ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT REMAINS VERY LARGE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 43.6W
ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 43.6 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A turn toward the
north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next few days. However, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through the weekend.

A combination of satellite wind data and reports from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Lorenzo remains a large
hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the
Lesser Antilles beginning tonight through Saturday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

The satellite appearance of Lorenzo has degraded further since the
last advisory, with only a hint of an eye still apparent in visible
imagery and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall becoming very
asymmetric in infrared imagery. A recent SSMI/S overpass shows
that the southern portion of the eyewall has eroded, possibly due to
shear or dry air intrusion. The microwave imagery also suggests an
outer convective band is forming, but it is not yet well enough
defined to call it an outer eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates
have continued to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to
110 kt as a blend of the various estimates. The hurricane continues
to have excellent outflow in the northern semicircle.

The initial motion remains 330/12 kt. There is no change in the
track forecast philosophy or the forecast confidence, as Lorenzo
should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few
days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge
centered over the eastern Atlantic. Later in the forecast period,
the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward in the
mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching
from the west. The track guidance for this advisory, while it
remains tightly clustered in direction, is a little slower than the
previous guidance. Based on this, the new forecast track is just a
little slower than the previous forecast.

Lorenzo will be passing over sea surface temperatures of 27-28C for
the next 48-72 h. However, it will be in an environment of moderate
vertical shear due to an upper-level trough not far to the west.
The intensity guidance responds to this by showing gradual
weakening during this time, and the new intensity forecast follows
the trend of the guidance. There is a possibility of fluctuations
in intensity caused by eyewall replacement cycles superimposed on
this weakening trend. After 72 h, the hurricane should encounter
stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler sea surface
temperatures, and eventually merge with the above-mentioned
deep-layer trough. As this occurs, Lorenzo is forecast to undergo
extratropical transition, with this being complete by 120 h.
Current indications from the global models are that Lorenzo will
retain hurricane strength through the transition.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 20.3N 43.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 21.6N 44.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 23.3N 44.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 25.0N 44.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 26.6N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 30.3N 41.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 35.5N 36.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 44.0N 26.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...LORENZO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 44.1W
ABOUT 1565 MI...2520 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 44.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected by Saturday night, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next few days. However, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through the weekend.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that Lorenzo is still a very
large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to
35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Lorenzo's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate this evening.
A series of SSMI and GMI microwave overpasses revealed inner core
erosion, particularly in the south portion. The images also showed
a significant south to north vertical tilt of the cyclone,
indicative of the moderate southwesterly shear undercutting the
impressive upper-tropospheric diffluent flow. A blend of all the
available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, as
well as an earlier SATCON analysis, yields an initial intensity of
105 kt for this advisory.

Lorenzo will remain over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures for
the next 3 days. Nonetheless, the stiff southwesterly shear should
inhibit strengthening, although there is a slight chance of
short-term fluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall replacement
cycles. Beyond the 72 hour period, Lorenzo is expected to encounter
stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler waters, and
undergo extratropical transition as it interacts with a baroclinic
zone moving over the central north Atlantic. The NHC forecast is an
update of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the HFIP
Corrected Consensus and Florida State Superensemble intensity
models.

The aforementioned microwave images also indicate that Lorenzo has
been moving a little to the left of track, and the initial motion is
estimated to be north-northwestward, or 335/8 kt. The song remains
the same, no change in the track forecast philosophy. Lorenzo should
turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it
moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge
anchored over the eastern Atlantic. Around mid-period, Lorenzo is
forecast to accelerate toward the northeast, in the mid-latitude
westerly flow, in response to a deep-layer major shortwave trough
approaching from the north-central Atlantic. The track forecast has
been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one and is close
to the various consensus aids.

The wind radii have been adjusted using 2308 UTC METOP-B
scatterometer data. The forecast wind radii, beyond the 48 hour
period, is based primarily on the RVCN global consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 20.8N 44.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 23.7N 44.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 25.4N 44.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 27.0N 43.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 30.7N 41.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 36.5N 34.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 45.5N 22.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...LARGE LORENZO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 44.8W
ABOUT 1560 MI...2510 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 44.8 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is anticipated today, followed by a turn toward
the north-northeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next few days, however, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through the weekend.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane and hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

Lorenzo's tilt has grown this morning. AMSR2 imagery at 0505 UTC
showed a 20 n mi displacement between the low- and mid-level centers
of the hurricane, a consequence of persistent westerly wind shear.
Satellite-based intensity estimates vary greatly, from 77 to 110 kt,
so the intensity is set to 100 kt as a compromise of all available
data. Despite the decrease in Lorenzo's maximum winds during the
past 24 hours, earlier ASCAT-C data showed that its hurricane-force
wind field has expanded, and now reaches up to 45 n mi to the
northeast of the center.

The lower initial intensity resulted in a slightly lower intensity
forecast through most of the period. The wind shear affecting the
cyclone is forecast to continue, and a slow decrease in Lorenzo's
peak winds is still expected during the next several days. The
official intensity forecast is very near the intensity consensus.
Despite the expected decrease in intensity, the hurricane is not
forecast to decrease in size, and in fact Lorenzo's hurricane-force
wind field could increase further by next week. Because of that,
users are urged to not focus on the exact intensity of Lorenzo since
the cyclone will likely remain a powerful storm well into next week.
By 120 h, all of the global models indicate that Lorenzo will become
post-tropical, and so does the NHC forecast.

The aforementioned microwave data was very helpful in identifying
Lorenzo's center location. The hurricane has continued to move left
of the forecast track, and the initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt.
Despite Lorenzo's recent tendency to move farther west than
anticipated, the hurricane is still forecast to turn northward soon.
After continuing northward and north-northeastward for a day or two,
Lorenzo should accelerate toward the northeast ahead of a deep
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west by mid-week. The NHC
track forecast has been shifted slightly left for the first 48 h to
account for Lorenzo's recent motion, but it is very similar to the
previous forecast at 72 h and beyond. The models are in excellent
agreement for the first 3 days of the forecast but the uncertainty
grows by the end of the period, primarily due to differences in the
forecast forward speed of the cyclone as it recurves and becomes
post-tropical.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 21.4N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 22.7N 44.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 24.5N 44.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 26.0N 44.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 27.6N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 31.5N 40.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 38.0N 32.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 48.0N 19.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...LORENZO TURNS NORTHWARD, STILL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO RADIATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 44.8 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Sunday morning. A turn
toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a
faster motion toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Only very gradual weakening is expected
during the next few days, and Lorenzo is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane when it turns toward northeastward towards the
Azores.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are
expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected
to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg




Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

Lorenzo appears to be in the final stages of an eyewall
replacement. 37-GHz GCOM imagery from overnight suggested that a
smaller inner eyewall was embedded within a larger eye, and the new
eyewall now extends 40-45 n mi from the center of circulation. An
eye has also reappeared in GOES-16 visible and infrared satellite
imagery during the past several hours. Based on Dvorak intensity
estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimate of
T5.3/97 kt, Lorenzo's intensity is still estimated to be 100 kt.

Although the hurricane seems to be wobbling a bit, fixes indicate
that it has generally turned northward with an initial motion of
350/9 kt. The track forecast remains straightforward, with very
little spread among the models and their ensembles. Lorenzo is
expected to be nudged north-northeastward and then northeastward
starting in 36 hours by strong ridging building over the western
Atlantic. The northeastward motion is expected to increase on day
3 when Lorenzo is picked up by a strong deep-layer trough over the
north Atlantic, and that acceleration is forecast to continue
through day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids
and is very similar to the previous forecast.

A little bit of west-southwesterly shear continues over Lorenzo,
but it's not strong enough to disrupt the circulation
significantly. Only a very slow, gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 3 days, matching what is indicated by many of the
intensity models. Extratropical transition is expected to have
begun by day 4 while Lorenzo is moving near the Azores, but that
process is not expected to be complete until day 5. Although
Lorenzo's winds are forecast to decrease a bit during the
extratropical transition due to stronger shear and cold waters, the
cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds through the
end of the forecast period.

Lorenzo's wind field will remain large, and the hurricane-force
wind radii are expected to grow in size during the next couple of
days. In addition, large swells continue to radiate outward away
from the hurricane and will reach much of the western and northern
side of the Atlantic basin in a few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 22.5N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 23.8N 44.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 25.6N 44.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 27.1N 43.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 33.3N 39.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 40.5N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 51.0N 16.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT LORENZO HAS
RESTRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 45.0W
ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located
near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 45.0 West. Lorenzo is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the Azores on
Tuesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next day or so. Lorenzo is expected to
gradually weaken through Tuesday, but it will remain a large and
potent hurricane while it approaches the Azores.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the plane is 950 mb
(28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are
expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected
to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission has
been invaluable in helping us to observe reintensification after
Lorenzo's eyewall replacement. The plane measured a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind of 126 kt and SFMR surface winds as high as 112
kt. In addition, the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate is 114 kt.
These data support increasing the initial intensity to 115 kt, which
makes Lorenzo a category 4 hurricane again. The plane also reported
a circular eye 34 n mi wide and a central pressure around 950 mb.

Lorenzo is moving northward, or 355/9 kt, through a gap in the
subtropical ridge. The western Atlantic ridge is becoming stronger
than the eastern Atlantic ridge, and this should help to nudge
Lorenzo north-northeastward between 24-48 hours. After that
period, a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic should turn
Lorenzo northeastward, with the hurricane's forward motion
accelerating as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.
The updated NHC track forecast has been placed near the HCCA model
and the other consensus aids, which keeps it very close to the
previous official forecast, at least through day 4. Some southward
adjustment of the track was made at day 5 based on the latest
global model guidance.

Fluctuations in Lorenzo's intensity are possible over the next day
or so. However, on the whole, moderate westerly shear and
decreasing oceanic heat content ahead of the hurricane are expected
to contribute to a very gradual weakening trend over the next 3
days. After day 3, Lorenzo is forecast to begin interacting with
an approaching cold front from the northwest, which would start
extratropical transition. The global models indicate that the
transition should be complete soon after 96 hours, so for the
moment the advisory continues to show tropical status on day 4.
Faster weakening is expected during and after extratropical
transition, and the updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered
slightly from the previous forecast on days 4 and 5.

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and
tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should
monitor the progress of the hurricane.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during
the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 23.3N 45.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Special Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...LORENZO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 45.0W
ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 45.0 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the Azores on
Tuesday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is
a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and early Sunday.
Lorenzo is expected to gradually weaken Sunday night through
Tuesday, but it will remain a large and potent hurricane while it
approaches the Azores.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are
expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected
to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto




Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has improved throughout this
evening, and the ring of cloud tops surrounding the eye have
become wider and colder. This has resulted in both subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates increasing to a 6.5 on the
Dvorak scale, indicative of a 125 kt hurricane. Based on this data,
a special advisory is being issued at this time to increase the
initial intensity, and the 12-hour and 24-hour forecast wind
speeds. No other changes were required to the previous track or
intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and
tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should
monitor the progress of the hurricane.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during
the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0000Z 23.8N 45.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Lorenzo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1010 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019


...LORENZO STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Recent satellite data indicate that Lorenzo has continued to
rapidly strengthen to an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane
with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (260 km/h). This
increase in intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at
11 pm AST (0300 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 1010 PM AST...0210 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 45.0W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LORENZO BECOMES THE STRONGEST
HURRICANE THIS FAR NORTH AND EAST IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 44.9W
ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 44.9 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the
northeast by Monday. A faster northeast motion is expected by
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
through Sunday. A weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday
night. However, Lorenzo is expected to be a large and potent
hurricane as is approaches the Azores in a few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are
expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected
to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto



Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

Lorenzo has rapidly strengthened this evening. An eyewall
replacement cycle completed earlier today, with a recent SSMIS
microwave overpass showing that a new eyewall about 30 n mi in
diameter now completely encircles the eye. The cold cloud tops
surrounding the eye have expanded, with a solid ring of temperatures
measuring colder than minus 70 degrees Celsius. In addition, the
eye has cleared, with satellite derived cloud-top temperatures now
above 15 degrees Celsius. Throughout the evening, the objective and
subjective intensity estimates have climbed, with 0130 UTC special
classifications from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent UW-CIMSS ADT
estimate unanimously agreeing on a 140-kt initial intensity. This
makes Lorenzo an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane.

The initial motion is now northward at 9 kt. Lorenzo will be
steered north through a break between two subtropical ridges through
tonight, with a turn to the north-northeast expected on Sunday.
After Sunday, Lorenzo will begin to get caught up in increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This
will cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward through the end
of the forecast period. The official track forecast is essentially
an update of the previous one, and is near the middle of the
consensus aids.

Lorenzo will likely peak in intensity overnight as it remains in the
current favorable environment. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible on Sunday mainly due to eyewall replacement cycles. By
Sunday night, Lorenzo will begin to feel the effects of some
southwesterly shear ahead of the approaching trough, while it also
moves over waters of lower oceanic heat content. These factors
should induce a steady weakening trend through 48 hours. After that
time, SSTs below 26 C should cause a faster weakening trend. By 72
hours, the cyclone will begin interacting with the approaching
trough and an associated cold front, which will begin a transition
to an extratropical low. This transition is forecast to complete by
120 hours, but it could happen a little sooner than that. The
official forecast was increased through the first 48 hours due to
the increase in initial intensity, and then blends to near the
previous official forecast by 72 hours.

With this latest advisory intensity, Lorenzo becomes the strongest
hurricane in history this far north and east in the Atlantic basin.


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and
tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should
monitor the progress of the hurricane.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during
the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 24.2N 44.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 25.5N 44.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 44.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 30.8N 42.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 36.7N 35.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 45.0N 23.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 52.2N 10.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 44.6W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 44.6 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a faster
northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track,
Lorenzo is expected to move near or just west of the Azores late
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Lorenzo is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane as it
approaches the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

The satellite appearance of Lorenzo is not quite as impressive as it
was several hours ago. Although the eye is still very distinct,
the cloud tops are not as cold in the eyewall and there are a few
dry slots evident beyond the inner core. The initial wind speed is
lowered just slightly to 135 kt, but based on the latest satellite
estimates this is probably generous. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later today, and the data they
collect should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's
intensity and structure. Very intense hurricanes like Lorenzo are
usually not able to maintain their intensity for very long. Since
Lorenzo will be moving toward cooler waters and into an environment
of drier air and higher wind shear during the next several days,
steady weakening is forecast. Lorenzo is now expected to become
extratropical by day 4, when the cyclone will be over SSTs colder
than 20 C. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
consensus models, IVCN, IVDR, and HCCA.

Lorenzo is still moving northward at 9 kt through a break in the
Atlantic subtropical ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough currently
over eastern Canada is expected to amplify when it reaches the
central Atlantic, which should cause Lorenzo to accelerate to the
northeast during the next few days. This motion should take the
core of Lorenzo near or just west of the Azores late Tuesday and
Wednesday. After that time, there are significant differences in
the models on whether or not Lorenzo interacts with an extratropical
low over the north Atlantic. The ECMWF and UKMET models show little
interaction with that low and show Lorenzo moving east-northeastward
in the westerlies toward northwestern France, Ireland, and the
United Kingdom. On the other hand, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models
show Lorenzo rotating around the eastern side of the low and
remaining over the Atlantic. The spread in the models is incredibly
large, about 1300 n mi by day 5. Given the high uncertainty at this
time, only small changes were made to the NHC track forecast, and
this one favors the UKMET and ECMWF solutions. However, confidence
in the long-term track is very low and adjustments may be needed
later today.

The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC provided
input that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected
faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme
enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern
portion of the circulation.

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there
should monitor the progress of the hurricane.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 25.1N 44.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 26.4N 44.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 29.9N 42.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 32.2N 40.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 39.4N 32.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 47.8N 20.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0600Z 53.5N 10.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO...
...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 44.4W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.
Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 44.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the
northeast along with an increase in forward speed should occur on
Monday and continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected over the next
few days, but Lorenzo is still expected to be a potent hurricane in
a couple of days.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 275 miles (445
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

Satellite and microwave imagery are indicating that Lorenzo is now
weakening. A recent microwave pass showed a broken eyewall as well
as dry air in the southwestern quadrant. Over the past hour, the eye
has begun to fill in. However, outflow remains excellent and cloud
tops remain very cold near the center of the hurricane. A blend of
the latest CI values from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent
subjective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS suggest the initial
intensity is now 125 kt.

Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo
from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward
and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence is
very high through 72 hours, and the new forecast is in good
agreement with the tightly clustered consensus guidance and the
previous forecast. Beyond 72 hours, the guidance now diverges
significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction
between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone near Greenland
late in the forecast period. The majority of the guidance has
shifted to the west by several hundred miles over the past couple of
runs. However, there remains significant spread between the
operational UKMET/ECMWF which take what's left of Lorenzo toward the
British Isles, and the solutions that absorb the cyclone into the
larger system well over 1000 miles to the west. Based on the recent
shift in the models and the large spread, the official forecast was
only adjusted a little to the left and lies well to the right of the
consensus aids. Needless to say, the forecast track confidence
beyond 72 hours is low at the moment, and may need further
adjustments in the next couple of advisories.

Lorenzo reached its peak intensity last night, and the intensity
guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will steadily
weaken over the next several days due to increasing southwesterly
shear, dry air entrainment, and progressively cooler SSTs. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are still scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later
today, and the data they collect should provide a better assessment
of the hurricane's intensity and structure. In a few days, Lorenzo
will interact with a frontal zone and begin transitioning to an
extratropical cyclone. This transition is expected to be complete by
96 hours. It is important to note that although Lorenzo is
forecast to weaken through the forecast period, the wind field is
expected to expand at the same time, with tropical-storm-force and
50 kt winds forecast to extend over 300 n mi/ 160 n mi respectively
from the center in 72 hours. The latest intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one, and it is near the HFIP corrected
consensus HCCA.

Earlier input from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at
NHC indicates that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected
faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme
enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern
portion of the circulation.

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there
should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be
issued for those islands later today or tonight.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 25.9N 44.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 27.2N 43.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 28.9N 43.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 33.7N 38.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 42.0N 29.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 50.0N 18.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1200Z 54.9N 11.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LORENZO WEAKER BUT STILL A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE...
...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THE AZORES LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 44.2W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.
Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 44.2 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected over the next
couple of days, but Lorenzo is expected to remain a large hurricane
throughout that time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto



Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

The cloud pattern has continued to degrade throughout the day with
cold cloud tops filling in the eye, with a gradual erosion of the
convection over the southwest quadrant. A recent AMSR2 pass confirms
that the eyewall is indeed open on the western side, and suggests
there may be another eyewall replacement cycle occurring. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are currently performing multiple experimental
flights inside and around Lorenzo, and are providing NHC with
valuable data. The wind data from the SFMR are indicating that the
hurricane-force winds extend outward farther than previously
thought, about 60-70 n mi from the center in all quadrants. The
aircraft also reported an adjusted minimum central pressure of 948
mb, a peak flight level wind of 99 kt, and an image capture from an
on-board radar that confirmed the break in the eyewall. The
available objective and subjective intensity estimates range from
102 kt to 114 kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the initial
intensity has been set at 100 kt, but this may be a little generous
given much lower dropsonde wind speeds measured by the aircraft.

Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo
from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward
and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence
remains very high through 48 hours, and the new forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one. By 72 hours, the guidance
continues to diverge significantly, likely due to how they are
handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical
cyclone to its north late in the forecast period. The ECMWF/UKMET do
not have Lorenzo being absorbed into the larger low. Instead, they
track Lorenzo to the east-northeast toward Europe ahead of the
associated upper trough. The rest of the guidance has Lorenzo
absorbed into the low several hundred miles west of the British
Isles. The forecast track confidence remains low beyond 72 hours,
and was nudged just a little to the left from the previous advisory.

The aircraft near-surface dropsonde data suggests that Lorenzo is
moving over cooler waters of 24-25 degrees C, a few degrees cooler
than model guidance indicates, due to the upwelling of the waters
with lower oceanic heat content. The environmental conditions
for the next 48 hours are characterized by moderate southwesterly
shear, decent moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. Due to
the presence of the shear and cooler waters, gradual weakening is
anticipated for the next couple of days. By 72 hours, much stronger
shear and the interaction with the approaching mid-latitude trough
should cause the cyclone to weaken at a faster rate and begin to
transition to an extratropical cyclone. By 96 hours or so,
extratropical transition is expected to be complete. The official
intensity forecast was adjusted lower than the previous one
through 48 hours, and then is similar thereafter. This solution is
near the various multimodel consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there
should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be
issued for those islands later today or tonight.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 26.9N 44.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 28.2N 43.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 30.1N 42.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 32.4N 40.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 35.6N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 44.6N 26.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 52.2N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1800Z 55.0N 15.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 43.5W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued
a Hurricane Watch for the central and western Azores, including the
islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and
Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa
Maria.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas
on Monday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 43.5 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the Azores early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while
it passes near the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
late Tuesday in the Azores.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

There haven't been a lot of changes with Lorenzo this evening, with
a small cloud-filled eye remaining visible and an enormous cloud
shield expanding in the northern semicircle. Satellite intensity
estimates support a somewhat lower intensity than the previous
advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt. It should be
emphasized that even though the peak winds are down since yesterday,
the area of the hurricane-force winds has more than doubled during
that time.

Earlier aircraft data indicated that the large hurricane is
upwelling a significant amount of cooler waters under the storm, and
this is anticipated to cause Lorenzo to slowly weaken during the
next couple of days. While the SSTs drop off considerably after
late tomorrow, which would normally cause faster weakening, most of
the guidance is showing a favorable trough interaction at that time
with strong upper-level divergence. These effects are expected to
offset, and Lorenzo is likely to be a category 1 or 2 hurricane near
the Azores. Little change was made to the previous forecast, except
to raise the intensity a little higher near the Azores after more
heavily weighting the global models, which have been good performers
for this cyclone. The guidance is in very good agreement on Lorenzo
becoming an extratropical cyclone in about 72 hours, and that is
reflected in the latest forecast.

Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a break in the
subtropical ridge. The forecast track confidence remains very high
through 48 hours as the hurricane is accelerated toward the
northeast ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and the new forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one. After that time,
however, there is a very large spread in the guidance caused by
whether Lorenzo is captured by the mid-latitude trough or if it
remains separate. There isn't much change in the newest guidance,
although it should be noted that the 12Z ECMWF solution is pretty
far east of its ensemble mean. The forecast track confidence is
extremely low beyond 72 hours, and the new NHC track was nudged
just a little to the left from the previous advisory, slightly east
of the various consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches
have been issued for the Azores, and these winds could start late
Tuesday or early Wednesday.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 27.6N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 28.9N 42.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 33.9N 38.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 37.5N 34.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 48.0N 22.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0000Z 53.0N 17.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0000Z 54.0N 17.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 43.1W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 43.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while
it passes near the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has generally changed little
during the last several hours. The hurricane continues to maintain
a well-defined inner core with a ragged cloud-filled eye. The
outer bands are well established to the north and east of the
center, but are restricted on the south side of the circulation due
to some southwesterly shear and drier air being wrapped into that
portion of the cyclone. The initial intensity estimate is set at 90
kt based on T5.0/90 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 11 kt through a break in
the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The models generally agree that
Lorenzo should pick up forward speed and move northeastward
during the next day or two as a trough amplifies over the central
Atlantic. This flow should take the core of Lorenzo near or to
the west of the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday.
After that time, the spread in the guidance increases with several
of the models including the GFS, HWRF, and HMON showing Lorenzo
turning north-northeastward or northward as it moves around
the east side of a large extratropical low. The new ECMWF run has
shifted closer to the GFS/HWRF/HMON solutions, but it still is
considerably to the east of those models as it shows less
interaction with the extratropical low. The NHC track forecast has
been adjusted a little to the left to come into better agreement
with the latest consensus aids. Although the spread in the models
is not as large as it was yesterday, the forecast beyond 48 hours is
still of low confidence given the uncertainty in the longer-term
steering flow.

The intensity forecast appears to be more straightforward than the
track forecast. The bulk of the guidance shows the hurricane
maintaining its intensity or weakening slightly during the next day
or two while it remains over relatively warm waters and in moderate
wind shear conditions. It seems likely that Lorenzo will
be a significant hurricane when it passes near the Azores in about
2 days. After that time, more notable weakening should occur due to
a significant drop off in SSTs, drier air, and much stronger shear.
In fact, these conditions should ultimately lead to extratropical
transition, which is expected to be complete by 72 hours.
Dissipation is now predicted to occur by day 5 following the global
model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next few days. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches
are in effect for the Azores, and Hurricane and Tropical Storm
Warnings could be required later today for those islands.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 28.7N 43.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 30.3N 42.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 32.7N 40.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 36.0N 36.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 40.5N 31.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 52.0N 20.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0600Z 57.0N 13.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO MAINTAINS IT STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 42.6W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1685 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the central and western Azores, including the
islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and
Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa
Maria.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 42.6 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected later today, with an increasing forward
speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Wednesday. Lorenzo is
expected to transition to an extratropical low by Thursday.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...VERY LARGE LORENZO HEADING TOWARDS THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 42.1W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located
near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 42.1 West. Lorenzo is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected later tonight, with an increasing forward
speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. A
weakening trend is expected to resume on Tuesday.

Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 310 miles (500
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto



Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

The wind field of Lorenzo continues to expand, with a trio of
scatterometer overpasses showing that tropical-storm-force winds now
extend up to 270 n mi from the center, while hurricane-force winds
can be found up to 90 n mi from the center. A cloud-covered eye has
been apparent throughout the day and cloud-top temperatures
surrounding the eye have remained fairly consistent. The most recent
Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB suggest Lorenzo is maintaining
its strength at 90 kt, which will remain the initial intensity for
this advisory. A drifting NOAA buoy near the eyewall of Lorenzo
recently reported a pressure of 964.8 mb, supporting the minimum
central pressure of 957 mb.

Lorenzo continues moving north-northeastward at 13 kt, around the
northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its southeast. Over
the next couple of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough
amplifying across the central Atlantic. This motion should take the
core of Lorenzo near the western Azores late Tuesday and early
Wednesday. The forecast track confidence remains high through 72
hours. After that time, global models have come into a little better
agreement on the future track of Lorenzo, with a turn to the right
toward Ireland or the U.K. as a weakening extratropical low. The
official forecast track is just a little to the right of the
previous one and lies near the consensus aids.

The environment surrounding Lorenzo is not expected to change much
through tonight, and therefore the intensity should remain fairly
steady. On Tuesday, the hurricane should begin gradually weakening
as drier air entrains into the circulation and the system moves over
progressively cooler waters. By 48 hours, the interaction with the
approaching trough, an associated cold front, and very strong
southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo into an
extratropical low. This transition is expected to be complete by 72
hours. The low is then expected to weaken and dissipate shortly
after 96 hours. The official forecast was increased through
the first 48 hours to reflect a more steady intensity in the near
term, and then is blended close to the previous forecast after that
time.

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are now in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 30.9N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 32.8N 40.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 36.1N 36.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 40.3N 31.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 45.9N 25.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 55.2N 14.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1800Z 56.3N 10.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GROWING IN SIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 41.2W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM WSW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 41.2 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). The hurricane
should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward
speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slight weakening is anticipated before Lorenzo moves
near the Azores, with faster weakening expected on Thursday.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the
Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours
on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large
cloud shield in the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates remain
near 90 kt so that will be the initial wind speed. The initial
wind field has also grown according to the latest scatterometer
data, and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses.

The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned northeastward at
about 17 kt. Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast
during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid- latitude
trough, and the model guidance remains in tight agreement taking the
hurricane near the western Azores. The longer-range future of
Lorenzo is a little clearer tonight as the global models are in much
better agreement on the cyclone turning east- northeastward close to
Ireland and then eastward across Great Britain, dissipating over
western Europe by 96 h. The new forecast is shifted southward, and
is close to a blend of the latest UKMET/ECMWF and GFS solutions.

Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone
moving over progressively cooler waters. Extratropical transition
should occur by 48 hours, and there is unanimous global model
agreement on Lorenzo keeping much of its strength through that time.
Weakening is then anticipated while the low approaches Ireland and
the U.K., although the wind speed forecast at 72 hours is
deceptively low since the radius of maximum winds is possibly
already onshore.

It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on
the eastern side of Lorenzo. The hurricane will be accelerating to
the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days.
Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an
amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called
trapped-wave fetch. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can
be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... high-seas/


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents,
especially across the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 32.0N 41.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 34.1N 39.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 37.8N 34.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 42.9N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 49.0N 21.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...LORENZO HAS WINDS NEAR 100 MPH...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 39.7W
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 39.7 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). The hurricane
should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward
speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the
Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

Lorenzo's eye has become less distinct on satellite images over the
past several hours, but the system remains very well organized with
tightly curved convective bands. The upper-level outflow remains
quite well-defined. The advisory intensity, 85 kt, is a blend of
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with ADT values
from UW-CIMSS. Sea-surface temperatures beneath the cyclone are
likely to fall below 20 deg C within 36 hours, along with a large
increase in vertical shear. Since Lorenzo has such a large
circulation, it will probably be slow to weaken, however. In 48
hours or less, the global models show the system merging with a
frontal zone, indicating the transition to an extratropical
cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the
numerical guidance but still weakens the cyclone below hurricane
strength when it nears Ireland and Great Britain. By 96 hours, the
cyclone should dissipate over Europe.

The hurricane continues to accelerate, and is now moving
northeastward near 19 kt. Continued acceleration on the southeast
and east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough over the central
north Atlantic should occur over the next day or two. In 72 hours
or so, the cyclone is expected to turn east-northeastward while
moving in the westerly flow ahead of the north Atlantic trough.
There is still significant track model divergence around this time,
and the official 3-day forecast is somewhat southeast of the model
consensus. This leans toward the latest ECMWF solution, which
continues to be on the southeast side of the track guidance
envelope.

Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full
information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean
Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... high-seas/


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents,
especially across the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 33.4N 39.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 35.9N 36.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 40.2N 31.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 45.5N 24.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 51.0N 18.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/0600Z 56.5N 8.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...LORENZO MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
EARLY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 37.9W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 37.9 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). The hurricane
should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward
speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores
early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

Lorenzo remains a well organized hurricane this morning as it heads
toward the Azores. The eye has made a reappearance in infrared
satellite imagery, and the cloud tops associated with the
surrounding ring of convection have cooled. The advisory intensity
remains 85 kt, which is the consensus of the latest objective
and subjective satellite intensity estimates that range from 77 to
90 kt. Lorenzo is expected to maintain its intensity today, but it
will be moving over progressively colder waters and into an area of
increasing shear, which should cause gradual weakening by
Wednesday. The global models show the hurricane merging with a
frontal zone, and becoming extratropical in about 36 hours. The
extratropical low should weaken in a couple of days while it moves
near Ireland and Great Britain, and then it is forecast to dissipate
over Europe by 96 hours.

Lorenzo is moving northeastward at 22 kt. The hurricane should
continue to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough
over the central Atlantic during the next day or two. After that
time, the cyclone is predicted to decelerate and turn
east-northeastward or eastward within the low-level westerly flow.
The global model guidance is in excellent agreement through the
first 36-48 hours, and has also come into somewhat better agreement
on the eastward turn later in the period. The updated NHC track has
been adjusted southeastward at 72 hours, but still lies north of the
multi-model consensus. An additional southward and eastward
adjustment of the post-tropical cyclone's track near Ireland
and the United Kingdom may be necessary in future advisories.

Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full
information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean
Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... high-seas/


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 35.2N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 38.0N 34.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 42.8N 28.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 48.5N 21.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/1200Z 53.5N 16.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1200Z 56.0N 7.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN AZORES WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
SOON AS LORENZO MOVES CLOSER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 35.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 35.5 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). A northeastward
motion at an even faster forward speed is expected through Thursday.
The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to
pass near the western Azores late tonight or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). During the past hour,
a wind gust to 38 mph (61 km/h) was reported at the Santa Cruz
Airport on Flores island in the western Azores.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

The eye of Lorenzo, while still evident in both visible and infrared
satellite imagery, has become smaller and slightly less distinct
this afternoon, but the overall structure of the hurricane has not
changed much since the previous advisory. Objective Dvorak
T-numbers crept up this morning when the eye cleared for a couple
of hours and are somewhat higher than the latest subjective
estimates from TAFB and SAB. A blend of these estimates remains
around 85 kt, and this is the value used as the initial wind speed
for this advisory. Lorenzo is heading toward colder waters and an
area of increasing vertical wind shear. However, since the wind
field of the hurricane is quite large, only gradually weakening is
foreast during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Lorenzo
is forecast to merge with a front and become a strong extratropical
low over the northeastern Atlantic. The global models indicate
that the post-tropical low will weaken more quickly when it moves
near Ireland and Great Britain in 2 to 3 days.

Lorenzo continues to accelerate northeastward, with an initial
motion estimate of 040/25 kt. The forward speed of the hurricane
is predicted to increase further overnight and on Wednesday as it
is steered northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the
central Atlantic. By late Thursday, the post-tropical cyclone
should slow down and turn eastward or east-southeastward within the
low-level westerly flow. The track has continued to bend to the
right beyond 48 hours, and the official forecast has once again
been adjusted southward and eastward at that time period. The new
NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest ECMWF model.

Lorenzo is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full
information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following
agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... high-seas/

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-m ... /bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 37.0N 35.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 40.2N 31.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 45.6N 24.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 51.2N 18.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/1800Z 54.4N 13.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1800Z 53.2N 3.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NOW LASHING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AZORES...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AS LORENZO
GROWS LARGER AND ACCELERATES TOWARD THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 32.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should have already been
completed. Seek shelter immediately.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 32.7 West. Lorenzo is
accelerating and is now moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65
km/h). A northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is
expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow
down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores
early Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Lorenzo is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km). During the past hour, a 10-minute average wind of
45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) was reported at the
Santa Cruz Airport on Flores island in the western Azores. A
10-minute average wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (78
km/h) was reported at Horta on Faial island in the central Azores.

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 960 mb (28.35
inches) based on data from a nearby NOAA drifting buoy, which
reported a pressure of 961.5 mb around 0200 UTC.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions
are already occuring across the western and central Azores.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

Lorenzo's convective cloud pattern has eroded significantly during
the past 6 hours, with an eye no longer evident in infrared
satellite imagery. However, a ragged remnant eye feature is still
present in passive microwave imagery, and that data indicates that
the mid- and upper-level circulations are tilted about 15-20 nmi
northeast of the low-level center due to strong southwesterly
vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt. Satellite intensity estimates have
also decreased and now support around 75 kt. However, the intensity
is being maintained at 85 kt due to Lorenzo's faster forward speed,
which is now about 10 kt more than it was on the previous advisory,
offsetting the possible decrease in the tangential winds. The 64-,
50-, and 34-kt wind radii had to once again be expanded in nearly
every quadrant, but especially to the southeast, based on a 2305 UTC
ASCAT-B overpass. The larger wind field is now expected to result in
sustained hurricane-force winds occurring across portions of the
western and central Azores on Wednesday morning.

Despite the hurricane's extremely large size, Lorenzo has continued
to accelerate northeastward and is now moving 045/35 kt. Lorenzo's
forward speed should gradually level off near 40 kt on Wednesday,
and then gradually begin to decrease by Thursday morning when the
cyclone turns more eastward toward Ireland. By late Thursday,
post-tropical Lorenzo is forecast to turn east-southeastward,
crossing Ireland and southern England. The latest NHC model guidance
is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so only minor
tweaks were required, and new advisory lies close to an average of
the various consensus model forecast tracks.

Lorenzo is currently moving over sea-surface temperatures (SST) near
24 deg C, and that isn't taking into account any cold upwelling that
is likely occurring beneath the very large hurricane. With only
colder water ahead of the cyclone, coupled with vertical shear
increasing to more than 40 kt by 12 hours, rapid transition to a
powerful post-tropical/extratropical cyclone is expected shortly
after Lorenzo passes the Azores. However, only gradual weakening is
foreast during the next 24 hours due to baroclinic interaction with
an upper-level trough and frontal system. After that time, a more
rapid rate of weakening is expected when Lorenzo will be moving over
Ireland and England.

Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over
the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts from the following agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... high-seas/

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-m ... /bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane- and tropical-storm-force
winds to the Azores beginning within the next couple of hours, with
those dangerous conditions continuing into Wednesday afternoon.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 39.1N 32.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 42.7N 28.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/0000Z 48.4N 21.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 03/1200Z 52.8N 15.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0000Z 54.1N 10.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0000Z 52.3N .5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart