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the
hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area by tonight.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts
around 8 inches.

Sonora...3 to 6 inches.

Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Lorena made landfall over the southeastern portion of Baja
California Sur several hours ago, and it has now moved back over the
warm waters of the Gulf of California. Around the time Lorena
made landfall, an observation near La Ventana, Mexico, reported
sustained winds just below hurricane-force and a minimum pressure of
986 mb when it was in the eye of the hurricane. The satellite
appearance of the cyclone has degraded some because of the land
interaction, and an eye is no longer apparent in geostationary
images. The initial intensity for this advisory is set at 65 kt
based on the TAFB Dvorak classification. An ASCAT-C pass confirmed
that Lorena is a compact hurricane, with its tropical-storm-force
winds extending only out to 40 n mi from the center.

Lorena has been a challenging system to forecast as the models have
not had a good handle on its future track. The models this cycle
have all shifted to the east and now show a landfall in mainland
Mexico tonight or Sunday. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the right to be in better agreement with the latest model
solutions, but this forecast still lies on the western side of the
guidance envelope. If this model trend continues, additional shifts
to the right might be needed. Based on this change, the Government
of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of
northwestern Mexico.

The hurricane is expected to maintain its intensity today as it
remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, but a
pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and land interaction
with mainland Mexico should cause a quick weakening on Sunday and
dissipation is likely to occur on Monday. The NHC intensity
forecast is lower than the previous one, but still lies on the high
side of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy
rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible during the next
couple of days in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico.
Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for
heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and
early next week.

2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce hurricane-force winds
over a portion of the southern Baja California today, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. It could also bring hurricane
conditions to portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 24.6N 110.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi