ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

What a mess! They had school today then let them out early! That's more of a pain than just canceling to begin with. Today's threat really caught Houston off guard . Bless Beaumont and Winnie and places east.....

Yep, flash flooding is appropriately named. Zero, to little warning.

[lrak]

I can't believe this is happening again. My prayers to all affected. I can't get a hold of my Aunt in Mont Belvieu...her cell phone rings but then it stops. Is the cell service out around that area? ...thanks

Also the satellite loop is starting to look like one more time Please stay safe and smart everyone. Really prayers are not enough. I will donate to relief efforts as soon as I can.

[CentralTxAggie]

I can't believe this is happening again. My prayers to all affected. I can't get a hold of my Aunt in Mont Belvieu...her cell phone rings but then it stops. Is the cell service out around that area? ...thanks

Also the satellite loop is starting to look like one more time Please stay safe and smart everyone. Really prayers are not enough. I will donate to relief efforts as soon as I can.

have you tried texting?

[lrak]

I can't believe this is happening again. My prayers to all affected. I can't get a hold of my Aunt in Mont Belvieu...her cell phone rings but then it stops. Is the cell service out around that area? ...thanks

Also the satellite loop is starting to look like one more time Please stay safe and smart everyone. Really prayers are not enough. I will donate to relief efforts as soon as I can.

have you tried texting?

Yes, and it won't go through. She is in her late 70s and alone...She is my ex-aunt but we love each other very much....worried.

[loon]

Sure has that TS Allison feel to it.. ooph.

sadly this has seemed to come true.

[jasons2k]

What a mess! They had school today then let them out early! That's more of a pain than just canceling to begin with. Today's threat really caught Houston off guard . Bless Beaumont and Winnie and places east.....

Yep, flash flooding is appropriately named. Zero, to little warning.

Well, we have been under a Flash Flood watch for a couple of days. That's kinda the intent....you can't force people to take it seriously.

Also, the discussions from the WPC started laying this out last night. The HRRR models showed such a band for several consecutive runs. Those who were paying attention were not surprised at all.

[lrak]

Whew...got a hold of her everything is ok

[SoupBone]

What a mess! They had school today then let them out early! That's more of a pain than just canceling to begin with. Today's threat really caught Houston off guard . Bless Beaumont and Winnie and places east.....

Yep, flash flooding is appropriately named. Zero, to little warning.

Well, we have been under a Flash Flood watch for a couple of days. That's kinda the intent....you can't force people to take it seriously.

Also, the discussions from the WPC started laying this out last night. The HRRR models showed such a band for several consecutive runs. Those who were paying attention were not surprised at all.

No, I get that, I'm referring to location specific flash flooding. It's nearly impossible to pinpoint location based flash flooding, by its very definition. It's like tornadoes, we can say that the environment is ripe for them to form, but pinpointing their exact location is a fool's errand.

[StormLogic]

i have some killer videos on my twitter, some are from today around noon.
Every i-10 corridor exit and on ramp from winnie to beaumont completely inundated, the entire N side of i-10 under 3-4 foot of water due to concrete barriers along i-10. even more in some places. its HARVEY all over again.
https://twitter.com/CryptoWolfv9/status/1174736062729674752
https://twitter.com/CryptoWolfv9/status/1174688855179612161
https://twitter.com/CryptoWolfv9/status/1174737251605131264
https://twitter.com/CryptoWolfv9/status/1174736893046640641

[galvbay]

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Steve]

Since a lot of people say that this event caught people by surprise, it hopefully didn't catch anyone at Storm2k by surprise. Any diligent readers would have been aware of the threat going back to last Friday or so. Here's a look back at the anticipated rainfall taking everyone back to a post Saturday morning just before 11 am Central as the 12z models were coming out for 9/14:

ICON targets the Triangle and maybe northern and eastern suburbs of Houston with the heaviest rainfall threat. GFS doesn’t even show much moisture left brining less than 1/2” to coastal Texas. The truth probably lies somewhere between a couple of feet of rain and less than a half inch. ICON keeps firing off storms at the coast while GFS dissipates it. However it does add another 1/2” or so from 84-90 hours just along the coast

ICON accumulated rainfall
/model run

GFS accumulated rainfall
/model run


German Model and the UKMET beat the devil out of the GFS with anticipating the rainfall. Even RGEM and NAM did better with the low depiction. You win some, you lose some, but this is one storm that the GFS was extremely late to figure this out compared to generally inferior models.

[sphelps8681]

Since a lot of people say that this event caught people by surprise, it hopefully didn't catch anyone at Storm2k by surprise. Any diligent readers would have been aware of the threat going back to last Friday or so. Here's a look back at the anticipated rainfall taking everyone back to a post Saturday morning just before 11 am Central as the 12z models were coming out for 9/14:

ICON targets the Triangle and maybe northern and eastern suburbs of Houston with the heaviest rainfall threat. GFS doesn’t even show much moisture left brining less than 1/2” to coastal Texas. The truth probably lies somewhere between a couple of feet of rain and less than a half inch. ICON keeps firing off storms at the coast while GFS dissipates it. However it does add another 1/2” or so from 84-90 hours just along the coast

ICON accumulated rainfall
/model run

GFS accumulated rainfall
/model run


German Model and the UKMET beat the devil out of the GFS with anticipating the rainfall. Even RGEM and NAM did better with the low depiction. You win some, you lose some, but this is one storm that the GFS was extremely late to figure this out compared to generally inferior models.

I live 15 minutes from Beaumont and warned them about this on my webpage. Also posted on the Crystal Beach webpage. You can only do what you can do.

[jabman98]

What a mess! They had school today then let them out early! That's more of a pain than just canceling to begin with.

So true. We were out clearing storm drains. I'm just north and west of downtown Houston. It's trash and recycling day. The bins floated away, emptied their contents and all that blocked the storm drain. Two cars flooded out in park. We were out for about 2-3 hours trying to clear it all out.

So many parents kept coming by trying to get their kids but they couldn't get to the school for all the flooding. So dumb to tell parents to come get the kids in the middle of a flash flood situation. The kids are safe at school. Just let them stay. That's what one of the flooded out cars was--a mom trying to get her kids.

[Steve]

I live 15 minutes from Beaumont and warned them about this on my webpage. Also posted on the Crystal Beach webpage. You can only do what you can do.

You're right. People often get mad at the NHC or whatever, "ZOMG! People are going to become complacent." But so many people already have their cliches ready from "they never come here" to "they always turn toward Florida at the last minute" to just generally ignoring things you'd think would be important - life and property. There is no answer because we've become a relatively dumb and soft nation of many know it alls who don't really know much of anything.

My mother-in-law used to work with a lady who moved out of Louisiana in 1999 because "there are too many hurricanes here." Where did she move? Coastal Florida. Hahaha

What we do know is in the last two years, South and Southeast Texas have had a bullseye for mega rain events. Hopefully these are isolated events in time and not some foreshadowing of many more events to come. I don't have an answer for that. I just hope that most everyone is okay and gets over the flooding a little quicker than last time. :/

[underthwx]

I have noticed on Satellite images of TD Imelda, the cloud cover looks more and more over the Gulf, is it possible it reemerges over the Gulf?

[Buck]

Just saw that Imelda's highest rainfall total so far has just passed Allison's highest. Unreal!

[Stormcenter]

I would hope not but it
is an interesting thought.

I have noticed on Satellite images of TD Imelda, the cloud cover looks more and more over the Gulf, is it possible it reemerges over the Gulf?

[Steve]

I have noticed on Satellite images of TD Imelda, the cloud cover looks more and more over the Gulf, is it possible it reemerges over the Gulf?

I could be wrong because I haven’t looked at surface plots, but I think the low is farther north than all the convection. You can see it best on visible. Either the upper or lower spin decoupled some time last night and you have feeder moisture and inflow to the south, through the gulf and back up north again. Probably a combination of competing air masses along with gulf moisture and remnant low pressure. Fwiw, IR is firing up a bit to the west. Watch after 8/9pm as the storms nearest the coast die off and reform overnight. That’s been the M.O. for 3 days.

[funster]

There is some convection increase to the west of Houston in the past hour. Imelda really needs to stop pulsing and die.

[underthwx]

I have noticed on Satellite images of TD Imelda, the cloud cover looks more and more over the Gulf, is it possible it reemerges over the Gulf?

I could be wrong because I haven’t looked at surface plots, but I think the low is farther north than all the convection. You can see it best on visible. Either the upper or lower spin decoupled some time last night and you have feeder moisture and inflow to the south, through the gulf and back up north again. Probably a combination of competing air masses along with gulf moisture and remnant low pressure. Fwiw, IR is firing up a bit to the west. Watch after 8/9pm as the storms nearest the coast die off and reform overnight. That’s been the M.O. for 3 days.

Thanks Steve, in the middle of this, I hesitated to ask that question, I wondered if the cloud mass was expanding, giving the illusion of moving out over the water, thank you for your reply, I do wish you, and all of you in harms way, the best, Harvey took my home, and although we are in better shape here in West Columbia, the rain has come to us, but I am concerned for all of yall, be safe.