BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to recurve
over the western Atlantic during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass well east of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western
Atlantic on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next
several days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
RAINFALL STATEMENT: Jerry is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated amounts of 3 inches,
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, Anegada, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission earlier this
morning indicated that Jerry had weakened, with the mid-level
eye/center tilted to the east of the low-level center due to some
westerly mid-level wind shear. The highest 700-mb flight-level and
SFMR surface winds reported were 62 kt and 56 kt, respectively,
which supports a lower intensity of about 55 kt. The minimum
pressure of 995 mb is based on center dropsonde data of 999 mb with
a 38-kt surface wind.
Jerry has turned northwestward and the initial motion estimate is
now 310/13 kt. Jerry is forecast to continue moving northwestward
toward a break in the subtropical ridge today through Sunday,
followed by a northward turn on Monday. By Tuesday, a deep-layer
trough is expected to capture Jerry and accelerate the cyclone
northeastward in the general direction of Bermuda. There remains
excellent agreement among the track models on this developing
scenario, and the official track lies close to the tightly packed
consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.
Jerry is likely to experience fluctuations in intensity during the
next 72 hours due to increases/decreases in the vertical wind shear
affecting the cyclone. By 96 hours as Jerry moves closer to Bermuda,
the cyclone is forecast to come move into the right-rear entrance
region of a modest jetstream maximum, not unlike what occurred with
former Hurricane Humberto a few days ago. Thus, despite the expected
increase in the vertical wind shear to at least 30 kt,
re-intensification into a hurricane is forecast similar to a
consensus of the global models.
Key Messages:
1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern
Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there
overnight.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 21.4N 64.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 22.7N 65.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 26.0N 67.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 27.3N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 29.8N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 33.2N 63.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 36.7N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
ATL: JERRY - Advisories
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
...CENTER OF JERRY PASSING WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 65.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 65.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to turn
northward on Sunday and then accelerate northeastward early next
week. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to
pass well north Puerto Rico today and pass well east of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds of Jerry remain near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next several days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
hurricane hunter plane is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane has investigated Jerry
this morning and found that the tropical storm has become quite
disorganized. The highest flight level winds reported by the plane
at the 700 mb level were 59 kt, which supports holding the
intensity at 55 kt. The highest reliable SFMR winds were lower and
the minimum pressure estimated from the plane data was 999 mb, so
its possible that Jerry's winds are actually a little lower.
Jerry is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion of
315/12 kt. The track guidance is still in very good agreement on
the forecast track for the tropical storm, and only small changes
were made to the track forecast. Jerry should continue
northwestward today, and then turn northward on Sunday toward a
break in the subtropical ridge. By late Monday or Tuesday, Jerry
should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate in that direction
ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, likely passing near
Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The track guidance is
still tightly clustered, especially for the first 72 h of the
forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the consensus throughout the
5-day period.
Because Jerry is not well organized at the moment, no strengthening
is expected in the short term. The NHC forecast now calls for little
change in Jerry's intensity for the next couple days, and I can't
rule out that additional weakening could occur later today or
tomorrow. Most of the guidance suggests that restrengthening could
then occur once Jerry turns northeastward ahead of the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough, perhaps in part due to
baroclinic forcing. Jerry is still forecast to become a hurricane
again before the end of the forecast period, but the NHC forecast is
now on the high side of the guidance, a little above the consensus.
Key Messages:
1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves
near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to
determine what impacts the system may have on the island but
interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 22.0N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 23.3N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 25.0N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 26.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 27.8N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 30.6N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 34.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 38.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
...CENTER OF JERRY PASSING WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 65.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 65.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to turn
northward on Sunday and then accelerate northeastward early next
week. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to
pass well north Puerto Rico today and pass well east of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds of Jerry remain near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next several days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
hurricane hunter plane is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane has investigated Jerry
this morning and found that the tropical storm has become quite
disorganized. The highest flight level winds reported by the plane
at the 700 mb level were 59 kt, which supports holding the
intensity at 55 kt. The highest reliable SFMR winds were lower and
the minimum pressure estimated from the plane data was 999 mb, so
its possible that Jerry's winds are actually a little lower.
Jerry is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion of
315/12 kt. The track guidance is still in very good agreement on
the forecast track for the tropical storm, and only small changes
were made to the track forecast. Jerry should continue
northwestward today, and then turn northward on Sunday toward a
break in the subtropical ridge. By late Monday or Tuesday, Jerry
should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate in that direction
ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, likely passing near
Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The track guidance is
still tightly clustered, especially for the first 72 h of the
forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the consensus throughout the
5-day period.
Because Jerry is not well organized at the moment, no strengthening
is expected in the short term. The NHC forecast now calls for little
change in Jerry's intensity for the next couple days, and I can't
rule out that additional weakening could occur later today or
tomorrow. Most of the guidance suggests that restrengthening could
then occur once Jerry turns northeastward ahead of the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough, perhaps in part due to
baroclinic forcing. Jerry is still forecast to become a hurricane
again before the end of the forecast period, but the NHC forecast is
now on the high side of the guidance, a little above the consensus.
Key Messages:
1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves
near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to
determine what impacts the system may have on the island but
interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 22.0N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 23.3N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 25.0N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 26.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 27.8N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 30.6N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 34.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 38.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight. Jerry is forecast to turn
northward on Sunday and then gradually accelerate northeastward
early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast for the next
several days, but short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) is based on
data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft which is currently flying a
research mission around Jerry.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
Jerry has become quite disorganized this afternoon. The low-level
center is exposed to the northwest of a small area of persistent
deep convection. The NOAA G-IV aircraft, which is flying a research
mission in and around the tropical storm, measured a minimum
pressure of 1004 mb with 17 kt of wind, implying that the minimum
pressure of Jerry has increased since this morning. However, ASCAT
data from a couple hours after an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
plane completed its mission into Jerry showed that the maximum winds
were still 50-55 kt. The max winds are therefore conservatively held
at 55 kt for this advisory.
Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast, and
users should not focus on the 5 kt difference between a tropical
storm and hurricane, especially at 72 h and beyond. Based on Jerry's
disheveled appearance, significant strengthening does not seem
imminent. That said, the HWRF and HMON forecast that the cyclone
will quickly restrengthen tonight or tomorrow and become a hurricane
again. If the shear decreases during the next 24 hours, that is
possible, however SHIPS diagnostics suggest that will not happen.
The NHC forecast instead follows the statistical guidance, and keeps
Jerry in a more-or-less steady state through day 5. The cyclone is
still forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near
Bermuda next week, and there is still a distinct possibility that
Jerry will re-gain hurricane strength at some point during the next
5 days.
All of the models still show Jerry turning northward later today or
on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge, and then turning
northeastward ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This
track will bring Jerry close to Bermuda by late Tuesday or early
Wednesday. The model spread has increased a little since the last
advisory, but confidence in this scenario is still high. The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted only slightly to the west and
remains near the multi-model consensus through day 5.
Key Messages:
1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves
near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to
determine what impacts the system may have on the island but
interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 23.0N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 25.8N 67.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 27.0N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 28.5N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 31.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 35.5N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight. Jerry is forecast to turn
northward on Sunday and then gradually accelerate northeastward
early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast for the next
several days, but short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) is based on
data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft which is currently flying a
research mission around Jerry.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
Jerry has become quite disorganized this afternoon. The low-level
center is exposed to the northwest of a small area of persistent
deep convection. The NOAA G-IV aircraft, which is flying a research
mission in and around the tropical storm, measured a minimum
pressure of 1004 mb with 17 kt of wind, implying that the minimum
pressure of Jerry has increased since this morning. However, ASCAT
data from a couple hours after an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
plane completed its mission into Jerry showed that the maximum winds
were still 50-55 kt. The max winds are therefore conservatively held
at 55 kt for this advisory.
Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast, and
users should not focus on the 5 kt difference between a tropical
storm and hurricane, especially at 72 h and beyond. Based on Jerry's
disheveled appearance, significant strengthening does not seem
imminent. That said, the HWRF and HMON forecast that the cyclone
will quickly restrengthen tonight or tomorrow and become a hurricane
again. If the shear decreases during the next 24 hours, that is
possible, however SHIPS diagnostics suggest that will not happen.
The NHC forecast instead follows the statistical guidance, and keeps
Jerry in a more-or-less steady state through day 5. The cyclone is
still forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near
Bermuda next week, and there is still a distinct possibility that
Jerry will re-gain hurricane strength at some point during the next
5 days.
All of the models still show Jerry turning northward later today or
on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge, and then turning
northeastward ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This
track will bring Jerry close to Bermuda by late Tuesday or early
Wednesday. The model spread has increased a little since the last
advisory, but confidence in this scenario is still high. The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted only slightly to the west and
remains near the multi-model consensus through day 5.
Key Messages:
1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves
near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to
determine what impacts the system may have on the island but
interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 23.0N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 25.8N 67.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 27.0N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 28.5N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 31.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 35.5N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 66.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 66.3 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected Sunday and Monday,
followed by a turn toward the northeast late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda late Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
several days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
Jerry's center is still exposed to the northwest of the bulk of the
deep convection, although a new burst of thunderstorms is just now
developing just to the southeast of the center. With no
significant change to the storm's structure, the initial intensity
is held at 55 kt, which matches a blend of final-T and CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS is depicting 15-20 kt of westerly
shear over Jerry at the moment, although the analysis suggests that
the cyclone could sneak into a slightly lower-shear environment
during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, however, Jerry is
expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level trough, putting the
system under counterbalancing influences of strong shear but
stronger divergence aloft. Because of these conditions, only small
fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 4 days or
so. Jerry will be bumping up against a baroclinic zone while
interacting with the trough, and it's likely that extratropical
transition will at least commence while this system is over the
western Atlantic. At this point, however, that transition is not
expected to be complete before the end of the 5-day forecast period.
The initial motion is northwestward, or 325/13 kt. Jerry is still
expected to continue recurving around the subtropical ridge,
interact with the western Atlantic trough in about 48 hours, and
then become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies from day 3
onward. Except for a slight westward kink in the track between
48-72, resulting from Jerry's expected interaction with the trough,
little change in the NHC track forecast was required from the
previous one.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 24.1N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 25.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 26.7N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 28.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 29.4N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 32.6N 66.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 36.8N 60.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 40.8N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 66.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 66.3 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected Sunday and Monday,
followed by a turn toward the northeast late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda late Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
several days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
Jerry's center is still exposed to the northwest of the bulk of the
deep convection, although a new burst of thunderstorms is just now
developing just to the southeast of the center. With no
significant change to the storm's structure, the initial intensity
is held at 55 kt, which matches a blend of final-T and CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS is depicting 15-20 kt of westerly
shear over Jerry at the moment, although the analysis suggests that
the cyclone could sneak into a slightly lower-shear environment
during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, however, Jerry is
expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level trough, putting the
system under counterbalancing influences of strong shear but
stronger divergence aloft. Because of these conditions, only small
fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 4 days or
so. Jerry will be bumping up against a baroclinic zone while
interacting with the trough, and it's likely that extratropical
transition will at least commence while this system is over the
western Atlantic. At this point, however, that transition is not
expected to be complete before the end of the 5-day forecast period.
The initial motion is northwestward, or 325/13 kt. Jerry is still
expected to continue recurving around the subtropical ridge,
interact with the western Atlantic trough in about 48 hours, and
then become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies from day 3
onward. Except for a slight westward kink in the track between
48-72, resulting from Jerry's expected interaction with the trough,
little change in the NHC track forecast was required from the
previous one.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 24.1N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 25.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 26.7N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 28.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 29.4N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 32.6N 66.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 36.8N 60.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 40.8N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
...JERRY TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 66.9W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
A very large burst of deep convection has formed near Jerry, but
there is no sign from recent microwave data that it is causing any
significant change in structure. The center still appears
to be on the northwestern edge of the deep convection, which is
consistent with a tropical cyclone undergoing moderate-to-strong
northwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, a bit
above the ASCAT pass from several hours ago, but at that time the
center was exposed, so it is reasonable to think the system is a bit
stronger than shown in that pass. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should investigate the system around 1200 UTC.
Overall, there are a lot of mixed signals with the future strength
of Jerry. While the storm should remain over very warm waters, any
relaxation of the current shear isn't expected to last very long,
and the consensus of the models is that an expected mid-latitude
trough interaction should lead to much weakening or strengthening.
Thus, little change in strength is shown throughout the period,
similar to the last forecast, and only slight weakening is shown at
long range as Jerry undergoes the first stages of extratropical
transition.
The initial motion is slower to the north-northwest, 330/10 kt.
The biggest change from the past advisory is shifting the forecast
track westward about half a degree in about 48 hours, with more of
the models showing that the aforementioned trough interaction will
steer the storm more to the left. Jerry should then accelelerate
to the northeast ahead of the next mid-latitude trough, and the
forecast track is a little faster at long range.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 25.0N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 26.3N 67.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 27.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 29.0N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 34.0N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 39.0N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 43.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
...JERRY TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 66.9W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
A very large burst of deep convection has formed near Jerry, but
there is no sign from recent microwave data that it is causing any
significant change in structure. The center still appears
to be on the northwestern edge of the deep convection, which is
consistent with a tropical cyclone undergoing moderate-to-strong
northwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, a bit
above the ASCAT pass from several hours ago, but at that time the
center was exposed, so it is reasonable to think the system is a bit
stronger than shown in that pass. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should investigate the system around 1200 UTC.
Overall, there are a lot of mixed signals with the future strength
of Jerry. While the storm should remain over very warm waters, any
relaxation of the current shear isn't expected to last very long,
and the consensus of the models is that an expected mid-latitude
trough interaction should lead to much weakening or strengthening.
Thus, little change in strength is shown throughout the period,
similar to the last forecast, and only slight weakening is shown at
long range as Jerry undergoes the first stages of extratropical
transition.
The initial motion is slower to the north-northwest, 330/10 kt.
The biggest change from the past advisory is shifting the forecast
track westward about half a degree in about 48 hours, with more of
the models showing that the aforementioned trough interaction will
steer the storm more to the left. Jerry should then accelelerate
to the northeast ahead of the next mid-latitude trough, and the
forecast track is a little faster at long range.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 25.0N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 26.3N 67.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 27.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 29.0N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 34.0N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 39.0N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 43.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
...JERRY CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 66.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 66.6 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day
or so.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
Jerry is not well organized on satellite images, with a
ragged-looking CDO and limited banding features over the eastern
semicircle. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate a slight fall in central pressure but the maximum winds
remain near 55 kt. The storm is under the influence of westerly
shear, and the numerical guidance does not indicated that this
shear will relax during the forecast period. Therefore, only slight
strengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. This is a
little above most of the model guidance.
Jerry continues to move north-northwestward, or 340/9 kt, through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-tropospheric trough
moving off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days should
cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward to northeastward
with some acceleration later in the forecast period. The official
track forecast is close to the previous one and is also similar to
the corrected consensus model guidance.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 25.7N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 26.9N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 28.2N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 40.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
...JERRY CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 66.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 66.6 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day
or so.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
Jerry is not well organized on satellite images, with a
ragged-looking CDO and limited banding features over the eastern
semicircle. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate a slight fall in central pressure but the maximum winds
remain near 55 kt. The storm is under the influence of westerly
shear, and the numerical guidance does not indicated that this
shear will relax during the forecast period. Therefore, only slight
strengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. This is a
little above most of the model guidance.
Jerry continues to move north-northwestward, or 340/9 kt, through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-tropospheric trough
moving off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days should
cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward to northeastward
with some acceleration later in the forecast period. The official
track forecast is close to the previous one and is also similar to
the corrected consensus model guidance.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 25.7N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 26.9N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 28.2N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 40.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
...JERRY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 66.9W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north-northeast on Tuesday, and toward the northeast on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected
to pass near Bermuda Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
Jerry continues to struggle to become better organized in an
environment of moderate westerly vertical shear. The low-level
center is near the western side of the main area of deep
convection, and the overall cloud pattern remains rather
ragged-looking. Flight-level, SFMR-observed, and Doppler wind data
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the intensity
remains near 55 kt. The dynamical guidance shows that the shear
will remain rather strong throughout much of the forecast period,
so the official forecast shows little change in strength for the
next couple of days followed by gradual weakening. This is a
little above the intensity model consensus.
The motion is still north-northwestward or 345/8 kt. Jerry
continues to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. In a
couple of days, a mid-latitude trough moving off the northeast U.S.
coast should cause the storm to turn north-northeastward to
northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed in the
latter part of the forecast period, Jerry is likely to move
east-northeastward at a faster speed, following the mid-level
westerly flow. The official forecast is a bit slower than the
previous one and leans toward the corrected dynamical model
consensus, HCCA.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday night and
Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may
have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of
Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued tonight for Bermuda.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 26.7N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 27.7N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 29.0N 67.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 31.8N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 34.4N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
...JERRY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 66.9W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north-northeast on Tuesday, and toward the northeast on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected
to pass near Bermuda Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
Jerry continues to struggle to become better organized in an
environment of moderate westerly vertical shear. The low-level
center is near the western side of the main area of deep
convection, and the overall cloud pattern remains rather
ragged-looking. Flight-level, SFMR-observed, and Doppler wind data
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the intensity
remains near 55 kt. The dynamical guidance shows that the shear
will remain rather strong throughout much of the forecast period,
so the official forecast shows little change in strength for the
next couple of days followed by gradual weakening. This is a
little above the intensity model consensus.
The motion is still north-northwestward or 345/8 kt. Jerry
continues to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. In a
couple of days, a mid-latitude trough moving off the northeast U.S.
coast should cause the storm to turn north-northeastward to
northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed in the
latter part of the forecast period, Jerry is likely to move
east-northeastward at a faster speed, following the mid-level
westerly flow. The official forecast is a bit slower than the
previous one and leans toward the corrected dynamical model
consensus, HCCA.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday night and
Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may
have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of
Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued tonight for Bermuda.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 26.7N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 27.7N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 29.0N 67.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 31.8N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 34.4N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
...JERRY HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 67.2W
ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 67.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion should continue on Monday. A turn to the north is
expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected
to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
Jerry has been relatively steady state this evening. Microwave
data indicate that the low-level center of the storm is located near
the western edge of the main area of deep convection due to strong
westerly wind shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated
the storm a few hours ago, and a combination of the flight-level
wind and dropsonde data suggest that the initial intensity is still
55 kt. The minimum pressure measured by the aircraft has also been
steady at 993 mb. The initial wind radii have been modified
slightly based on the aircraft data and a recent ASCAT pass.
The tropical storm is currently located in a region of strong
westerly wind shear to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level
trough. The shear is expected to remain relatively strong during
the next several days, which in combination with drier air and
decreasing SSTs along the forecast track should cause gradual
weakening during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast
is a little lower than the previous one to become in better
agreement with the latest HCCA and IVCN guidance.
Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt, and that general
motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered
by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A sharp turn toward the
northeast and then the east is predicted after that when the trough
reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. There remains a fair amount of spread in
the model tracks, especially from days 3 to 5. The NHC track
forecast is a tad to the right of the previous one, leaning toward
the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.
Key Messages:
1. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda. Tropical-
storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late Tuesday.
2. Large swells are expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 27.4N 67.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 28.4N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 29.8N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 31.2N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 32.4N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 35.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 37.3N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 38.5N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
...JERRY HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 67.2W
ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 67.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion should continue on Monday. A turn to the north is
expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected
to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
Jerry has been relatively steady state this evening. Microwave
data indicate that the low-level center of the storm is located near
the western edge of the main area of deep convection due to strong
westerly wind shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated
the storm a few hours ago, and a combination of the flight-level
wind and dropsonde data suggest that the initial intensity is still
55 kt. The minimum pressure measured by the aircraft has also been
steady at 993 mb. The initial wind radii have been modified
slightly based on the aircraft data and a recent ASCAT pass.
The tropical storm is currently located in a region of strong
westerly wind shear to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level
trough. The shear is expected to remain relatively strong during
the next several days, which in combination with drier air and
decreasing SSTs along the forecast track should cause gradual
weakening during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast
is a little lower than the previous one to become in better
agreement with the latest HCCA and IVCN guidance.
Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt, and that general
motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered
by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A sharp turn toward the
northeast and then the east is predicted after that when the trough
reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. There remains a fair amount of spread in
the model tracks, especially from days 3 to 5. The NHC track
forecast is a tad to the right of the previous one, leaning toward
the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.
Key Messages:
1. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda. Tropical-
storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late Tuesday.
2. Large swells are expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 27.4N 67.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 28.4N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 29.8N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 31.2N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 32.4N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 35.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 37.3N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 38.5N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
...JERRY CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 67.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 67.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is
expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to
pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
Overnight the center of Jerry became partially exposed, a result of
strong westerly shear. However, a new burst of very deep
convection has recently formed and obscured the low-level center
again. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is well
supported by earlier ASCAT data, and another reconaissance mission
is scheduled for this morning to take a closer look.
The current shear is forecast to slightly weaken during the next
few days as the storm moves over progressively cooler waters with
drier air in the mid-levels. There will also be a mid-latitude
trough that will be near Jerry in a day or so, but the
evidence is piling up that the trough interaction will be a neutral
or negative factor for the storm. The intensity forecast is held
almost the same as the previous one, following the corrected-
consensus guidance. The cyclone could be close to dissipating
around day 5 due to continuation of the shear and cold water if the
latest global models are correct, so the forecast is lowered at
that time.
Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 8 kt, and that general
motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered
by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A sharp turn toward the
northeast and then the east is forecast after that when the trough
reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. There are some substantial speed
differences in the models, partially due to the aforementioned
trough interaction, but most of the models are still in agreement
with the above scenario. The new forecast is close to the previous
one, adjusted somewhat to the south at longer range.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 27.8N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 28.6N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 30.1N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 31.3N 68.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 32.6N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 35.5N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 37.0N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 37.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
...JERRY CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 67.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 67.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is
expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to
pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
Overnight the center of Jerry became partially exposed, a result of
strong westerly shear. However, a new burst of very deep
convection has recently formed and obscured the low-level center
again. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is well
supported by earlier ASCAT data, and another reconaissance mission
is scheduled for this morning to take a closer look.
The current shear is forecast to slightly weaken during the next
few days as the storm moves over progressively cooler waters with
drier air in the mid-levels. There will also be a mid-latitude
trough that will be near Jerry in a day or so, but the
evidence is piling up that the trough interaction will be a neutral
or negative factor for the storm. The intensity forecast is held
almost the same as the previous one, following the corrected-
consensus guidance. The cyclone could be close to dissipating
around day 5 due to continuation of the shear and cold water if the
latest global models are correct, so the forecast is lowered at
that time.
Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 8 kt, and that general
motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered
by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A sharp turn toward the
northeast and then the east is forecast after that when the trough
reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. There are some substantial speed
differences in the models, partially due to the aforementioned
trough interaction, but most of the models are still in agreement
with the above scenario. The new forecast is close to the previous
one, adjusted somewhat to the south at longer range.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 27.8N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 28.6N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 30.1N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 31.3N 68.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 32.6N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 35.5N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 37.0N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 37.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 68.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion should continue tonight. A turn to the northeast is
expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected
to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
The low-level center of Jerry became fully exposed to the west of
the convection earlier today. Later, however, new convection formed
near or just north of the center. The storm continues to be
affected by strong westerly shear associated with a sharp
upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic. The current
intensity estimate remains 55 kt, which is consistent with data
from an earlier ASCAT overpass. The dynamical guidance shows only
a brief relaxation of the shear over the next several days, and the
ambient air mass becomes quite dry in 3 to 5 days. Therefore, slow
but steady weakening is forecast. This is close to the latest
simple and corrected intensity model consensus predictions.
Jerry has slowed its forward speed today and the motion is now just
5 kt toward the north-northwest. The tropical cyclone should
continue to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge
tonight, and then turn toward the north and northeast under the
influence of a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast
U.S. coast. In 2 to 4 days, Jerry is expected to move just north of
east while embedded in nearly zonal flow. By the end of the
forecast period, some of the models now show a slightly south of
east motion as the cyclone moves along the northeast periphery of a
subtropical anticyclone. The official track forecast is slower than
the previous one, especially during the latter part of the period.
This is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus guidance,
HCCA.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 28.4N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 29.6N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 30.9N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 32.1N 66.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 33.3N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 36.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 35.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 68.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion should continue tonight. A turn to the northeast is
expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected
to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
The low-level center of Jerry became fully exposed to the west of
the convection earlier today. Later, however, new convection formed
near or just north of the center. The storm continues to be
affected by strong westerly shear associated with a sharp
upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic. The current
intensity estimate remains 55 kt, which is consistent with data
from an earlier ASCAT overpass. The dynamical guidance shows only
a brief relaxation of the shear over the next several days, and the
ambient air mass becomes quite dry in 3 to 5 days. Therefore, slow
but steady weakening is forecast. This is close to the latest
simple and corrected intensity model consensus predictions.
Jerry has slowed its forward speed today and the motion is now just
5 kt toward the north-northwest. The tropical cyclone should
continue to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge
tonight, and then turn toward the north and northeast under the
influence of a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast
U.S. coast. In 2 to 4 days, Jerry is expected to move just north of
east while embedded in nearly zonal flow. By the end of the
forecast period, some of the models now show a slightly south of
east motion as the cyclone moves along the northeast periphery of a
subtropical anticyclone. The official track forecast is slower than
the previous one, especially during the latter part of the period.
This is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus guidance,
HCCA.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 28.4N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 29.6N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 30.9N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 32.1N 66.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 33.3N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 36.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 35.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
...JERRY CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 68.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. A turn to the
northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
...JERRY CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 68.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. A turn to the
northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
...JERRY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 68.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. A turn to the
northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday.
Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near
65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast
during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
Surface and flight-level data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigating Jerry this evening indicate that
Jerry's maximum sustained winds are holding steady at 55 kt. The
measured minimum central pressure of 991 mb is also unchanged.
Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 55 kt.
Jerry is currently moving within a rather harsh environment produced
by a high amplitude mid- to upper-level trough situated between the
cyclone and the eastern seaboard of the United States. The
statistical-dynamical Decay SHIPS from both the GFS and ECMWF show
the moderate westerly shear and the inhibiting thermodynamic
environment persisting through the entire forecast. Therefore,
gradual weakening is forecast. The NHC forecast is basically an
update of the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA HFIP HCCA
intensity consensus.
The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 350/6 kt. Jerry
will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical
ridge during the next 12 hours or so, and then turn northeastward
within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by the
aforementioned trough. Around mid-period, Jerry should move
east-northeastward within the deep-layer mid-latitude zonal flow,
then a little to the south of east in the peripheral flow of the
subtropical high anchored to the southwest of the cyclone. The
official forecast is a little to the south of the previous one
beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN simple consensus and the
GFS and ECMWF global models.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 29.2N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 30.1N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 31.2N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 32.4N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 33.3N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 34.9N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 35.0N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 33.9N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
...JERRY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 68.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. A turn to the
northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday.
Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near
65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast
during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
Surface and flight-level data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigating Jerry this evening indicate that
Jerry's maximum sustained winds are holding steady at 55 kt. The
measured minimum central pressure of 991 mb is also unchanged.
Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 55 kt.
Jerry is currently moving within a rather harsh environment produced
by a high amplitude mid- to upper-level trough situated between the
cyclone and the eastern seaboard of the United States. The
statistical-dynamical Decay SHIPS from both the GFS and ECMWF show
the moderate westerly shear and the inhibiting thermodynamic
environment persisting through the entire forecast. Therefore,
gradual weakening is forecast. The NHC forecast is basically an
update of the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA HFIP HCCA
intensity consensus.
The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 350/6 kt. Jerry
will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical
ridge during the next 12 hours or so, and then turn northeastward
within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by the
aforementioned trough. Around mid-period, Jerry should move
east-northeastward within the deep-layer mid-latitude zonal flow,
then a little to the south of east in the peripheral flow of the
subtropical high anchored to the southwest of the cyclone. The
official forecast is a little to the south of the previous one
beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN simple consensus and the
GFS and ECMWF global models.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 29.2N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 30.1N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 31.2N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 32.4N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 33.3N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 34.9N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 35.0N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 33.9N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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AJC3
- Admin
- Posts: 3873
- Age: 60
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: West Melbourne, Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...WEAKENING JERRY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 68.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east-
northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry
is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...WEAKENING JERRY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 68.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east-
northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry
is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
Conventional satellite imagery and a series of recent microwave
images show that Jerry's cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate.
Diminishing deep convection is now confined to the north portion of
the cyclone. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS respectively,
support decreasing the initial intensity to 50 kt.
Strong vertical shear and an intruding dry, stable thermodynamic
atmosphere associated with a high amplitude mid- to upper-level
trough moving off of the east coast of the U.S. is finally taking
its toll on Jerry. Weakening has begun, and the statistical-
dynamical intensity guidance, as well as the large-scale
deterministic models show the aforementioned inhibiting environment
persisting through the entire 5 day period. Consequently, further
weakening is expected, and Jerry should degenerate into a remnant
low in 4 days, with dissipation occuring over the weekend, and this
scenario is consistent with global model forecasts.
The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. Jerry
will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical
ridge through most of today, then turn northeastward later
tonight within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by
the previously mentioned approaching trough. Around mid-period,
Jerry should move east-northeastward within the deep-layer
mid-latitude zonal flow, then a little to the south of east in the
peripheral flow of the subtropical high anchored to the southwest of
the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is somewhat slower beyond the
24 hour period than the previous advisory to align more with the
reliable TVCA multi-model consensus.
Wind radii were adjusted based on 0150 UTC MetOp scatterometer
data, and the forecast wind radii for the 24 and 36 hour periods
are based on the global and regional model RVCN consensus.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today.
Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 29.8N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 30.6N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 31.7N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 32.7N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 33.6N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 34.9N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z 35.0N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
Conventional satellite imagery and a series of recent microwave
images show that Jerry's cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate.
Diminishing deep convection is now confined to the north portion of
the cyclone. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS respectively,
support decreasing the initial intensity to 50 kt.
Strong vertical shear and an intruding dry, stable thermodynamic
atmosphere associated with a high amplitude mid- to upper-level
trough moving off of the east coast of the U.S. is finally taking
its toll on Jerry. Weakening has begun, and the statistical-
dynamical intensity guidance, as well as the large-scale
deterministic models show the aforementioned inhibiting environment
persisting through the entire 5 day period. Consequently, further
weakening is expected, and Jerry should degenerate into a remnant
low in 4 days, with dissipation occuring over the weekend, and this
scenario is consistent with global model forecasts.
The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. Jerry
will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical
ridge through most of today, then turn northeastward later
tonight within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by
the previously mentioned approaching trough. Around mid-period,
Jerry should move east-northeastward within the deep-layer
mid-latitude zonal flow, then a little to the south of east in the
peripheral flow of the subtropical high anchored to the southwest of
the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is somewhat slower beyond the
24 hour period than the previous advisory to align more with the
reliable TVCA multi-model consensus.
Wind radii were adjusted based on 0150 UTC MetOp scatterometer
data, and the forecast wind radii for the 24 and 36 hour periods
are based on the global and regional model RVCN consensus.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today.
Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 29.8N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 30.6N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 31.7N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 32.7N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 33.6N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 34.9N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z 35.0N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...JERRY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA
TOMORROW...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 69.3W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
30.8 North, longitude 69.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the north
near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by
tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...JERRY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA
TOMORROW...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 69.3W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
30.8 North, longitude 69.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the north
near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by
tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
Jerry's interaction with an upper-level trough has resulted in a
system that is less tropical in appearance, with a lack of
central convection and most of the heavier showers displaced
to the west and well southeast of the center. In fact, the cyclone
looks somewhat subtropical at this time. For simplicity, however,
we will continue to carry Jerry as a tropical storm. Flight-level
winds from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter plane still
support an intensity of 50 kt. Jerry will be encountering an
increasingly unfavorable environment during the next few days, with
the ambient air mass becoming drier and vertical shear becoming
stronger. The official intensity forecast calls for continued
weakening and degeneration to a remnant low later in the forecast
period. This is similar to the consensus of the model guidance.
Based on fixes from the Hurricane Hunters, the center has moved a
little to the left of previous estimates, and the initial motion
estimate is 350/6 kt. There are no significant changes to the
track forecast philosophy, however. Over the next couple of days
Jerry should turn northeastward and then east-northeastward in the
flow to the south of a broad mid-latitude trough. Later in the
period, the weakening cyclone should move eastward to
east-southeastward on the northeast side of a subtropical
anticyclone. The official track forecast is close to the previous
one and in general agreement with the corrected multi-model
consensus guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by tonight or
early Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 30.8N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 31.7N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 32.6N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 33.5N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 34.2N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 35.0N 57.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z 34.5N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
Jerry's interaction with an upper-level trough has resulted in a
system that is less tropical in appearance, with a lack of
central convection and most of the heavier showers displaced
to the west and well southeast of the center. In fact, the cyclone
looks somewhat subtropical at this time. For simplicity, however,
we will continue to carry Jerry as a tropical storm. Flight-level
winds from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter plane still
support an intensity of 50 kt. Jerry will be encountering an
increasingly unfavorable environment during the next few days, with
the ambient air mass becoming drier and vertical shear becoming
stronger. The official intensity forecast calls for continued
weakening and degeneration to a remnant low later in the forecast
period. This is similar to the consensus of the model guidance.
Based on fixes from the Hurricane Hunters, the center has moved a
little to the left of previous estimates, and the initial motion
estimate is 350/6 kt. There are no significant changes to the
track forecast philosophy, however. Over the next couple of days
Jerry should turn northeastward and then east-northeastward in the
flow to the south of a broad mid-latitude trough. Later in the
period, the weakening cyclone should move eastward to
east-southeastward on the northeast side of a subtropical
anticyclone. The official track forecast is close to the previous
one and in general agreement with the corrected multi-model
consensus guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by tonight or
early Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 30.8N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 31.7N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 32.6N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 33.5N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 34.2N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 35.0N 57.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z 34.5N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...JERRY WEAKENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 69.1W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 69.1 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.
Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few
days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...JERRY WEAKENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 69.1W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 69.1 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.
Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few
days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
AJC3
- Admin
- Posts: 3873
- Age: 60
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: West Melbourne, Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...JERRY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 69.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 69.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...JERRY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 69.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 69.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
Jerry no longer looks like either a tropical or a subtropical
cyclone, since it lacks deep convection within a couple of hundred
miles of the center. This is likely due to a combination of strong
shear and drier air. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on
SFMR-observed surface winds from earlier Hurricane Hunter
observations. Another Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to
investigate Jerry in a few hours, and given the lack of convection,
will likely find a weaker cyclone. The numerical guidance indicates
that strong shear and increasingly drier air will affect Jerry over
the next few days. Therefore, additional weakening is likely, and
the system will probably become a remnant low in 72 hours or less,
and completely dissipate by the end of the period. This is also
shown by the global models.
Jerry has moved quite slowly today, and the estimated initial
motion is just east of northward, or 010/5 kt. Jerry should pass
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge tonight. A broad
mid-latitude trough to the north of the cyclone should soon cause
the system to turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed. Later in the period, the cyclone should turn south of east
while moving around the northeastern periphery of a subtropical
ridge. The official track forecast is close to the previous one,
and leans toward the corrected consensus model guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by early
Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 31.1N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 31.9N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 32.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 33.7N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 34.4N 60.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 34.5N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1800Z 33.0N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
Jerry no longer looks like either a tropical or a subtropical
cyclone, since it lacks deep convection within a couple of hundred
miles of the center. This is likely due to a combination of strong
shear and drier air. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on
SFMR-observed surface winds from earlier Hurricane Hunter
observations. Another Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to
investigate Jerry in a few hours, and given the lack of convection,
will likely find a weaker cyclone. The numerical guidance indicates
that strong shear and increasingly drier air will affect Jerry over
the next few days. Therefore, additional weakening is likely, and
the system will probably become a remnant low in 72 hours or less,
and completely dissipate by the end of the period. This is also
shown by the global models.
Jerry has moved quite slowly today, and the estimated initial
motion is just east of northward, or 010/5 kt. Jerry should pass
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge tonight. A broad
mid-latitude trough to the north of the cyclone should soon cause
the system to turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed. Later in the period, the cyclone should turn south of east
while moving around the northeastern periphery of a subtropical
ridge. The official track forecast is close to the previous one,
and leans toward the corrected consensus model guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by early
Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 31.1N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 31.9N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 32.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 33.7N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 34.4N 60.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 34.5N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1800Z 33.0N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 68.9W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 68.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 68.9W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 68.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE WEAKER...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected
overnight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry
is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next day
or two.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
...AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE WEAKER...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected
overnight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry
is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next day
or two.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
Dry air and shear have continued to take a toll on Jerry, and the
cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours. An
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that has been in the storm this
evening measured peak flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR winds of
34 to 36 kt. The aircraft has not sampled the entire circulation
yet, so the initial intensity has been lowered, perhaps
conservatively, to 40 kt. Increasing shear and dry air that is
being entrained into the circulation from the west are likely to
continue to contribute to Jerry's gradual spin down over the next
couple of days. If deep convection does not return overnight, Jerry
could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as tomorrow morning.
Regardless of the status of the system, it still has the potential
to bring tropical-storm-force winds to Bermuda and advisories would
continue as long as the Tropical Storm Warning is needed for that
island. The global models completely dissipate Jerry in a little
more than 3 days, and so does the new NHC forecast.
Jerry has turned northeastward but continues to move very slowly, or
025/4 kt. The cyclone should pick up its pace tonight and Wednesday
as a broad trough passes to the north and the system gets caught
within the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. As Jerry
get increasingly weaker it is forecast to again slow down and turn
southeastward before dissipation occurs. The official track
forecast is not very different than the previous advisory, and is
closest to the TCVN multi-model consensus.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda beginning
on Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 31.4N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 32.2N 67.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 33.0N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 33.8N 62.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 34.4N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
Dry air and shear have continued to take a toll on Jerry, and the
cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours. An
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that has been in the storm this
evening measured peak flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR winds of
34 to 36 kt. The aircraft has not sampled the entire circulation
yet, so the initial intensity has been lowered, perhaps
conservatively, to 40 kt. Increasing shear and dry air that is
being entrained into the circulation from the west are likely to
continue to contribute to Jerry's gradual spin down over the next
couple of days. If deep convection does not return overnight, Jerry
could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as tomorrow morning.
Regardless of the status of the system, it still has the potential
to bring tropical-storm-force winds to Bermuda and advisories would
continue as long as the Tropical Storm Warning is needed for that
island. The global models completely dissipate Jerry in a little
more than 3 days, and so does the new NHC forecast.
Jerry has turned northeastward but continues to move very slowly, or
025/4 kt. The cyclone should pick up its pace tonight and Wednesday
as a broad trough passes to the north and the system gets caught
within the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. As Jerry
get increasingly weaker it is forecast to again slow down and turn
southeastward before dissipation occurs. The official track
forecast is not very different than the previous advisory, and is
closest to the TCVN multi-model consensus.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda beginning
on Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 31.4N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 32.2N 67.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 33.0N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 33.8N 62.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 34.4N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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AJC3
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- Age: 60
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: West Melbourne, Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JERRY IS MAINTAINING ITS WINDS
FOR NOW...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 68.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued
northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected
this morning, followed by a turn to the east-northeast by tonight.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda later today.
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days
and Jerry could become a post-tropical cyclone later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly to the east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda later
today.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JERRY IS MAINTAINING ITS WINDS
FOR NOW...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 68.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued
northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected
this morning, followed by a turn to the east-northeast by tonight.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda later today.
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days
and Jerry could become a post-tropical cyclone later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly to the east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda later
today.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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- Location: West Melbourne, Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: JERRY - Advisories
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
...JERRY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 67.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry
was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 67.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11
km/h). A continued northeasterly motion is expected through today,
followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later
today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this
afternoon and could continue through this evening.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall
across Bermuda through tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
...JERRY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 67.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry
was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 67.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11
km/h). A continued northeasterly motion is expected through today,
followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later
today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this
afternoon and could continue through this evening.
RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall
across Bermuda through tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
Jerry has lacked organized deep convection since around 1500 UTC
yesterday. It is therefore now designated as a post-tropical
cyclone. However, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for
Bermuda, and advisories will continue to be issued on Jerry until it
no longer poses any threat to the island.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continued to fly
through Jerry after the last advisory. The plane reported that
Jerry's wind field has become quite asymmetric, with no
tropical-storm-force winds in the western half of the cyclone. That
said, on its last pass through the southeast quadrant of the cyclone
the plane reported max flight level winds of 55 kt at 925 mb and
believable SFMR winds of 40 kt. The intensity of Jerry is therefore
maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. With no deep convection to
sustain it, the cyclone should gradually spin down during the next
few days. The dynamical models indicate that Jerry will dissipate in
about 4 days and the NHC forecast does as well.
A mid-latitude trough to the north has caused Jerry to turn
northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/6 kt. The
models are in good agreement that the post-tropical low will
continue generally northeastward today and tomorrow, steered by
low-level southwesterly flow. On this track, the cyclone will pass
very near Bermuda later today. The models are in excellent agreement
on the track of Jerry, and only small adjustments were made to the
previous NHC track forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today.
Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 31.8N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 25/1800Z 32.3N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 26/0600Z 33.0N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 26/1800Z 33.9N 61.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 34.6N 59.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z 34.0N 55.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
Jerry has lacked organized deep convection since around 1500 UTC
yesterday. It is therefore now designated as a post-tropical
cyclone. However, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for
Bermuda, and advisories will continue to be issued on Jerry until it
no longer poses any threat to the island.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continued to fly
through Jerry after the last advisory. The plane reported that
Jerry's wind field has become quite asymmetric, with no
tropical-storm-force winds in the western half of the cyclone. That
said, on its last pass through the southeast quadrant of the cyclone
the plane reported max flight level winds of 55 kt at 925 mb and
believable SFMR winds of 40 kt. The intensity of Jerry is therefore
maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. With no deep convection to
sustain it, the cyclone should gradually spin down during the next
few days. The dynamical models indicate that Jerry will dissipate in
about 4 days and the NHC forecast does as well.
A mid-latitude trough to the north has caused Jerry to turn
northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/6 kt. The
models are in good agreement that the post-tropical low will
continue generally northeastward today and tomorrow, steered by
low-level southwesterly flow. On this track, the cyclone will pass
very near Bermuda later today. The models are in excellent agreement
on the track of Jerry, and only small adjustments were made to the
previous NHC track forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today.
Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 31.8N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 25/1800Z 32.3N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 26/0600Z 33.0N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 26/1800Z 33.9N 61.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 34.6N 59.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z 34.0N 55.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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