ATL: KAREN - Models

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1176927218330722304

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like euro says goodbye to Karen and hello to Melissa near the Yucatan kinda like GFS. They almost look loosely connected from the same trough.

[rigbyrigz]

On this forecast "loop" would the intensity forecasts be expecting water cooling from upwell and adjust accordingly? Or too weak or insignificant?

[ScottNAtlanta]

The 12z GFS looks like long term it drives the remnants of Karen SW into the Caribbean and the reforms something and takes it through the YC and bombs it out...of course the caveat that it really far into the future.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92512&fh=6

[NDG]

Based on the latest 12z Euro ensembles, there is now less than 8% chance of Karen making it to the US as an organized system. Time to move along, lol.

[CreponChris]

Here is the guidance other than the European anyway right now for 18 Zulu. Just a funny thing I heard in a YouTube video last night...someone who believes that the government creates hurricanes by cloud-seeding thought that when Jim cantore on the Weather channel said that the weather guidance is doing so and so about the track and intensity for Dorian that that was an indicator of government control. Haha. Not trying to be "political', I take it nobody here believes that.



also, if I'm reading the verification correctly for this particular storm the GFS is doing a better job in terms of track predictions then the EPS. Is that the case? looks like for intensity the hwrf for long-term prediction anyway is one of the best if not the best right now.

[kevin]

12z GFS combines Karen's remnants with a new TC that even reaches sub-950 mbar values around 300 hours. Way too far out to make be of significant value at this point, but it's interesting since the 06z didn't show TC formation in the gulf at all. Guess it shows just how unpredictable long term forecasts are, especially in these conditions.

[SootyTern]

nice track in the Gulf. Very 2019!

[AnnularCane]

:uarrow: nice track in the Gulf. Very 2019!

That is an interesting scenario...so it probably won't happen.

[LarryWx]

I know that few are paying this much attention right now, but the 18Z GFS actually had a semi-interesting result fwiw, a legit LF of a very weak barely closed sfc low at Cape Canaveral at 192. It is a potentially dangerous track if it were to be strong.

[wx98]

I know that few are paying this much attention right now, but the 18Z GFS actually had a semi-interesting result fwiw, a legit LF of a very weak barely closed sfc low at Cape Canaveral at 192. It is a potentially dangerous track if it were to be strong.

Amazing how activity drops when a storm loses model support

[sma10]

I know that few are paying this much attention right now, but the 18Z GFS actually had a semi-interesting result fwiw, a legit LF of a very weak barely closed sfc low at Cape Canaveral at 192. It is a potentially dangerous track if it were to be strong.

Amazing how activity drops when a storm loses model support

And when you look like Karen currently looks ... not a positive combo

[Jr0d]

I know that few are paying this much attention right now, but the 18Z GFS actually had a semi-interesting result fwiw, a legit LF of a very weak barely closed sfc low at Cape Canaveral at 192. It is a potentially dangerous track if it were to be strong.

I have been looking at where the favorable 'pocket' has been tracking on the global models. Karen is not far off, there is a window it could very unlikely make. It does appear at least for now, a new system will form in Caribbean and it could find favorable conditions.

A lot can change, error 5 days out and predicting a loop is high. I don't think it is dead yet, it has battled unfavorable conditions all of its life.

[LarryWx]

And now for something different: 18Z EPS has virtually every member that has a TC of stronger than 1003 mb pretty much stalled well offshore the US at 144. Had this run gone out 10 days, it is quite possible it wouldn’t have shown even a single hit from a TC stronger than 1003! But we’ll never know.
What an unpredictable storm this has been to follow in model land! Never a dull moment with many different solutions from one run to the next.
So, any predictions on what 0Z models will show?

[Blown Away]

And now for something different: 18Z EPS has virtually every member that has a TC of stronger than 1003 mb pretty much stalled well offshore the US at 144. Had this run gone out 10 days, it is quite possible it wouldn’t have shown even a single hit from a TC stronger than 1003! But we’ll never know.
What an unpredictable storm this has been to follow in model land! Never a dull moment with many different solutions from one run to the next.


So, any predictions on what 0Z models will show?

Crazy model land storm for sure... The end is near!!!

[sma10]

And now for something different: 18Z EPS has virtually every member that has a TC of stronger than 1003 mb pretty much stalled well offshore the US at 144. Had this run gone out 10 days, it is quite possible it wouldn’t have shown even a single hit from a TC stronger than 1003! But we’ll never know.
What an unpredictable storm this has been to follow in model land! Never a dull moment with many different solutions from one run to the next.
So, any predictions on what 0Z models will show?

This was expected, no? Based on the 12z run I would think it was heading in that direction

[CreponChris]

12Z EPS
I don't remember the EPS 00/12Z going out 15 days - this is some kind of false memory hah!



What a track. G'night folks.

[Ken711]

[ErinLee1979]

12z GFS combines Karen's remnants with a new TC that even reaches sub-950 mbar values around 300 hours. Way too far out to make be of significant value at this point, but it's interesting since the 06z didn't show TC formation in the gulf at all. Guess it shows just how unpredictable long term forecasts are, especially in these conditions.

https://imgur.com/q3Vzz9A

wait. is that going west then back east or am i totally watching this wrong?

[aperson]

Glad to see the ensembles are finally starting to near the steady state trajectory for Karen as a Strange Attractor.