ATL: KAREN - Advisories

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 60.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Trinidad and Tobago. The Trinidad and Tobago
Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other
portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely
be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Karen.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Storm
Karen was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.2 West.
Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward
the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn
toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move
across the Windward Islands this afternoon and tonight, and emerge
over the southeastern Caribbean Sea Monday morning. On Tuesday,
Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. Barbados recently reported a sustained wind of
37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those
islands within the warning area later this morning and afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Scatterometer surface wind data and observations from the Windward
Islands indicate that the low pressure system just east of Tobago
has become better defined. Infrared and microwave satellite imagery
also show that deep convection has increased and has become better
organized around the center. Barbados recently reported a 10-minute
wind of 32 kt gusting to 39 kt, and the earlier scatterometer data
showed a large field of 30-32 kt winds in the eastern semicircle.
Based on these data, the low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Karen. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the southern
Windward Islands as a result.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/10 kt. The latest
NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on Karen moving
northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
ridge for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a turn toward the north
into a break in the ridge currently located over the northern
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. In the 72-96 hour period, Karen is
forecast to slow down and possibly even stall and turn westward on
day 5 as another large ridge moves eastward across the southeastern
United States and builds to the north of the cyclone. The official
track forecast lies close to the tightly packed consensus track
models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and TVCX.

Little, if any, change in intensity is expected for the next 48
hours due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, the
upper-level flow is expected to be difluent, which should help Karen
maintain its current intensity despite the otherwise unfavorable
shear conditions. By 72 hours and beyond, Karen is forecast to move
underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which should result in a
significant decrease in the shear and also enhance the upper-level
outflow, allowing for some strengthening to occur. The NHC intensity
forecast closely follows a blend of the the intensity consensus
models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS model.

A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands later today, and Tropical Storm Warnings may be
issued for other areas in the Windward Islands later this morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 11.9N 60.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 13.4N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 14.7N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 19.9N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 23.4N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 25.6N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN PASSING JUST NORTH OF TOBAGO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 60.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other
portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely
be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Karen.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.9 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move across
the Windward Islands today, and emerge over the southeastern
Caribbean Sea tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those
islands within the warning area this morning and afternoon, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...KAREN BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GRENADA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move away from the Windward Islands later today, and then
across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday,
Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
primarily in squalls to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Radar and satellite imagery shows that convection associated with
Karen has lost some organization since advisories were initiated
early this morning. However, surface observations and a very
recently arriving ASCAT data show that the circulation is
well-defined, and is currently passing through the southern Windward
Islands. Given the current sprawling structure, nearby dry
mid-level air, and moderate northwesterly shear, no significant
strengthening is expected through 48 hours. In fact, the system may
have trouble surviving over the eastern Caribbean Sea as the global
models predict an increase in northeasterly upper-level winds over
the system on Monday. Once the cyclone moves north of Puerto Rico,
the shear is forecast to decrease, and some strengthening is
indicated in the official forecast, but this will depend on the
structure of the system at that time. At this time, the long range
intensity forecast is quite uncertain.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. The track guidance is in
good agreement on Karen turning northwestward, and then northward
around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge during the
next day or two. A northward motion should continue into mid-week
as a weakness in the ridge remains over the western Atlantic.
After that time, models suggest that another ridge will begin to
build over the southeastern U.S. and far western Atlantic which may
cause Karen to slow down by the end of the forecast period. The
updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory
and lies near the consensus models.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands.

Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to
affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight.

2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has
been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding is possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 12.5N 61.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.1N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.2N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.4N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.7N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 23.4N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 25.3N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
200 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...GUSTY WINDS AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 62.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM N OF GRENADA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 62.3 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move away from the Windward Islands later today, and then
across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday,
Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
primarily in squalls to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 62.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF GRENADA
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 62.7 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight or on
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move away from
the Windward Islands this evening, and then move across the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

The convective structure of Karen has continued to lose organization
this afternoon, with the center becoming exposed to the north and
northwest of the primary convective band. An Air Force
Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the storm has found a
well-defined circulation, and flight-level and SFMR winds to
support an intensity of around 30 kt. The plane, however, has
not fully sampled the storm so the initial intensity remains
35 kt which is between the wind speeds indicated in earlier ASCAT
data and the recent in situ observations.

The upper-level environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain
unfavorable with the global models and SHIPS guidance predicting an
increase in northeasterly shear by Monday. This is expected to
prevent the storm from strengthening, and Karen may even have
trouble maintaining tropical cyclone status while it moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea. After the system moves north of Puerto Rico
around midweek, it is forecast to reach more favorable upper-level
conditions, and the NHC intensity forecast again calls for
strengthening later in the forecast period. The new intensity
forecast, however, is slightly more conservative than the previous
one at days 3-5, and is a little above the latest intensity
consensus (IVCN) model).

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. The
track forecast philosophy is unchanged from earlier today. Karen
should turn northwestward, and then northward during the next day or
so as it begins to respond to a weakness in the subtropical ridge
over the western Atlantic. This motion should bring the center of
Karen over Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. By late in
the forecast period, the dynamical models build a strong
deep-layer ridge over the southeast United States that extends
northeastward over the western Atlantic. This pattern is likely to
cause Karen to slow its northward progression by days 4 and 5. The
track guidance remains in very good agreement, and only slight
adjustments to the previous official forecast were required.

Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to
affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight.

2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has
been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding is possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.9N 62.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.7N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.9N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.3N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 21.5N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 24.3N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 26.0N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...POORLY ORGANIZED KAREN MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 63.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF GRENADA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 63.0 West. Karen is
moving generally toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight or on
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move away from
the Windward Islands this evening, and then move across the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east of the center. The International Airport on
Grenada recently reported sustained winds of 30 mph (48 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...KAREN MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 63.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WNW OF GRENADA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen. Additional warnings and watches may be required
for portions of these areas on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 63.5 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed
by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight
through Monday night. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or
over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Barbados...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch, storm totals 2 to 3
inches.

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 8
inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeast Venezuela...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Karen remains poorly organized this evening, with the low-level
center exposed to the north of the main convective mass due to the
effects of 15-20 kt of northeasterly vertical shear. The initial
intensity will be held at 35 kt based on earlier Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data that included maximum 1500 ft flight-level
winds of 42 kt and SFMR surface wind estimates near 35 kt.

The initial motion is 295/10. The track guidance is in excellent
agreement that Karen should turn northwestward during the next 6-12
h in response to a break in a ridge to the north of the storm,
followed by a northward motion that would take the center near
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands into the Atlantic between 36-48
h. Late in the forecast period, the steering currents are expected
to weaken as a strong deep-layer ridge builds eastward from the
United States into the western Atlantic. This should cause Karen
to slow its forward motion. The new forecast track is little
changed from the previous track and is near the center of the
guidance envelope and the various consensus models.

The upper-level winds are currently not favorable for significant
development, and the current shear might get stronger during the
next 12-24 h. Thus, little change in strength is forecast while
Karen crosses the eastern Caribbean, and the system may have trouble
maintaining tropical cyclone status. The environment becomes more
favorable for development from 48 h on, and the intensity forecast
calls for slow strengthening during this time. The new intensity
forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecasts.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the southern
Windward Islands through tonight.

2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in
effect. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding are possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 13.1N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.9N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.3N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 18.7N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 22.4N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 25.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 26.0N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
200 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 63.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen. Additional warnings and watches may be required
for portions of these areas on later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 63.6 West. Karen is now
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is
expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On
Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Barbados...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch, storm totals 2 to 3
inches.

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 8
inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeast Venezuela...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...DISORGANIZED KAREN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 63.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 63.9 West. Karen is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is
expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On
Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48
hours due to strong upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly northeast through southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected
in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 8
inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Karen's convective pattern has become quite disheveled looking this
morning due to 20-25 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. a
narrow band of deep convection has recently reformed in the
southeastern quadrant, but proximity to dry air has been hindering
development and organization of that convection. The initial
intensity has been held at 35 kt until the next reconnaissance
flight later this morning provides new information on the strength
of the cyclone. However, I would not be surprised if Karen has
weakened to a tropical depression based on the lack of significant
convection.

The initial motion is now 320/07 kt. The track guidance remains in
excellent agreement that Karen should continue a northwestward
motion today toward a break in the subtropical ridge, followed by a
northward motion on Tuesday that would take the center of the
cyclone near or over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in
about 36 hours. Karen is forecast to emerge over the southwestern
Atlantic near 48 hours and then slow down significantly and possibly
even stall or loop several hundred nmi north of Puerto Rico on days
4 and 5 as a large ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies
close to the average of the consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA,
and FSSE.

The upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for the
next 24 hours or so, and I would not be surprised if Karen weakens
to a tropical depression during that time. By 36 hours and beyond,
however, upper-level winds are expected to become much less hostile,
allowing some modest strengthening to occur. By days 4 and 5, Karen
is forecast to move underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which
should allow for more significant intensification to occur. The new
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and
follows the trend of the various intensity consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the southern
Windward Islands through tonight.

2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in
effect. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding are possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.5N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 20.1N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 24.6N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 26.5N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KAREN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 64.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected somewhere within the warning area, within the next
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 64.4 West. Karen is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the
north is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through
tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48
hours due to strong upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165
km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 8 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT HEADING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 64.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 64.8 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the
north is expected by Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea today, and pass
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday
morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north
of Puerto Rico on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by
Tuesday morning.

Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Although deep convection has recently developed near the low-level
swirl seen in early morning visible satellite imagery, the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Karen
has had difficultly finding a closed surface circulation. It is
possible that a center reformation will occur near the new
convection, so the system is still being classified as a tropical
cyclone for now. The aircraft has found believable SFMR winds of
30-35 kt over the eastern portion of the system, which still
supports an initial intensity of 35 kt. Given the current structure
of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should
remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength
is anticipated during that time. It is also possible that Karen
could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already.
Regardless of whether or not Karen is a tropical cyclone when it
passes near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the system is likely
to produce tropical-storm-force winds in squalls and heavy rainfall
over those areas. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast
to become more conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast
calls for gradual strengthening like most of the typically reliable
intensity guidance, however, the confidence in this portion of the
intensity forecast is low.

The initial motion estimate is 335/10 kt. Despite the overall lack
of organization of the system, the track guidance is still in good
agreement on Karen turning northward tonight or early Tuesday into
a weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic caused by
Tropical Storm Jerry to its north. After 72 hours, a deep-layer
ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and
western Atlantic which should slow Karen's northward progress and
could cause the system to essentially stall over the western
Atlantic by the end of the period. The new NHC track forecast is
again close to the previous advisory, and is near the consensus
aids through 96 h. At 120 h, the NHC forecast is south of the
consensus models in deference to the more equatorward position
shown by the ECMWF, but the spread of the guidance by that time
is quite large, and confidence in the track forecast at days 4
and 5 is quite low.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Karen's status as a tropical cyclone, this system
is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall,
flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is
in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.9N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.0N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 17.7N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 19.6N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 21.9N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 25.6N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 27.0N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
200 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 65.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to re in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of Karen in your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of poorly organized Tropical
Storm Karen was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 65.2
West. Karen is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A
turn toward the north is expected by Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean
Sea today, and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the
north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karen could weaken to a tropical depression or degenerate
into an open wave later today or tonight, however, little overall
change in wind speed is expected over the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by
Tuesday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 65.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 65.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected late tonight or early
Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should
continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening,
and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late
tonight or Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western
Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late tonight. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Karen has become increasingly disorganized today. Visible
satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that there is a
broad low-level circulation, but the aircraft struggled to find a
well-defined center. Based on the current lack of organization,
the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. The
environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain quite hostile,
with dry mid-level air and strong northeasterly shear continuing
overnight. After Karen moves north of Puerto Rico over the western
Atlantic, it may find itself in a more favorable upper-level
environment, but given the current structure of the cyclone it
should take some time for any potential re-strengthening to occur.
As a result, the long-range intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous advisory and remains of very low confidence.

Karen is moving northwestward or 335/11 kt. Karen should turn
northward later tonight or early Tuesday toward a weakness in the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Jerry. A
northward to north-northeast motion should then take the storm over
the western Atlantic well to the east of the Bahamas around mid-
week. After that time, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build
over the southeastern United States and far western Atlantic,
which should cause Karen to slow down and become nearly stationary
at days 4 and 5. The track guidance has trended toward Karen
gaining more latitude before slowing, and the new NHC track
forecast as been adjusted accordingly. The latter portion of the
track forecast is still quite uncertain as the dynamical model
guidance and their ensembles still exhibit large spread.

Although Karen in shown to remain a tropical depression as it
passed Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the tropical storm
warning is begin maintained since only a small increase in the
wind speed would make Karen a tropical storm again. In addition,
windward facing areas at high elevation on the islands could
experience winds higher than those shown in the official forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to
Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and
potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.9N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 17.2N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 18.9N 66.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.3N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 23.3N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 26.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...DISORGANIZED KAREN EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 65.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 65.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, and a
northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday
morning and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by early Tuesday. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, and a
northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by early Tuesday. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Deep convection associated with Karen has increased during the past
few hours, but the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the
south of the center due to north-northeasterly shear. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the depression this
evening, and a combination of the flight-level and SFMR data
indicate that winds are just below tropical-storm-force. The
aircraft measured a minimum pressure of about 1008 mb.

Karen is currently situated near the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge, and it is forecast to turn northward on Tuesday
as it passes Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. After that time,
a northward to north-northeastward motion seems likely as the
cyclone moves into a weakness left behind by Tropical Storm Jerry.
However, the models indicate that the trough will not capture Karen,
and instead the cyclone could come to a stop or drift westward by
the weekend as a ridge builds to the north of the system. Although
the models agree on the overall scenario, the details are quite
uncertain and there remains a large spread in the guidance at days 4
and 5. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right
of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
consensus models.

The environment is still quite hostile around Karen with
north-northeasterly shear of about 20 kt currently impacting
the cyclone. However, the upper-level wind pattern is expected to
become more favorable during the next few days, and that could give
it an opportunity to strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slow increase in winds through the forecast period. This forecast is
similar to the previous one, and lies roughly between the
aggressive SHIPS/LGEM models and the HWRF/HMON models which show
little change in intensity during the next several days.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to
Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and
potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.1N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 17.5N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 19.6N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 22.0N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 23.9N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 26.8N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 28.0N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FINDS KAREN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 65.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 65.7 West. The
depression is now moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today. A northward to
north-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over
the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Karen could become a tropical storm again later today.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...KAREN BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 65.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located by the San Juan Doppler radar near latitude 16.8 North,
longitude 65.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today.
A north-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Wednesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or
over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over
the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

During the last pass through Karen's center around 0430 UTC, the Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft reported some believable SFMR winds of
34-35 kt in the southeastern quadrant and an extrapolated central
pressure of 1006 mb. The 925-mb flight-level height had also
decreased by almost 20 meters in about 2 hours, an indication that
the lower pressure estimate was legitimate. Reflectivity and
velocity data from the San Juan NOAA WSR-88D Doppler radar also
enunciate that Karen's inner-core has become better defined over
the past few hours. Satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC were
T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, and T2.4/34 kt and 40 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and
SATCON, respectively. Based on the recon and satellite intensity
data, Karen has re-strengthened to tropical storm status.

The initial motion is now northward or 360/06 kt. Karen's forecast
track hinges heavily on the future intensity and associated vertical
structure of the cyclone. The GFS, GFS-Legacy, UKMET, and HRWF
dynamical models take a much weaker and more vertically shallow
cyclone northeastward after 48 hours and either continue with that
motion through day 5 or dissipate the system. In contrast, the ECMWF
and many of its stronger ensemble members stall Karen around days
3-4 and then turn the somewhat stronger and deeper cyclone westward
to west-southwestward to the south of a building ridge. Given that
Karen is forecast to be stronger and vertically deeper than the
weaker models, the current track forecast leans more toward the
stronger ECMWF and ECMWF-Ensemble model solutions. The new NHC
forecast is to the right of the previous advisory track and slower,
especially on days 3-5, but the new track does not extend as far
east as the weaker GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models or the consensus
models that incorporate those three models.

None of the dynamical models, including the HWRF and HMON hurricane
models, show much in the way of strengthening once Karen moves
north of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands except for the ECMWF model,
despite the very low vertical wind shear conditions that the cyclone
will be moving into by 24 hours and beyond. Given Karen's decent
wind field and vertical structure, the expected low shear
conditions, moist mid-level environment, and SSTs of more than 29
deg C for the next 48 hours or so, forecasting at least slow but
steady strengthening seems to be quite reasonable. By days 3-5, the
mid-level environment dries out significantly, which the weaker
models seem to be keying on. However, if Karen strengthens as
currently expected, then the cyclone's robust circulation should
be able to mix out any dry air intrusions, allowing for at least
additional modest intensification to occur in the 72-120 hour
period. The official intensity forecast is a little above the
previous advisory, and is basically an average of the weaker
dynamical models and the stronger GFS- and ECMWF-based
statistical-dynamical models Decay-SHIPS and LGEM.

Key Messages:

1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and
mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall
and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.8N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 18.1N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 20.1N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 22.6N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 24.6N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 28.0N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 27.7N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...HEAVY RAINS FROM KAREN MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS,
CULEBRA, AND VIEQUES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 65.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 17.2 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue today. A north-northeastward motion is forecast tonight
through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and
then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 65.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A north-northeastward motion
with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight through
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this
afternoon and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1007 mb
(29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that there has been little change in either
the structure or the intensity of Karen since the last advisory.
The broad and elongated low-level center is located to the north of
the strong convection, and the aircraft has reported a central
pressure of 1007 mb and maximum 1500 ft flight-level winds of 35 kt
south of the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for
this advisory.

The initial motion is now 360/7. Karen is in a complex steering
environment that includes a low- to mid-level ridge to the east and
northeast, Tropical Storm Jerry to the north-northwest, and a large
mid- to upper-level trough extending from near Jerry to eastern
Cuba. These weather systems should steer Karen generally northward
today, followed by a north-northeastward motion that should
continue for a couple of days. This motion should bring the center
of Karen near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this
afternoon, then into the open Atlantic tonight. During the 72-120
h period, the large-scale models forecast a low- to mid-level ridge
to build near Karen, which will significantly slow its forward
motion. The new forecast track will continue the trend of the
previous forecast and the ECMWF model in showing the ridge building
enough to turn Karen west-southwestward by 120 h. However, other
models suggest a looping motion or little motion during the 96-120
h, and this part of the forecast track is quite uncertain.

The large-scale models forecast the shear that has been affecting
Karen to diminish during the next couple of days, which should
allow the cyclone to gradually strengthen. From 72-120 h, the
storm is expected to start entraining dry air, which could limit
intensification despite the otherwise favorable shear and sea
surface temperature environment. The new intensity forecast is
unchanged from the previous forecast, and it lies between the
weaker dynamical models and the stronger statistical-dynamical
models.


Key Messages:

1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and
mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall
and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 17.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 19.1N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.6N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 27.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 28.0N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[LarryWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE CENTER REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 66.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 66.0 West. Karen has
moved erratically during the past few hours as the center has
re-formed a little to the west. However, it is expected to resume
a motion toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) this afternoon. A
north-northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is
forecast tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the western
Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. Surface observations
indicate that wind gusts to tropical-storm force are occurring over
portions of the Virgin Islands and southeastern Puerto Rico.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1005 mb
(29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven