ATL: KAREN - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs here.

[BensonTCwatcher]

OK so 12 Z GFS seems to take this and pull it though the Mona passage at 120-ish hours and it gets pulled into Jerry's circulation and slingshots around leaving Jerry's vortex behind which remains closed and starts to move SW under a major 594 mb high across east CONUS.....Bet this thread lights up Sunday night if this starts to verify

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2019092012&fh=240

[northjaxpro]

OK so 12 Z GFS seems to take this and pull it though the Mona passage at 120-ish hours and it gets pulled into Jerry's circulation and slingshots around leaving Jerry's vortex behind which remains closed and starts to move SW under a major 594 mb high across east CONUS.....Bet this thread lights up Sunday night if this starts to verify

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2019092012&fh=240

EDIT: Actually just saw the 12Z GFS run and indeed Jerry actually gets left behind and gets grabbed by the ridge late in the period.

[SFLcane]

OK so 12 Z GFS seems to take this and pull it though the Mona passage at 120-ish hours and it gets pulled into Jerry's circulation and slingshots around leaving Jerry's vortex behind which remains closed and starts to move SW under a major 594 mb high across east CONUS.....Bet this thread lights up Sunday night if this starts to verify

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2019092012&fh=240

Na huge east coast trof waiting to capture it.

[cycloneye]

Euro for the first time has it better but dies south of PR. The rain is the main concern for the islands.

[CreponChris]

Meant to post these earlier (12 Zulu) but good thing I didn't an hour or two ago as the models have really filed in for 12Z since I last checked. Last time there were only about four of five! Consensus line has thus shifted dramatically (before it was plowing right into FL)



Here's a VMAX as well with all the same models. I know the EPS isn't here but as soon as it's visible I can get it.



Source if you'd like to view these on your own (great resource imho): http://www.hfip.org/nhc-display/#
And this one will show the EPS and EPS BUFR actually, too. The Google Maps API is a tad ugly but it's workable! https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

[CreponChris]

12Z EPS from a kind of wide angle also showing Jerry - and a poorly-edited one as well with a couple of other models thrown in. Not too important what they are as they're barely on there.

[CreponChris]

18Z Track and VMAX Guidance from the source 2 posts up.


What in the world is going on with the CONS? Maybe a poorly-configured algo'.

Recurving even harder than before.

[AnnularCane]

18Z Track and VMAX Guidance from the source 2 posts up.

https://i.imgur.com/gnJsBLi.png
What in the world is going on with the CONS? Maybe a poorly-configured algo'.

I'd love to see what kind of weird mechanisms would cause a track like that.

[MetroMike]

18Z Track and VMAX Guidance from the source 2 posts up.

https://i.imgur.com/gnJsBLi.png
What in the world is going on with the CONS? Maybe a poorly-configured algo'.

Recurving even harder than before.

https://i.imgur.com/PFcLDVo.png

As long as it doesn't want to do a circular loop anytime soon.

[somethingfunny]

I hope we don't get any sort of a Maria repeat out of this one.

[gatorcane]

Hmm looks like a different twist on track thinking from the 12Z GFS FV3 and legacy models with a turn to the west and SW once it is north of the Caribbean. The FV3 brings it back down into the Northern Caribbean heading towards Cuba.

[gatorcane]

Heading WNW entering GOM at 270 hours with a building upper anticyclone:

[sma10]

Hmm looks like a different twist on track thinking from the 12Z GFS FV3 and legacy models with a turn to the west and SW once it is north of the Caribbean. The FV3 brings it back down into the Northern Caribbean heading towards Cuba.

https://i.postimg.cc/Jh0R5Gx6/gfs-legacy-z850-vort-watl-29.png

https://i.postimg.cc/q7wCzhR1/gfs-z850-vort-watl-41.png

Yeah seems like a subtle shift to the models this morning. Instead of quickly sweeping 99L in Jerry's footsteps, looks like it's being left behind

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC also changes its track with a turn west east of the Bahamas. It’s not a storm but you can track the 850mb vorticity turning west with a big 500MB high building over the EC:

[floridasun78]

wx want see ECMWF show he say gfs no good

[Craters]

12Z CMC also changes its track with a turn west east of the Bahamas. It’s not a storm but you can track the 850mb vorticity turning west with a big 500MB high building over the EC:

https://i.postimg.cc/wvZxvLK8/gem-z850-vort-watl-28.png

Maybe the direction change the CONS was trying to show wasn't that weird after all, then? The acceleration to Mach 3 or whatever from 168 to 192 hrs seems to be a little high to me, though...

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS legacy dives the vorticity SW towards Cuba:

[GeneratorPower]

12Z GFS legacy dives the vorticity SW towards Cuba:

https://i.postimg.cc/bdX5V0MT/gfs-legacy-z850-vort-watl-34.png

New GFS also showing the same idea. That energy gets driven SW around what is apparently a ridge

[cycloneye]

12z Euro has it just south pf PR.