BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019
...LORENZO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.3N 29.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 42.3 North, longitude 29.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 km/h). A continued
fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday
morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by
Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will
continue moving away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland
Thursday evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it
approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
WIND: Winds will continue to decrease across the Azores this
morning.
RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of less than 1 inch (25 mm) through this morning.
Isolated storm total amounts of 2 inches (50 mm) are possible in the
western Azores.
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019
Lorenzo passed near Flores in the Azores a few hours ago where
hurricane-force winds, at least in gusts, were observed. Winds
are now decreasing across those islands. The current intensity
estimate, 75 kt, assumes only slow weakening since late yesterday.
The cloud pattern is becoming increasingly asymmetric in
appearance, suggestive that transition to an extratropical cyclone
is well underway. The global models indicate that Lorenzo will soon
become embedded in a frontal zone, and simulated satellite imagery
from the ECMWF and GFS models show an extratropical-looking cloud
pattern later today. The official forecast calls for a gradual
weakening trend over the next couple of days and is above the
intensity guidance. Although the system is forecast to become
extratropical in 12 hours, it is still likely be a fairly vigorous
cyclone when it reaches Ireland late Thursday. After crossing
England, the low is likely to dissipate over continental Europe.
Lorenzo accelerated significantly late Tuesday, and the motion is
rapidly northeastward, or 040/37 kt. Over the next day or so,
the system should continue to move northeastward ahead of a large
mid-tropospheric trough over the north Atlantic. Then, the cyclone
is forecast to turn eastward and a little south of eastward in the
weaker westerly flow ahead of the trough. The official track
forecast is close to the model consensus, but leans a bit toward
the ECMWF forecast.
Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over
the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts from the following agencies:
The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... high-seas/
Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-m ... /bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2
Key Messages:
1. Winds across the Azores will continue to decrease, and watches
and warnings for those islands will likely be discontinued later
today.
2. Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon or evening.
2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 42.3N 29.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 46.4N 24.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/0600Z 51.6N 16.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 03/1800Z 54.3N 11.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0600Z 53.5N 6.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0600Z 51.5N 3.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019
...LORENZO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.3N 29.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 42.3 North, longitude 29.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 km/h). A continued
fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday
morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by
Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will
continue moving away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland
Thursday evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it
approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
WIND: Winds will continue to decrease across the Azores this
morning.
RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of less than 1 inch (25 mm) through this morning.
Isolated storm total amounts of 2 inches (50 mm) are possible in the
western Azores.
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019
Lorenzo passed near Flores in the Azores a few hours ago where
hurricane-force winds, at least in gusts, were observed. Winds
are now decreasing across those islands. The current intensity
estimate, 75 kt, assumes only slow weakening since late yesterday.
The cloud pattern is becoming increasingly asymmetric in
appearance, suggestive that transition to an extratropical cyclone
is well underway. The global models indicate that Lorenzo will soon
become embedded in a frontal zone, and simulated satellite imagery
from the ECMWF and GFS models show an extratropical-looking cloud
pattern later today. The official forecast calls for a gradual
weakening trend over the next couple of days and is above the
intensity guidance. Although the system is forecast to become
extratropical in 12 hours, it is still likely be a fairly vigorous
cyclone when it reaches Ireland late Thursday. After crossing
England, the low is likely to dissipate over continental Europe.
Lorenzo accelerated significantly late Tuesday, and the motion is
rapidly northeastward, or 040/37 kt. Over the next day or so,
the system should continue to move northeastward ahead of a large
mid-tropospheric trough over the north Atlantic. Then, the cyclone
is forecast to turn eastward and a little south of eastward in the
weaker westerly flow ahead of the trough. The official track
forecast is close to the model consensus, but leans a bit toward
the ECMWF forecast.
Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over
the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts from the following agencies:
The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... high-seas/
Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-m ... /bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2
Key Messages:
1. Winds across the Azores will continue to decrease, and watches
and warnings for those islands will likely be discontinued later
today.
2. Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon or evening.
2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 42.3N 29.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 46.4N 24.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/0600Z 51.6N 16.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 03/1800Z 54.3N 11.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0600Z 53.5N 6.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0600Z 51.5N 3.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch