ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:29 pm

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2019, DB, O, 2019091406, 9999999999, , 024, , , 8, METWATCH, , AL982019


AL, 98, 2019091600, , BEST, 0, 271N, 920W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
AL, 98, 2019091606, , BEST, 0, 271N, 927W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
AL, 98, 2019091612, , BEST, 0, 271N, 935W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
AL, 98, 2019091618, , BEST, 0, 272N, 943W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
AL, 98, 2019091700, , BEST, 0, 273N, 950W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, SPAWNINVEST, al772019 to al982019,


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for the GOM area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120566
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#2 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:38 pm

Deserves an invest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#3 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:41 pm

Steve wrote:Deserves an invest.


Since there are no real requirements, this should have been done days ago.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#4 Postby Tailspin » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:46 pm

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1173699306039021568


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#5 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:49 pm

Yeah they could have. Mesoscale models did a nice job with the umbrella presentation across the north Gulf on their own from late week. I think it was clear we were going to get a surface low with a nice radar and satellite presentation, but the ceiling was pretty low. That’s not to take away from the potentially excessive precipitation or offshore gales.

Somebody tweeted overachiever in the TT thread. That’s always on the table. We’ll have to look at the longer mesoscale models that come out in the next hour or so to get their look through the possible flood period. No guess from me now whether or not this gets classified. Might look better than the what the winds are though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#6 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:53 pm

So this is not an invest?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:56 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:So this is not an invest?


Yes. That post from Ph Papin was in the afternoon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#8 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:57 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:So this is not an invest?


It was finally designated Invest 98L by NHC earlier this evening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:00 pm

Location: 27.3°N 95.0°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#10 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:11 pm

The concern I have from a development point is that curvature of the Texas coast gives it more time over water.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:35 pm

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1173771069628571653


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:38 pm

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1173770995275988993


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#13 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:38 pm

Blown Away wrote:The GOM folks deserve some time on Storm2k... :D


No thanks. I really was looking forward to going to New Orleans next month. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#14 Postby lrak » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Location: 27.3°N 95.0°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM


https://i.imgur.com/jxhVqh4.png


Steering Layer 700-850mb is due west. Sure would be nice to see this barrel in and hook at around Laredo and head to the north a bit for our Austin desert family.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#15 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:52 pm

What is the movement for this invest? As far as direction.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:54 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:What is the movement for this invest? As far as direction.


West at 7 kts.

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#17 Postby lrak » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:56 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:What is the movement for this invest? As far as direction.


very slow west direction. Maybe later tonight the NHC will have some better information.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#18 Postby hipshot » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:56 pm

lrak wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Location: 27.3°N 95.0°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM


https://i.imgur.com/jxhVqh4.png


Steering Layer 700-850mb is due west. Sure would be nice to see this barrel in and hook at around Laredo and head to the north a bit for our Austin desert family.

Our weather forecast here in the Dallas area is some possible precip from this on Thursday time frame with cooler temps, sure hope so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:57 pm

This could beat 97L to development at this rate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#20 Postby txag2005 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:59 pm

Little concerned about the huge rain totals thru Friday the models are showing for the Houston area. :eek:
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