ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 20.9W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 20.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
general motion toward the west is expected through Monday, with a
motion toward the west-northwest expected Monday night and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of the depression should pass
well south of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is expected, with the depression forecast to
become a tropical storm on Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Satellite imagery and partial scatterometer overpasses indicate
that the tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic has
developed enough circulation and organized convection to be
designated a tropical depression. The convection is currently
organized into a large band over the western semicircle, with an
additional smaller band to the southeast. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate
from TAFB.

The initial motion is 270/14. A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the depression should steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the center passing
well to the south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Near
the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn
northwestward as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track
guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track is in best
agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model.

The cyclone is forecast to be in a light to moderate easterly shear
environment over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 3-4
days, and there are no obvious negative factors to prevent
strengthening. The intensity forecast thus calls for steady
intensification through 96 h, with the intensity forecast lying near
the upper edge of the guidance from 48-96 h. Some southwesterly
shear may develop near 120 h, so the forecast show little change in
strength from 96-120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 10.8N 20.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 10.8N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 11.1N 25.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 11.8N 28.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 12.6N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 15.5N 41.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 19.0N 45.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 22.2W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 22.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue through this afternoon. A
motion toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression should pass well to
the south of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a
hurricane by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Infrared and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that the
depression is gradually getting better organized, with upper-level
outflow improving in all quadrants. However, the low-level and
mid-level circulations do not appear to be vertically aligned quite
yet, with the mid-level center displaced a little to the west of the
low-level center. As a result, the intensity has been maintained at
30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is 270/13 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the cyclone is expected to steer the system generally
westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 hours or so,
resulting in the center passing well to the south and southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. On days 4 and 5, a motion
toward the northwest is expected as the cyclone begins to move into
a weakness in the ridge. The new track guidance remains tightly
clustered about the previous forecast track, so no significant
changes were required.

The cyclone is forecast to remain in light vertical shear conditions
throughout the 5-day period. That favorable upper-level flow regime
will combine with SSTs near 29 deg C and a moist mid-level
environment to allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen into a
hurricane by Tuesday and be near major hurricane strength by day 4.
The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 10.8N 22.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 11.0N 24.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 11.5N 26.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 12.1N 29.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 12.8N 32.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 16.3N 42.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 19.6N 45.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Corrected typo in discussion and outlook section

...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 24.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 24.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A motion toward the
west-northwest is expected starting tonight, and this is forecast to
continue through the middle of the week. On the forecast track, the
center of the tropical storm should pass well to the south of the
Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lorenzo
is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Yet another tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this one
over the far eastern portion of the basin. The system has been
designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support
tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but
its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB
classification was a little higher.

Recent GMI microwave imagery and ASCAT-C data showed that the
low-level center of Lorenzo is on the north side of most of its deep
convection. While this disorganized structure may limit how quickly
Lorenzo can strengthen in the short-term, the tropical storm is
located within a generally favorable environment for
intensification. All of the intensity guidance shows Lorenzo
becoming a hurricane, but the timing varies from model to model. The
official forecast follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and shows
Lorenzo reaching hurricane status within 48 h. Continued
strengthening is forecast thereafter. No noteworthy changes were
made to the NHC intensity forecast.

The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the
location of Lorenzo's center and its forward speed. The cyclone
has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt.
Very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo
is still forecast to be steered generally westward to
west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over
the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in
the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is
based heavily on HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 11.1N 24.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 11.5N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 12.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 12.5N 31.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 13.1N 34.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 14.6N 39.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 17.1N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...LORENZO STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 25.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 25.5 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated
for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of the
tropical storm will pass well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lorenzo
is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Lorenzo is steadily getting better organized. Visible imagery before
sunset showed that the tropical storm has developed extensive
banding that wraps about 3/4 of the way around the circulation. An
1836 SSMIS overpass also shows this banding, but indicated that the
tropical storm has not developed a tight inner core. Satellite
intensity estimates range from 35 to 47 kt, and the intensity of the
system has been increased to 40 kt.

All indications are that Lorenzo is in a favorable environment for
strengthening, and all of the guidance continues to forecast that it
will become a hurricane during the next few days, perhaps as soon as
tomorrow. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a
45 percent chance of a 25 kt or greater increase in Lorenzo's winds
during the next 24 hours. Since the tropical storm doesn't have a
tight inner-core yet, the NHC forecast isn't quite as bullish, but
still shows steady strengthening, and Lorenzo could become a major
hurricane later this week.

The tropical storm is moving steadily westward with an initial
motion of 275/14. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an
update of the previous one, and no substantial changes were made.
Lorenzo will likely move generally westward to west-northwestward at
a similar forward speed for the next few days, before turning
northwestward over the weekend. The global models are in very good
agreement on this scenario, but do differ on how soon Lorenzo will
turn northwestward. The NHC forecast is based primarily on HCCA, and
is on the left side of the guidance envelope. This is also closer to
the ECMWF and UKMET forecasts which delay the start of Lorenzo's
recurvature a little more than the GFS and its derived models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 11.3N 25.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 11.7N 27.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 12.4N 30.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 13.1N 33.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 13.6N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 15.4N 40.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 18.3N 43.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 21.5N 46.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 26.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 26.7 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west to
west-northwest motion is expected for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Lorenzo is
expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Infrared satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that
convection and banding has been on the increase this evening very
near the the center of Lorenzo, while the existing bands that
extend well away from the center have been growing in size.
This improving organization supports raising the initial intensity
to 45 kt, and this is in agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB. A recent ASCAT-C overpass
sampled tropical-storm-force winds that now extend up to 80 n
mi in the northern semicircle and suggested that the initial wind
speed could be a little conservative.

Lorenzo will be in an environment favorable for intensification for
the next several days. And, given the recent increase in convection
near the storm's center, there is now greater confidence that
Lorenzo could become a hurricane by late tomorrow. If the near-term
forecast trend verifies, then it will raise confidence that
Lorenzo may become a major hurricane in the medium range. Only at
the very end of the forecast period does it appear that the system
will begin to encounter increasing shear and some drier air, which
should limit any further strengthening. The official NHC wind speed
prediction shows intensification a little faster than the last
forecast through the first couple of days, but is near the previous
advisory thereafter. This forecast is very close to the HFIP
corrected-consensus HCCA.

Lorenzo is moving westward at 13 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to
the north of the cyclone will steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward over the next few days. Late in the forecast
period, a break in the ridge is forecast to develop between 40-45W,
which should cause Lorenzo to turn to the northwest. The official
NHC forecast is very close to the previous one, and near the
tightly clustered consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 11.6N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 12.1N 28.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 12.8N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 13.4N 34.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 14.0N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 16.1N 41.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 19.0N 44.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 22.0N 46.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 28.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 28.0 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for
the next couple of days, followed by a turn the northwest on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Lorenzo is forecast to become a hurricane later
today and could become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with
Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with many curved
bands and a newly formed central dense overcast. In fact, an
overnight AMSR2 microwave pass showed that Lorenzo already had a
very small central core. The initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt,
in accordance with the latest TAFB classification.

Conditions seem to be ripe for further intensification given that
the storm is over fairly warm waters, with humid mid-level air, and
weak/moderate shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification index is
giving a 53 percent chance of Lorenzo intensifying 25 kt during the
next 24 hours, which seems very reasonable since it now has a tight
inner core, and after noting the storm just strengthened 25 kt
during the previous 24 hours. Thus the intensity forecast is raised
from the last one, showing the initial period of very quick
strengthening, and is at the upper edge of the guidance. It is
worth noting that all of the global models show Lorenzo becoming a
fairly large and powerful hurricane within the next 5 days, and the
new wind radii forecast reflects this likelihood.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. This general
course is expected for the next couple of days while Lorenzo moves
beneath the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. A break in the
ridge should occur in a few days over the central Atlantic, causing
the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and north-northwestward
over the weekend. The new forecast is shifted slightly northward
in the short term, but is close to the previous NHC prediction
thereafter, closest to the corrected-consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 12.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 12.6N 30.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 13.3N 32.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 13.9N 35.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 14.4N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 17.0N 41.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 20.0N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 23.0N 46.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...LORENZO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 29.3W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 29.3 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A
northwestward motion should begin on Thursday and continue into
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and
Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday, and a major
hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Lorenzo's structure has not changed much during the morning. A
small central dense overcast continues over the center with
multiple curved bands within the circulation. A recent ASCAT pass
showed winds just over 45 kt to the north of the center, but given
sampling considerations, the initial intensity remains 55 kt, which
matches Dvorak classifications provided by TAFB and SAB.

Despite the brief interruption in the strengthening trend,
sufficiently warm waters, low shear, and an ambient moist air mass
should foster intensification during the next several days.
Because Lorenzo has not strengthened further since the previous
advisory, the persistence factor has caused the Rapid
Intensification (RI) Index (a 25-kt increase in 24 hours) to drop
from 53 percent to 23 percent. In addition, the overall guidance
envelope is showing slightly lower peak intensities in 3-4 days.
The NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper edge of the
guidance for much of the forecast period, lying closest to the HWRF
and the Florida State Superensemble. RI is still a possibility, but
as of yet we have not observed a low-level cyan ring in 37-GHz
microwave imagery, which is usually a harbinger of an RI episode.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt.
Lorenzo is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends
from Morocco and Madeira Island westward to 40W. Ridging is
relatively non-existent west of 40W due to a mid-/upper-level low
over the central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Jerry over the western
Atlantic. With this pattern in place, Lorenzo is expected begin
recurving around the ridge axis over the central Atlantic on days
3-5. During that period, the track guidance envelope is bracketed
by the easternmost GFS and westernmost ECMWF models, which are
about 350 nm apart on day 5. This spread isn't too significant,
and the updated NHC track forecast is only shifted slightly
eastward from the previous one, very close to the two corrected
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 12.4N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 12.9N 31.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 14.2N 36.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 15.0N 38.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.0N 41.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 21.1N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 23.9N 45.3W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...LORENZO'S INTENSITY HOLDING STEADY FOR THE MOMENT...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 31.0W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 31.0 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
heading is expected to continue through Thursday. A slower motion
toward the northwest is forecast Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Based on recent microwave imagery and visible satellite loops, it
appears that there's been just enough westerly shear over Lorenzo
to disrupt the inner core and keep the storm from strengthening
through the day. The CDO is slightly offset from the low-level
center, and prominent convective banding is mostly within the
southeastern semicircle. Subjective intensity estimates remain
T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and objective numbers have come up
slightly to around 60 kt. However, since the morning scatterometer
data was running about 10 kt lower than the satellite estimates,
and the overall structure has not changed appreciably, the initial
intensity will remain 55 kt.

A mid-level high centered west of Madeira and the Canary Islands
continues to drive Lorenzo quickly westward, or 285/15 kt. There
has been no change to the track forecast thinking. A break in the
ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to cause Lorenzo to
begin recurving in about 48 hours, with the system ultimately
moving northward by the end of the foreast period. The updated NHC
forecast has only been nudged westward, but this is mainly due to
the slightly faster initial forward motion. Otherwise, the spread
in the guidance is still bounded by the GFS on the right and the
ECMWF on the left, which is mirrored by those models' respective
ensemble members. The official forecast hedges toward the western
side of the guidance, roughly between the HCCA model and the other
consensus aids.

Global model guidance suggests that the westerly shear over Lorenzo
should abate during the next 24 hours, allowing another
intensification phase to begin. Whether or not rapid
intensification occurs is difficult to know at this point until it
becomes clearer if the cyclone can develop a well-defined inner
core. The intensity guidance has decreased further on this cycle,
but this is largely due to the hiatus in the strengthening trend
during the day. There's still plenty of time for more
strengthening to occur, so out of an abundance of caution, I did
not lower the forecast peak intensities that have been shown in the
previous few advisories. As such, the official forecast lies above
nearly all the guidance during the first 2-3 days, and then is
close to the HWRF and HCCA on days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 12.8N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 13.2N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 13.8N 35.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 14.5N 38.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 15.6N 40.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 18.8N 42.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 21.9N 45.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 24.9N 45.3W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...LORENZO RESUMES INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 32.4W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 32.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn to
the northwest is expected Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next few days and
Lorenzo should become a hurricane tonight or Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Over the past several hours, deep convection has increased in
coverage and intensity near Lorenzo's center, with cloud tops now as
cold as -85 degrees Celsius. Some modest northwesterly shear
impacted the cyclone starting early today and lasted through this
evening, but now Lorenzo seems to be overcoming the shear. The
initial intensity has been increased to 60 kt and this is a blend of
the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Recent
scatterometer passes show that the wind radii have continued to
expand, with tropical storm force winds now reaching up to 180 n mi
from the center.

Lorenzo is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge. A break in the ridge is forecast to develop between
40-50W in a few days, which should cause the cyclone to turn to the
northwest. By late in the forecast period, Lorenzo will turn to the
north as it rounds the western periphery of the ridge. This forecast
track scenario is in very good agreement with the numerical models,
and little change was made from the previous official forecast.

The shear that has been occurring over Lorenzo is expected to
decrease through Wednesday, and based on the current convective
trend, strengthening appears likely over the next couple of days.
Dynamical and statistical models are in good agreement on bringing
Lorenzo to hurricane intensity by Wednesday morning, and then
continuing some gradual strengthening through 72 hours. After that
time, the dynamical model intensity forecasts diverge from the
statistical model forecasts. SHIPS and LGEM suggest that Lorenzo
will reach its peak intensity in about 3 or 4 days, and weakening is
possible by day 5. The dynamical models disagree with this scenario,
and the consensus of those models makes Lorenzo a major hurricane in
about 72 hours, with additional strengthening possible through the
end of the forecast period. The official forecast is more in line
with the dynamical guidance, although it is not as high as some of
those solutions late in the period. Due to the divergence in model
intensity forecasts beyond 72 hours, the confidence in the official
forecast at that time is not high.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 13.2N 32.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 14.2N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 15.1N 39.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 16.4N 40.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 19.9N 43.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 23.0N 45.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 26.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...LORENZO BECOMES THE FIFTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 33.9W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 33.9 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward
the northwest is expected by Thursday night.


Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Deep convection has continued to increase in coverage and intensity
near the center of Lorenzo during the past several hours. There have
been no good microwave passes over the cyclone since yesterday,
however, a partial SSMIS pass showed hints that a mid-level eye is
forming. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on
a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB,
and objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. Lorenzo is
the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The SHIPS and DTOPS rapid intensification probability models both
show that there is a greater than 50 percent chance that Lorenzo
will strengthen by 25 kt or more during the next 24 hours. The large
size of the cyclone appears to be the only obvious inhibiting factor
to rapid intensification since the environment is otherwise quite
favorable for continued strengthening. The NHC forecast now shows
Lorenzo becoming a major hurricane in 36 hours, faster than
previously anticipated. By 72 h and beyond, most of the guidance
keeps Lorenzo in a nearly steady state. In reality, most strong
hurricanes have some short-term fluctuations in intensity, but such
fluctuations are nearly impossible to forecast this far out in time.
Regardless of its exact intensity, confidence is high that Lorenzo
will be a large and powerful hurricane over the eastern and central
Atlantic through the rest of this week.

No changes of significance were made to the track forecast. Lorenzo
is still forecast to move west-northwestward for the next day or so,
before turning northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. A turn toward the north is anticipated by the end of the
forecast period. The models are still in fairly good agreement on
the track of the hurricane, and the NHC forecast is between the
consensus aids HCCA and TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 13.6N 33.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 14.0N 36.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 14.7N 38.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 15.9N 40.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 17.5N 41.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 21.1N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 24.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 27.4N 43.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...LORENZO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 35.1W
ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 35.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward
the northwest is expected late Thursday or Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to
become better organized, with a small central convective feature
surrounded by a large complex of outer bands in all quadrants
except the northwest, where some dry air may be entraining.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMMS
satellite consensus technique have increased to near 75 kt, and that
will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The hurricane
currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions.

The initial motion is 285/15. The subtropical ridge to the north
and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the hurricane west-
northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
northwest as a break develops in the ridge between 45W-50W. Lorenzo
is subsequently forecast to turn northward into the break by 96 h
and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h. While the guidance
agrees with this scenario, there is some spread on the longitude of
the recurvature between the easternmost GFS model and the
westernmost ECMWF model. The new forecast lies between these models
in best overall agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus
guidance.

Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear
environment during the next three days, with the only negative
factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air.
The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening,
with rapid strengthening possible during the first 24-36 h. The
new intensity forecast is increased from the previous forecast, and
for the first 36-48 h it lies near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance. The intensity forecast shows little change in strength
between 36-72 h, although some fluctuations in intensity are likely
due to eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After 72 h,
Lorenzo is likely to encounter some southwesterly shear, and thus
some weakening is forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 14.1N 35.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 14.4N 37.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 15.3N 39.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 16.7N 40.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 18.4N 42.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 25.0N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 29.0N 42.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...LORENZO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 36.9W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 36.9 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward
the northwest is expected by Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major
hurricane on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to
become better organized, with the central dense overcast getting
larger while a large complex of outer bands continues in the
southeastern semicircle. In addition, a AMSR-2 overpass near 1530
UTC suggested there is at least a partial eyewall or convective ring
near the center. The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt in
best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus intensity
estimate. The hurricane still shows good cirrus outflow in all
directions, and it still appears some dry air is entraining into the
system in the northwestern quadrant.

The initial motion is now 285/16. There is no change to the track
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The subtropical
ridge to the north and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the
hurricane west-northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a
turn toward the northwest as a break develops in the ridge between
45W-50W. Lorenzo is subsequently forecast to turn northward into
the break by 96 h and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h.
Since the last advisory, the track guidance has shifted a little to
the right after 36 h. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track, but after 36 h it now lies a little to the left of
the center of the guidance envelope.

Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear
environment during the next three days, with the only negative
factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air.
The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening for
the next 36 h or so, but the the chances of rapid intensification
in the various statistical indices have gone down since the previous
advisory. The new intensity forecast will call for 36 more hours
of intensification, and it continues to lie near the upper edge of
the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast follows the general
trend of the guidance in showing little change in strength between
36-96 h, although fluctuations in intensity are likely due to
eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After that time,
Lorenzo is likely to encounter southwesterly shear, and thus some
weakening is forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 14.5N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 15.0N 38.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.1N 40.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 23.0N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 43.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 31.0N 40.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...LORENZO STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 38.1W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 38.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to
the northwest is forecast to occur on Thursday, followed by a turn
to the north by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane on
Thursday, with some additional strengthening possible through
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto



Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

A small eye has been intermittently appearing in infrared satellite
imagery over the past few hours, and a recent WINDSAT microwave
overpass showed that the inner-core of Lorenzo is trying to
consolidate. There is still some dry air wrapping in toward the
center of circulation as seen in an SSMIS overpass at 2020 UTC. This
could be the reason why the hurricane has not been able to develop a
well-defined eye as of yet. An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass this
evening showed a still expanding wind field associated with Lorenzo,
and the 50-kt winds now extend up to 90 n mi from the center in the
northern semicircle. A blend of the subjective intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 85 kt for this
advisory.

Based on the improving inner-core structure, large central dense
overcast, and an expanding cirrus shield around the hurricane, it is
believed that the dry air that has been entrained near the center
will mix out soon. This should allow for the eyewall to completely
develop and Lorenzo should reach major hurricane intensity within
the next 24 hours. Lorenzo will continue over warm waters and in a
light shear environment during the next couple of days, which should
allow for some additional strengthening. By 72 hours, increasing
shear due to west to southwest winds aloft ahead of an approaching
mid-latitude trough should begin to weaken the hurricane. The
official intensity forecast is very near the previous one, and is on
the high end of the guidance through 72 hours.

Lorenzo is moving west-northwest at 13 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge. The model guidance is in very good agreement on a
break developing in the ridge between 45W-50W in the next couple of
days, which should result in a turn to the northwest. From day 3-5,
the cyclone is expected to turn north then northeast around the
periphery of the mid-level ridge to its east. The official forecast
was nudged just a little to the right of the previous one starting
at 36 h and is on the left side of tightly clustered consensus
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 14.7N 38.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 15.2N 39.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 16.8N 41.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 20.4N 43.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 23.8N 43.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 27.5N 42.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 31.9N 39.1W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...LORENZO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 39.3W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 39.3 West. The hurricane
is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). Lorenzo
is forecast to turn toward the northwest and begin moving at a
slightly slower speed later today. A turn toward the north is then
anticipated on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast and Lorenzo is forecast to
become a major hurricane later today or early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Lorenzo's satellite appearance continues to steadily improve. The
cyclone has a large central dense overcast, with outflow established
in all quadrants. The hurricane has at times shown signs of a
developing eye, however, it has been mostly obscured during the last
few hours by expanding cloud tops associated with central (and
likely eyewall) convection. Although the eye is not yet apparent in
geostationary imagery, a 0618 UTC SSMIS overpass showed that Lorenzo
has developed a well-defined mid-level eye. TAFB and SAB Dvorak
classifications both support an intensity of 90 kt but objective
estimates are lower. The intensity of Lorenzo is therefore held at
85 kt as a compromise of the higher subjective and lower objective
assessments, but this could be a little conservative.

The hurricane is still moving west-northwestward, but a turn toward
the northwest is expected later today. Lorenzo has reached a break
in the subtropical ridge to the north and should now begin to gain
latitude at a faster rate. By day 3, the global models show Lorenzo
moving northward along the western periphery of the ridge and by the
end of the period it will likely turn northeastward and accelerate
ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough. While the models still
differ on the details of the forecast, like how fast Lorenzo will be
moving once it turns northward, they all show this general
evolution. The NHC forecast is mostly an update of the previous
advisory and is just west of the center of the guidance envelope.

Lorenzo has several more days during which it could strengthen. The
primary limiting factor appears to be the size of Lorenzo, which is
considerable and is forecast to increase. This will likely only slow
down Lorenzo's strengthening, not prevent it. By 72 h, Lorenzo could
experience an increase in shear, and most of the guidance responds
by forecasting very slow weakening. The official intensity forecast
is generally close to HCCA and IVCN at all lead times and is not
very different from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 15.1N 39.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Shortly after the issuance of the 0900 UTC advisory, Lorenzo's eye
quickly and drastically became more apparent in conventional
satellite imagery. The slightly ragged but clearing eye of the
hurricane is surrounded by very cold cloud tops, and it has become
clear that Lorenzo is rapidly intensifying. A 0900 UTC TAFB Dvorak
classification of 6.0/6.0 (115 kt) was used as the primary basis for
increasing the intensity of Lorenzo. Because objective fixes from
just a few hours ago were much lower, the intensity of the hurricane
has been increased, perhaps conservatively, to 110 kt. Since this is
10 kt above the previous 12-h forecast, a special advisory is
required to update the intensity forecast.

Additional strengthening is possible later today. Earlier intensity
guidance indicated that Lorenzo's intensity should level off in a
day or so, though none of the guidance correctly anticipated the
rate at which the hurricane has strengthened this morning. Now that
the hurricane has a closed eyewall, fluctuations in intensity due to
eyewall replacement cycles are also possible, though this is not
explicitly reflected in the updated forecast. By the end of the
forecast period, the updated NHC forecast is relaxed to the original
forecast and shows some gradual weakening. Further adjustments,
especially at 72 h and beyond, may be required later this morning.

No changes were made to the track forecast, which is based on the
previous regular advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1000Z 15.2N 39.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...LORENZO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 40.2W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 40.2 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Lorenzo
is forecast to turn toward the northwest later today, and this
motion should continue through Friday. A turn toward the north is
expected Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible today,
and fluctuations in intensity are expected tonight through Friday
night.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

A review of microwave satellite imagery from last night suggests
that Lorenzo underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, with the
outer eyewall becoming predominant around 06Z-09Z. Around that
time, the hurricane started to rapidly intensify, with the eye
becoming much better defined in conventional satellite imagery. Raw
Data-T numbers from both subjective and objective versions of the
Dvorak Technique suggest that the maximum winds have increased to
near 115 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory.
The initial wind radii have been revised based on a recently
received scatterometer overpass.

The initial motion is 295/11. Lorenzo is approaching a developing
break in the subtropical ridge caused by a series of mid-latitude
troughs to the northwest of the hurricane, and the track guidance
models are in excellent agreement that Lorenzo should recurve
through the break during the forecast period. There are no
significant changes to the guidance since the last advisory, and
there are no significant changes to the forecast track either.

Data from the SHIPS model suggest that Lorenzo will be in an area
of maximum potential intensities of 125-135 kt for the next 3-4
days. This suggests that the rapid intensification should end in
the next 6-12 h as the actual intensity approaches those speeds.
Fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are
expected during the 12-36 h period. The global models suggest
that Lorenzo will subsequently interact with an upper-level trough
during recurvature, which should cause a period of increased shear
and some weakening of the cyclone around 48 h. By 120 h, the
hurricane should weaken due to movement over colder water and into
strong shear in the mid-latitude westerlies.

While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of
the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central
tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent
times near there being Gabrielle of 1989.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 15.4N 40.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 41.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.2N 43.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 43.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 25.2N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 29.0N 41.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...LARGE AND POWERFUL LORENZO TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...
...SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 40.8W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 40.8 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
possible tonight, and fluctuations in intensity are expected Friday
and Saturday.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo will affect portions of the
northeastern coast of South Americas beginning tonight and affect
portions of the Windward Islands beginning on Friday, These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Lorenzo has continued to intensify this afternoon, as the 20 n mi
wide eye has become better defined and the cloud tops in the
eyewall have gotten colder. Various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates are now in the 115-125 kt range, so
the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 120
kt. The hurricane has excellent outflow in all directions except
to the west, where it is starting to interact with an upper-level
trough.

The hurricane has turned toward the northwest since the last
advisory, with the 12-h average motion now 310/10 kt and the shorter
term motion is even more toward the north. Lorenzo is approaching a
break in the subtropical ridge caused by a series of mid-latitude
troughs to the northwest of the hurricane, and the track guidance
models remain in excellent agreement that Lorenzo should recurve
through the break during the forecast period. After 24-36 h, the
guidance has shifted a little more to the right, and this part of
the new track forecast has been nudged a little to the right.

Data from the SHIPS model suggest that Lorenzo will be in an area
of maximum potential intensities of 125-135 kt for the next 3-4
days. This suggests that the current intensification should end
soon as the actual intensity approaches or reaches those speeds.
Fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are
expected during the 12-24 h period. The global models suggest that
Lorenzo's interaction with the aforementioned upper-level trough
should increase during recurvature, which should cause increased
shear and a gradual weakening of the cyclone. As Lorenzo
subsequently moves northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies,
increased shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should lead to
at least a continued slow weakening. The new intensity forecast
has only minor changes from the previous forecast.

While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of
the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central
tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent
times near there being Gabrielle of 1989.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.5N 40.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 17.6N 41.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 19.6N 43.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 21.3N 43.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 22.9N 43.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 26.5N 42.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 30.5N 39.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 35.5N 35.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL LORENZO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 41.5W
ABOUT 1660 MI...2670 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 41.5 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the
north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn to the northeast
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible
through Friday night. A slow weakening trend is expected over the
weekend.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles (405
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo will affect portions of the
northeastern coast of South America beginning tonight, and
will affect portions of the Windward Islands beginning on Friday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto




Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Lorenzo has intensified even more this evening, with a clear eye
characterized by warm temperatures of up to 17 degrees
Celsius. The eye is now completely surrounded by a ring of
convection with cold cloud tops less than minus 70 degrees Celsius.
The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB,
as well as the objective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT
unanimously support increasing the initial intensity to 125 kt.
Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with tropical storm force winds
extending over 200 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle,
and a cirrus cloud canopy that spans greater than a 10 degree
latitude by 10 degree longitude area.

The initial motion is now north-northwest, or 330/12 kt. Model
guidance is in very good agreement throughout the 5 day period on
the future track of Lorenzo. The hurricane will move through a break
in the subtropical ridge currently to its northwest over the next
couple of days, gradually turning to the north then northeast as it
rounds the periphery of a ridge to its east. Late in the forecast
period, Lorenzo will begin to accelerate as it gets caught in
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The
model guidance made a slight shift to the left since the previous
advisory, but since the same guidance shifted right earlier today, I
did not want to make much of a change to the track. The official
forecast track is very near the previous one, and is now on the
right side of the consensus guidance.

The environment around Lorenzo is expected to change little over
the next day or so. Both dynamical and statistical guidance are
suggesting that the hurricane is nearing peak intensity. Therefore
only fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are
expected through about Friday night. Over the weekend, some moderate
westerly shear ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough could
begin to slowly weaken the cyclone. Late in the forecast period,
the combination of strong upper level southwesterly winds and
cooler sea surface temperatures should cause a faster weakening
trend. The official forecast is essentially an update of the
previous one, and a little higher than most of the guidance through
the first 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 17.6N 41.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 19.1N 42.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 21.0N 43.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 22.7N 43.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 24.4N 43.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 27.8N 41.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 31.8N 39.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 37.5N 33.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...POWERFUL LORENZO MAINTAINING STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 42.1W
ABOUT 1620 MI...2605 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 42.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the
north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible
today. Slow weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the
Windward Islands beginning today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Lorenzo has maintained its impressive structure in satellite imagery
this morning. The hurricane still has a fairly clear eye surrounded
by very cold cloud tops. A 0423 UTC AMSR2 overpass showed a small
break in the deepest convection in the southwest eyewall of the
hurricane, but given how cloud tops have cooled since then, I
suspect that did not last long. Satellite intensity estimates have
not changed substantially since the last advisory, so the initial
intensity remains 125 kt.

The hurricane is moving steadily north-northwestward at 12 kt. The
track guidance is in remarkably good agreement on Lorenzo's track
and confidence in the forecast is high. Lorenzo should turn
northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it
moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the
eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo will
likely accelerate northeastward ahead of mid-latitude trough
approaching from the west. The official track forecast is basically
unchanged since the last advisory and now sits right in the middle
of the guidance envelope.

The NHC intensity forecast is also mostly unchanged since the last
advisory. Although SHIPS diagnostics suggest that moderate
southwesterly shear could soon affect the cyclone, not much change
in strength is anticipated for the next 24 hours since Lorenzo will
be moving over slightly warmer waters and an eyewall replacement
cycle does not seem imminent. Gradual weakening is then anticipated
through early next week due to a modest increase in shear and a
decrease in available ocean heat content. Short-term fluctuations in
intensity related to eyewall replacement cycles are also possible
during that time. The NHC forecast remains on the high side of the
guidance for the first 24 hours, and is close to HCCA after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 18.6N 42.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 42.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 21.8N 43.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 25.1N 43.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 28.7N 41.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 33.3N 37.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 40.0N 30.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 42.9W
ABOUT 1600 MI...2575 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 42.9 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the
north is expected tonight or on Saturday, followed by a turn toward
the north-northeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible
today, and slow weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the
Lesser Antilles beginning later today through Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

The structure of Lorenzo in conventional satellite imagery has
decayed a little since the last advisory, with the eye becoming
less distinct and the eyewall convection becoming more asymmetric.
There is no current microwave imagery to show whether this
weakening might be due to the start of an eyewall replacement
cycle or not. The various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates have decreased a little, so the initial
intensity is reduced to 120 kt. The hurricane has excellent cirrus
outflow in all directions except to the southwest.

The initial motion is 330/12 kt. There is no change in the track
forecast philosophy or the forecast confidence, as Lorenzo should
turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it
moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the
eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo is
expected to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies
ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The new
forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the previous track
based mainly on the initial position, and it lies near the various
consensus models.

Lorenzo is currently passing over a tongue of slightly cooler sea
surface temperatures, and it is forecast to reach slightly warmer
water in 12-24 h. After that, it stays over sea surface
temperatures near 28C through about 72 h. During this time, the
intensity will be controlled mainly by internal eyewall replacement
cycles and some ups and downs in the vertical shear as the hurricane
interacts with a couple of upper-level troughs. The intensity
guidance shows a slow weakening trend during this time, and the NHC
intensity forecast follows this. However, it would not be
surprising to see some fluctuations in intensity occur. After 72 h,
the cyclone will become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and
move over much colder water. This, and the approach of the
aforementioned deep-layer trough, will lead to extratropical
transition that will be underway, but likely not complete, by 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 19.4N 42.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 20.8N 43.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 22.6N 44.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 24.2N 44.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 25.9N 43.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 29.6N 41.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 34.5N 37.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 42.5N 28.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven