ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

When you look at the Recon wind barbs out there right now, you see winds well NE of the center out of the SSE, they should be around to the East or ENE

[StruThiO]

[StruThiO]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 998.9mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.7 2.7

[rbaker55]

https://imgur.com/STWAlaY

998 MB and t numbers 2.7? rather a large drop in pressure, if this is correct and that red square is the center, so goes the intensity forecast, this storm is trying to make everyone look foolish except Aric.

[Aric Dunn]

THe long curved bands developing from the center to the south are rather interesting..

[StAuggy]

THe long curved bands developing from the center to the south are rather interesting..


https://i.ibb.co/d5sxLvd/23348153-1.gif

Watching this loop it almost feels like the that e and stall/turn motion might be coming sooner than forecast. Looks like it might be heading more east than north currently

[northjaxpro]

Hmm. 998.9 mb MSLP . If that report is correct, that is the lowest I have seen yet with Karen. That is not indicative of a weakening cyclone at the current time if that report is correct. I will double check the pressure reading or get confirmation from others on here.

[StruThiO]

Looks to me like rumors of Karen's death may have been greatly exaggerated.

[Aric Dunn]

Hmm. 998.9 mb MSLP . If that report is correct, that is the lowest I have seen yet with Karen. That is not indicative of a weakening cyclone at the current time if that report is correct. I will double check the pressure reading or get confirmation from others on here.

well the bouy that is probably 50 miles or so from the center has 1006 mb. so that seems reasonable.

[aperson]

latest lower convergence plot shows that it finally is establishing some inflow



Compare to previous:

[AnnularCane]

Looks to me like rumors of Karen's death may have been greatly exaggerated.

https://imgur.com/oQPPTAK

Is that an eye?

Kidding! Kidding!

[Visioen]

Looks to me like rumors of Karen's death may have been greatly exaggerated.
https://imgur.com/oQPPTAK

Is that an eye?
Kidding! Kidding!

I am wondering what is causing it though… peculiar shape

[northjaxpro]

Apparently, that 998.9 mb pressure reading is correct. Karen is not weakening based on this fact alone. It is quite the contrary. Karen is once again dipping into her bag of tricks, deceiving quite a number of folks. Lol..

I guess some will keep on writing her off, but she keeps saying No, not yet LOL...

[LarryWx]

Apparently, that 998.9 mb pressure reading is correct. Karen is not weakening based on this fact alone. It is quite the contrary. Karen is once again dipping into her bag of tricks, deceiving quite a number of folks. Lol..

I guess some will keep on writing her off, but she keeps saying No, not yet LOL...

I'm taking take the middle road at this time. There's no reason to write her off nor is there a reason to worry about her. Just keep following real-time data as well as model trends.

[Ubuntwo]

Apparently, that 998.9 mb pressure reading is correct. Karen is not weakening based on this fact alone. It is quite the contrary. Karen is once again dipping into her bag of tricks deceiving quite a number of folks. Lol..

I guess some will keep on writing her off, butvshe keeps saying No, not yet LOL...

fwiw, that isn’t a pressure reading. Instead it’s a satellite estimate based on presentation. A buoy recorded 1006mb as the storm passed 30 miles to the south. Based on the recon pressure gradient this comes out to around 1004mb which is far more reasonable.

[Aric Dunn]

So the DVORAK estimate of the center was in fact correct..

[NDG]

We have twins in the Atlantic tonight, hard to tell which one is which, j/k

[LarryWx]

So the DVORAK estimate of the center was in fact correct..

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/ATL/12L.KAREN/windsat/color37/20190926.2208.coriolis.x.color37.12LKAREN.40kts-1005mb-269N-632W.088pc.jpg

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/ATL/12L.KAREN/windsat/37h/20190926.2208.coriolis.x.37h.12LKAREN.40kts-1005mb-269N-632W.088pc.jpg

This tells me that the center is likely pretty much on track.

[gatorcane]

That spot in the middle of Karen is a bit weird. Looks like an eye is forming but we know that can’t be...right?

[Aric Dunn]

So the DVORAK estimate of the center was in fact correct..

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/ATL/12L.KAREN/windsat/color37/20190926.2208.coriolis.x.color37.12LKAREN.40kts-1005mb-269N-632W.088pc.jpg

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/ATL/12L.KAREN/windsat/37h/20190926.2208.coriolis.x.37h.12LKAREN.40kts-1005mb-269N-632W.088pc.jpg

This tells me that the center is likely pretty much on track.

given the last recon fix the dvorak position and this.. along with the cloud motion.. it wont make it to 28n.. looks like it has already turned east.