ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Finally dead.

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Karen Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...KAREN DEGENERATES INTO A SURFACE TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 58.5W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[TheStormExpert]

Time to bring Bones out!

[Fishing]

Time to bring Bones out!

He’s been out and she’s been dead since 6 hours ago . Post 1034!


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[South Texas Storms]

Thanks for behaving Karen and not being a threat to land!

Wxman57 and I will enjoy a nice weekend off now

[LarryWx]

OK, when will the "she's coming back to life" posts start? I predict around Tuesday, when model consensus suggests increased thunderstorm activity with the remnants as they move westward to WSW.

[OuterBanker]

How interesting. Karen is still a rather well-formed naked swirl. What’s left of Jerry is trying to join her.
Will they marry and have a child? Are they too old to have children?
Will the child have her name, his name or a new name.
Stay tuned for as the storm turns.

[GCANE]

They did marry.
Evil looking cumulus starting to rise.

[GCANE]

Currently bone dry over Karen.
But, some mid-layer moisture is approaching from the NW and will soon be over her.
Could get a refire.

[GCANE]

MIMIC-TPW never looked better.
That marriage with Jerry did wonders for her LL-convergence.

[GCANE]

UL High to the SE.
A good long duration hot-tower and it could easily pull it over Karen.

[GCANE]

Mid-level Water Vapor
Feeder band already firing lightning with prejudice

[GCANE]

Debris from the convection north of the CoC will be covering the center shortly.
This may go quickly.

[CronkPSU]

why did it track so far east when all the models and NHC kept saying west thru the last few days?

[Nimbus]

Currently bone dry over Karen.
But, some mid-layer moisture is approaching from the NW and will soon be over her.
Could get a refire.

Depends on the pressure gradient, the convection in the southeast quadrant may slowly work its way back over the center of the spin but its a flat spin so the pressure at the center is likely the same 50 miles out. Waves develop when there is no shear but its less likely than the official forecast.

[LarryWx]

OK, when will the "she's coming back to life" posts start? I predict around Tuesday, when model consensus suggests increased thunderstorm activity with the remnants as they move westward to WSW.

Even though the remnant Karen (who incorporated Jerry) is universally expected by models to stay very weak thanks largely to strong shear that is progged in her path, her westward journey has begun and whatever is left of her (hardly anything) is still progged by some models to go all the way to FL. For example, the 18Z GFS has her scraping Daytona Beach at hour 138 before sharply recurving back offshore. This will be more of a curiosity than anything else. Knowing she’s harmless, Karen should be fun to track to see if she makes it to FL. This reminds me a little of the remnants of Fred making it all the way to the SE US coast after a very long journey as just a wave. Weak systems like this that few follow can be fascinating to me.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Have a strange feeling we need to keep an eye on her remnants

[GCANE]

Looks like she may interact with a wave Tuesday.
Possible could develop more on Wednesday north of PR.

[Frank2]

...or 10 o'clock next summer...

Thread needs to be locked - please...

[Emmett_Brown]

Karen's remnant low is donning some convection this morning. Still a lot of shear around, but not as much shear as last night.

[GCANE]

Looks like a tower went up right over the CoC with good ligthning.
Shear is much better today.