ATL: KAREN - Advisories

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN NOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with some increase in forward speed is forecast
tonight, with this motion continuing through Wednesday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and
then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. During the past few hours,
wind gusts of tropical-storm force have been reported in portions
of the Virgin Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

The satellite appearance of Karen has improved over the past
several hours, with a large convective band wrapped about halfway
around the center in the western semicircle and an outer band in
the southeastern semicircle. However, surface observations,
Doppler radar data, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the low-level circulation is elongated
from south to north and that multiple vorticity centers are present.
The lowest pressures and the strongest winds are at the southern
end of the elongation near the eastern end of the convective band,
and this is the center used for this advisory. The Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reported 53 kt flight-level winds at 850 mb and data
suggesting a central pressure near 1005 mb, so the initial intensity
is increased to 40 kt.

The initial motion is again 360/7, with some uncertainty due to the
multiple vorticity centers and an apparent re-formation of the
center closer to the convection between 15Z-18Z. Karen remains in a
complex steering environment that includes a low- to mid-level ridge
to the east and northeast, Tropical Storm Jerry to the north-
northwest, and a large mid- to upper-level trough extending from
near Jerry to eastern Cuba. These weather systems should steer
Karen generally north-northeastward for the next couple of days.
This motion should bring the center of Karen near or over Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and then into
the open Atlantic tonight. During the 72-120 h period, the
large-scale models forecast a low- to mid-level ridge to build near
Karen, which will significantly slow its forward motion. The track
guidance is in somewhat better agreement that this ridge will cause
Karen to turn westward near the end of the forecast period,
although there remains a lot of uncertainty about when and how
fast. The new forecast track keeps Karen a little farther south
before this turn occurs, and thus the 120-h position is a little to
the south of the previous forecast.

Karen is moving into an area of weaker shear, and should remain in
that environment for the next 2-3 days. Thus, strengthening is
expected, with the main limiting factor being the current poor
organization of the circulation. From 72-120 h, the storm is
expected to start entraining dry air, which could limit
intensification despite the otherwise favorable shear and sea
surface temperature environment. In addition, several of the
global models suggest that another round of shear could affect
Karen near the 120 h point. If this occurs, the cyclone could end
up weaker than forecast in this advisory. The new intensity
forecast has minor changes from the previous forecast, and it again
lies between the weaker dynamical models and the stronger
statistical-dynamical models.


Key Messages:

1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and
mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall
and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 18.0N 65.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 19.6N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 21.9N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 24.2N 64.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 25.9N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 27.2N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 27.0N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 26.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF KAREN MOVED OVER VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...
...HEAVY SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM N OF CULEBRA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 045 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Surface observations indicate that the broad circulation center of
Karen moved near or over the islands of Vieques and Culebra during
the past hour or so. At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of
Tropical Storm Karen was estimated near latitude 18.5 North,
longitude 65.3 West. Karen has been moving toward the northeast
near 10 mph (16 km/h). However, Karen should move toward the
north-northeast with some increase in forward speed tonight, with
this motion continuing through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Karen will move away from Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands during the next few hours, but the strong squalls
which are to the south of the center will continue to affect that
area through tonight. Karen should move over the western Atlantic
later tonight and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds area confined mostly to the southeast of the
center. Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. St. Thomas has recently
reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h)

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations
and data from a reconnaissance plane is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 65.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
estimated near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 65.0 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen
should continue to move toward the north-northeast through Wednesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move away
from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours,
but the strong squalls which are to the south of the center will
continue to affect that area through tonight. Karen should move over
the western Atlantic later tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure was 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain. This winds should gradually decrease on Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

During the afternoon and early evening hours, satellite images
indicated that the cloud pattern associated with Karen was
becoming a little better organized. Then, surface observations from
the area just east of Puerto Rico indicated that the pressures
were falling, and a center was apparently becoming better defined.
The presence of this center was confirmed by a reconnaissance
plane which was able to fix a tight small circulation of about 1002
or 1003 mb. This, by no means, indicates that the overall
circulation of the cyclone is well organized. Winds are still swirly
on the western portion of the circulation and are responding to an
elongated trough of low pressure north of Puerto Rico. In fact, I
would not be surprised if another center reforms father to west
within the trough or the large cyclonic envelope, and the center we
are tracking dissipates. In any case, preliminary analysis indicates
that the center of Karen that we were tracking moved very near or
over Vieques around 2100 UTC and then over Culebra a little bit
later. This small center could also have been a meso-vortex within
the larger circulation.

Data from the reconnaissance plane and satellite intensity estimates
yield an initial intensity of 40 kt. These winds are occurring
primarily to the southeast of the center. Karen is heading toward a
shear environment that is not ideal at all for significant
intensification. As previously indicated, the NHC forecast calls for
a very modest increase in intensity during the next 3 to 5 days as
indicated by the HCCA model. However, some of the statistical
guidance brings Karen to hurricane status by the end of the
forecast period.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Karen is moving
toward the north-northeast or 015 degrees at 12 kt. This motion
however, is highly uncertain because it includes the reformation of
the center. The circulation of Karen is trapped between a
subtropical high over the Atlantic and a mid-level trough over the
Bahamas. This flow pattern will continue to steer Karen in this same
generaldirection for the next 3 days. After that time, the steering
flow is forecast to collapse, and Karen, if it is still a cyclone,
will begin to meander. This would allow another ridge to develop
north of the cyclone and force it to move westward. This is the
solution provided by most of the global models.


Key Messages:

1. Karen will continue to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and
mudslides to Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands into Wednesday even as the center moves away from the
region.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 19.1N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 20.8N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 23.2N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 26.8N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 26.5N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 26.0N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 65.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located by the NOAA San Juan Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 65.1
West. Karen is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen
is expected to move toward the north today, followed by a motion
toward the north-northeast tonight through Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther
away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. However, strong
squalls located to the south and southeast of the center will
continue to affect those areas early this morning before subsiding
by late morning.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the southeast of the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (67 km/h)
was recently reported at a couple of locations on St. Thomas.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)
based on information from the reconnaissance aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through today:

Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, will
continue across the warning area this morning. Winds could be
higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in
elevated terrain. This winds should gradually decrease later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ALL
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 65.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of
Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for
the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.2 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the
north-northeast is forecast to occur by this afternoon and continue
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will
continue to move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands today through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have
already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Karen's convection has increased significantly and become better
organized since the previous advisory. The well-defined low-level
circulation center that previously had been fully exposed now has
intense convection with cloud tops of -85C to -90C almost completely
encircling the center at times. During the last leg of an earlier
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, an 850-mb flight-level
wind of 46 kt and SFMR surface winds of 37 kt were observed in the
southeastern quadrant, suggesting that Karen may have weakened
slightly during an earlier convective hiatus. However, the recent
increase in deep convection over the center, along with a pronounced
increase in the Doppler velocities and the development of a smaller
radius of maximum winds of less than 10 nmi above 20,000 ft, suggest
that Karen has likely strengthened. For now, however, the intensity
is being maintained at 40 kt. The secondary mid-level circulation
that had developed north of Puerto Rico several hours ago has since
weakened based on San Juan Doppler radar data and satellite images.

Now that deep convection has redeveloped, resulting in a stronger
and deeper the vortex column, the motion has steadied off in a
northerly direction of 360/12 kt over the past 6 hours. A northward
motion is forecast to continue this morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast by this afternoon. A north-northeastward
to northeastward motion accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected in the 12-48 hour period. By 72 hours, steering
currents are forecast to collapse and Karen is expected to stall or
make a clockwise loop. By 96 and beyond, the global models forecast
that a ridge will build eastward from the southeastern United States
to Bermuda, forcing Karen in a slow westward to west-southwestward
direction. The new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the simple consensus track model
TVCN, which is about midway between the corrected-consensus models
FSSE located to the north and NOAA-HCCA to the south.

The intensity forecast remains somewhat perplexing with the
dynamical global and regional models showing no strengthening for
the next 4 days, followed by weakening and even dissipation by day
5, whereas the GFS- and ECMWF-based statistical-dynamical models
show slow but steady strengthening during the forecast period with
Karen becoming a hurricane by 120 hours. The main reasons for global
models weakening the cyclone is due to the low- and upper-level
circulations decoupling in about 3 days, followed by very dry
mid-level overspreading of the low-level circulation, shutting
off convective development. The problem with that scenario is that
Karen will be moving into very low vertical shear conditions and
underneath an upper-level anticyclone by 36 hours, which favors
strengthening since the cyclone will also be sitting over 29 deg C
water of considerable depth. For now, the new official intensity
forecast remains a compromise between the weak dynamical model
solutions and the stronger SHIPS intensity forecasts, which is a
little above the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

Key Messages:

1. Karen will continue to produce rainfall causing flash floods and
mudslides across Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the region.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 20.5N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 22.3N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 24.5N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 27.1N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 26.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 25.9N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 64.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 64.9 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). A north-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through early Friday. Karen is then expected to
slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic
into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have
already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Karen is still having a tough time establishing and maintaining a
well-organized structure. The deep convection which developed over
the center earlier this morning has since collapsed, leaving a
ragged and disorganized cloud pattern. In addition, a sizable
outflow boundary moving away from the eastern part of the
circulation suggests that there is dry air within the vortex. The
initial intensity is being held at 40 kt, pending possible
scatterometer data later this morning and a reconnaissance flight
this afternoon.

The initial position is a little difficult to locate, but the best
estimate of the current motion is 360/13 kt. Karen is moving
northward between a mid-level high centered over the central
Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low located just east of the
Bahamas. This low is expected to slowly retrograde westward, with
ridging developing over the western Atlantic by day 3. This change
in steering will cause Karen to turn northeastward during the next
48 hours but then make a clockwise loop once it is blocked by the
ridge. After day 3, the ridge should force Karen to move
west-southwestward. Most of the track models agree on this general
scenario. There is some latitudinal spread on days 4 and 5 after
the loop occurs, with the HWRF being the most notable outlier by
not showing much of a westward motion. The consensus aids,
however, have remained fairly steady, and therefore there was no
compelling reason to make any significant changes compared to the
previous track forecast.

Except for the possibility of dry air in the circulation, it's not
quite evident why Karen has not been able to sustain organization.
Still, the cyclone is expected to move beneath an upper-level
anticyclone during the next 24-48 hours, and if the shear does
indeed decrease, then some strengthening would be expected. There
continues to be a dichotomy among the intensity models, with the
dynamical models (including the GFS and ECMWF) keeping the cyclone
weak while the statistical-dynamical models still show
intensification through days 4 and 5. It's difficult to ignore
what's being shown by the global models, since there must be
something in the environment that they're deeming to be negative
for continued strengthening. The best course of action at this
point is to maintain a steady intensity after 48 hours, but it
should be noted that what is shown in the official forecast still
lies above the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA corrected
consensus aid.

Key Messages:

1. Karen will continue to produce heavy rainfall, potentially
causing additional flash floods and mudslides, across Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the
region.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 21.7N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 23.4N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 25.4N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 26.9N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 27.5N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 26.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 26.0N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 25.5N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KAREN WEAKER...
...CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 64.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 64.3 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A north-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through early Friday. Karen is then expected to
slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic
into the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next
few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have
already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Karen
found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR-measured
winds of 34 kt. Although those surface winds were coincident with
some heavy rains, which makes them questionable, it is assumed that
there are still some tropical-storm-force winds somewhere within
the circulation. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt.

Karen has turned toward the north-northeast with an initial motion
of 015/12 kt. The cyclone is positioned between a mid-level high
centered over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low
spinning just east of the Bahamas. The steering flow between these
two features should keep Karen on a generally northeastward
trajectory during the next 48 hours. Around that time, a blocking
ridge is expected to build to the north of Karen, causing it to make
a clockwise loop and move west-southwestward by days 4 and 5.
Compared to the previous cycle, the track models are allowing Karen
to get farther to the northeast before it makes its loop, which ends
up slowing down the 4- and 5-day NHC forecast points. Even with
that change, however, the forecast path of Karen is relatively
unchanged from before.

It's probably time to put more weight on the dynamical models for
Karen's future intensity. The cyclone has continued to struggle
in its environment, which is essentially what those models have been
indicating all along. Even the statistical-dynamical models, which
are explicitly showing strengthening, indicate that the environment
won't be very favorable, with convergence aloft and a dry mid-level
air mass. Because of those factors, and the lower initial
intensity, the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered considerably
from this morning's forecast. It still allows for the possibility
of some strengthening, but if model trends continue, the official
forecast could be lowered further in subsequent advisories. And if
the global models are correct, Karen could even lose deep
convection, and hence become post-tropical, in about 3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 22.9N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 24.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 27.6N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 27.9N 60.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 27.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 63.6W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 63.6 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A north-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through early Friday. Karen or its remnants are
then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the
southwestern Atlantic into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches tonight across the Virgin
Islands, with isolated storm totals of 5 inches. These rains may
cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Karen's cloud pattern is basically shapeless and consists of a
tight swirl of low clouds located at the northern end of a
curved-convective band. Dvorak T-numbers barely support 35 kt, but
it is assumed that a few spots of tropical storm-force-wind are
still occuring in the southeast quadrant.

Karen has had enough time to strengthen, and it is doubtful that it
will do it in the future. The cyclone is heading toward an
unfavorable environment and each consecutive run of the global
models show a weaker and weaker cyclone. My predecessor wisely
stated in the advisory "it is time to put more weight in the global
models" and I will do so in this one. On this basis, the NHC
forecast no longer calls for strengthening, and maintains Karen
generously with 35 kt for the next 2 days or so. It also calls for
weakening thereafter. Karen is forecast to be a remnant low in
about 4 days, but is very likely that this could occur much sooner.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north-
northeast or 015 degrees at 13 kt. The cyclone is being steered by
the flow between a mid-level trough over the Bahamas and a
subtropical ridge to the east. In two days, the steering flow is
expected to collapse, and Karen will likely meander for a day or so.
A ridge will then build to the north, and since Karen will be weak
and shallow, the cyclone or its remnants will move westward, steered
by the trade winds south of the ridge and toward very hostile
upper-level winds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 24.4N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 26.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 27.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 28.3N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 27.5N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 26.6N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z 26.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 63.5 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A
northeastward to eastward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through Friday. Karen, or its remnants, are
then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the
southwestern Atlantic into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Karen is barely a tropical storm. A pair of ASCAT passes from
several hours ago showed maximum winds between 30 and 35 kt in the
southeastern quadrant of the storm. Those passes also indicate
that the circulation is quite broad and weak on the west side.
Based on the ASCAT data and the TAFB Dvorak classification, the
initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. The storm appears quite
disheveled in satellite images, with an elongated east to west
convective pattern and a lack of well-defined banding features.

Karen has not been able to take advantage of the relatively
favorable environment that it has been in during the past day or
so, which was well anticipated by the dynamical models, but
poorly forecast by the statistical-dynamical aids. The storm will
remain in generally favorable conditions through tonight, so it
should be able to maintain its intensity or perhaps strengthen
slightly during that time. After that, however, the models show a
steady increase in shear and drier air in the vicinity of the
cyclone. These conditions should cause weakening and will likely
lead to the system either losing its deep convection and becoming a
remnant low or dissipating entirely in 3 or 4 days when it moves
into a region of strong westerly shear. The NHC intensity forecast
is the same as the previous one and leans more on the GFS and ECMWF
guidance.

The tropical storm is still moving north-northeastward at 13 kt
steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a mid-
to upper-level low to its west over the Bahamas. The low is
expected to weaken and lift out during the next few days allowing a
low- to mid-level ridge to strengthen and build to the north of
Karen. This change in the steering flow should cause Karen, or its
remnants, to move slower to the northeast and east through Friday,
followed by a motion to the west-southwest this weekend. Only minor
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one
lies closest to the HCCA model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 25.5N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 27.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 28.0N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 27.9N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 27.0N 65.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z 26.8N 67.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 63.3W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 63.3 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
through this evening. Karen is then forecast to make a slow
clockwise loop, ultimately moving westward by early Sunday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast
by the weekend, and Karen is expected to become a remnant low by
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Karen has been maintaining a cluster of convection to the west of
its center, but visible satellite images and wind data from NOAA
buoy 40149 to the northeast suggest that the low-level circulation
is becoming elongated. This structure has been confirmed by a
late-arriving ASCAT pass, and that data also show that Karen is
producing winds to 40 kt within the deep convection.

Karen is embedded in the flow between a mid-level high centered over
the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low which is slowly
retrograding westward over the Bahamas. This is maintaining a
north-northeastward motion of 015/12 kt. The central Atlantic high
is expected to weaken over the next 2 days, while a new high
develops over the western Atlantic, causing Karen to make a
clockwise loop well to the southeast of Bermuda. Once the western
Atlantic high becomes established, Karen is then expected to move
generally westward on days 3 through 5. There have been no
significant changes among the track models, and the new NHC track
forecast is therefore very similar to the previous one.

Relatively light winds aloft and warm ocean waters could allow
Karen to maintain its intensity for another day or two. After that
time, however, an increase in northerly shear will likely allow
ambient dry air to infiltrate into the circulation further. The
dynamical models--which we're now heavily favoring in our
forecasts--are showing gradual weakening and even a loss of
organized deep convection in a few days. Therefore, Karen is now
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 3. The low is
expected to plow into strong southwesterly shear on days 4 and 5
while it moves westward over the southwestern Atlantic, which should
keep it as a remnant low or possibly cause it to open up into a
trough of low pressure.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 26.6N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 27.6N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 28.1N 61.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 28.0N 60.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 27.8N 60.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 27.3N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 27.1N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z 27.0N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...KAREN'S WIND FIELD BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 62.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 62.9 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm
is expected to turn eastward and become nearly stationary by Friday
night, and then begin moving westward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Karen is
expected to become a remnant low by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Data from aircraft reconnaissance, ASCAT, and NOAA buoy 41049
indicate that Karen's circulation is becoming increasingly
elongated. A combination of data from these platforms also
supports maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt for now. The
deterioration of Karen's structure suggests that weakening is
imminent, especially with an expected increase in northerly shear
during the next day or so. The GFS and ECMWF models--via their
simulated infrared satellite fields--are unanimous in showing Karen
losing its organized deep convection in about 36 hours. Based on
that, the new NHC forecast depicts Karen as becoming a remnant low
in 48 hours. Due to a significant increase in southwesterly shear
by day 4, the system is expected to open up into a surface trough by
day 5.

Fixes suggest that Karen is slowing down a bit and turning to the
right, with an initial motion of 025/10 kt. The steering flow will
be evolving over the next couple of days with high pressure
building to the north of Karen over the western Atlantic. This
will cause the cyclone to almost come to a stop in about 36 hours,
and then turn to the west by 48 hours until dissipation on day 5.
This is the same forecast reasoning as before, and the new NHC
forecast is just an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 27.2N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 28.2N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 28.1N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 28.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 27.9N 63.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 27.9N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...KAREN FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 62.1W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 62.1 West. Karen is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), but is expected to
become nearly stationary by Friday night or early Saturday. It
should then begin to move westward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karen is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

The center of the circulation of Karen moved near or over the NOAA
buoy 41049 where a wind shift and a very modest drop in pressure
occurred. Currently, the winds are decreasing and pressures are
rising at the buoy. The data from the buoy and recent satellite
imagery continue to indicate that the circulation remains elongated
with the low-level center located on the eastern edge of a
convective mass. However, some curved rainbands are developing on
the eastern portion of the circulation as we speak. T-numbers from
SAB and TAFB are 2.5 on the Dvorak scale and support a generous
initial intensity of 35 kt. A very recent partial ASCAT pass
measured winds of only 30 kt, but the swath did not cover the area
where the plane measured stronger winds earlier today.

In about a day, the upper-level environment will become increasingly
hostile with the development of northwesterly shear, and thereafter,
the shear will become even stronger from the southwest. With this
anticipated upper-level wind pattern, Karen should weaken and
become devoid of deep convection in 36 hours or so and degenerate
into a remnant low.

Karen has slowed down and is now moving toward the northeast or 055
degrees at 7 kt. The steering flow is forecast to change in 24 hours
as a ridge builds to the north of Karen, and the cyclone, or most
likely its remnants, should begin to move slowly westward. The
system is anticipated to degenerate into a westward moving trough in
3 days or so as forecast by global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 27.8N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 28.3N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 28.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 28.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0000Z 28.3N 61.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 28.0N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...KAREN HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR NOW...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 61.2W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Karen is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is forecast to continue this morning, but Karen is forecast
to become nearly stationary by tonight or early Saturday. A
westward motion is then anticipated by the end of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Karen is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Karen's status as a tropical cyclone is becoming increasingly
dubious. In a trio of ASCAT passes that arrived yesterday evening,
the circulation of the cyclone was indistinguishable from a surface
boundary that extends south from the remnants of post-tropical
cyclone Jerry. This suggests that Karen's circulation may no longer
be well-defined. Furthermore, deep convection near the center of
Karen has generally decreased and become less organized since last
night. Satellite-based intensity estimates support maintaining the
intensity of Karen at 35 kt, but this could be generous given that
the max winds observed in the earlier ASCAT data were lower.

Regardless of the exact starting intensity of the cyclone, gradual
weakening is expected for the next few days. There is unanimous
agreement among the dynamical models on this scenario. Simulated
satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models show the cyclone
devoid of deep convection within 36 hours, if not sooner.
Increasingly hostile upper-level winds should then prevent the
cyclone from reorganizing and it is forecast to dissipate in about
four days.

It has been difficult to locate the center of Karen overnight and
the initial motion estimate is uncertain but also unchanged
(055/7 kt). The global models are forecasting that Karen will
continue to move on this general heading through this morning before
it stalls tonight. A building ridge to the north should cause Karen
or its remnants to start moving westward over the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 28.3N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 28.8N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 29.1N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 29.3N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 29.3N 61.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z 29.0N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...KAREN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY
TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 59.6W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 59.6 West. Karen is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this evening. Karen
should then stall overnight and begin moving westward on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Karen is
expected to either become a remnant low or open up into a trough of
low pressure by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Karen's associated convection is becoming increasingly
disorganized, and as has been stated in previous advisories, the
circulation is elongated and attached to a surface trough that
extends northward toward Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry. A partial
ASCAT pass only showed winds around 25 kt in the southern part of
the circulation, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered,
probably still generously, to 30 kt.

Karen has moved out from beneath an upper-level anticyclone and is
now feeling the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear. The
shear is expected to increase further during the next few days and
also become more southwesterly, which is likely to lead to
weakening and further loss of organization. Based on the latest
global model guidance, Karen is now forecast to lose organized deep
convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours and then
open up into a trough by day 3. Given the cyclone's current
structure, however, it's entirely possible that either of these
options could occur as soon as later today.

The initial motion is east-northeastward, or 065/7 kt. As it
becomes an increasingly shallower system, Karen should stop its
eastward motion within the next 12-24 hours and then turn westward
on the southern side of a low-level ridge developing over the
western Atlantic. This forecast scenario remains consistent with
the reasoning from previous NHC advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 28.8N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 29.0N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 28/1200Z 29.1N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 60.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 29.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Karen Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...KAREN DEGENERATES INTO A SURFACE TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 58.5W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Karen were located near
latitude 29.3 North, longitude 58.5 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) but should stall and then
begin moving westward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Winds associated with the remnants are expected to
gradually decrease during the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg




Remnants Of Karen Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Scatterometer data from a few hours ago indicated that Karen's
circulation has opened up into a surface trough of low pressure.
In addition, the associated convection has continued to lose
organization. Therefore, the system is no longer a tropical
cyclone, and this will be the final advisory. Maximum winds, based
on the ASCAT pass, remain near 30 kt.

Although an area of low pressure may persist for a few more days,
the circulation should remain poorly organized, and the remnants
are not expected to produce any significant convection. The
surface trough is expected to move little during the next 24 hours,
but it should then begin moving westward by 48 hours as high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 29.3N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg