WPAC: MITAG - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the core is mostly sorted out.

[Tailspin]

looks a close call with the core staying just offshore.

[1900hurricane]

If Mitag manages to stay off Taiwan, it might end up passing very close to Yonaguni, the westernmost of the Ryukyus. They've already had a gust as high as 49 kt there. Yonaguni did measure an 81.1 m/s (158 kt) gust during Super Typhoon Dujuan in 2015.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394 NM SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (AMSI)
REVEALS DISTINCT RAIN BANDS AND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED OFF THE AMSI, A MICROWAVE EYE IN A
PARTIAL 292331Z GMI 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS). LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS BEING PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TY 19W IS TRACKING AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. BY TAU 36, TY 19W WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND GRADUALLY BEGIN
TURNING ONTO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER LAND INTERACTION WITH
TAIWAN SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION. PRIOR TO TAU 36,
LAND INTERACTION WITH COASTAL CHINA, COOL SST, AND HIGH VWS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR-
TERM INTENSITY FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO
CHINA AND TAIWAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG OVERALL
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF RE-CURVATURE BUT ALONG-TRACK
SPEED DIFFERENCES INCREASE AFTER TAU 48, LEADING TO FAIR OVERALL
AGREEMENT IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 19W WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). PRIOR TO TAU
120, TY 19W WILL HAVE COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED INTO A COLD-CORE LOW
AS IT APPROACHES JAPAN. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ALONG-TRACK AND
CROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY, SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT TAU 120 IS 356
NM. FOR THAT REASON, THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ27 KNES 300323
TCSWNP

A. 19W (MITAG)

B. 30/0230Z

C. 22.3N

D. 122.8E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN
LG FOR A DT=5.0 MET=4.5 PT=5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER


TPPN10 PGTW 300551

A. TYPHOON 19W (MITAG)

B. 30/0530Z

C. 22.68N

D. 122.86E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY DG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5 MET 4.5 PT 4.5
DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


STIGSSON

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2019 Time : 054000 UTC
Lat : 22:47:24 N Lon : 123:00:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 964.9mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 4.9 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +8.1C Cloud Region Temp : -57.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 136nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.3 degrees

****************************************************

[1900hurricane]

Based on the gusts I am seeing, 50 kt winds might be just starting to edge into Hateruma, the little island south of Iriomotejima. 34 kt winds look to have encompassed Yonagunijima, Iriomotejima, and Ishigakijima (I'm using 1 minute sustained wind for my radii).

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/e6wdKa6

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS A SMALL RAGGED EYE WITH DISTINCT RAIN BANDS. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED OFF OF MSI. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.5 (77 KTS). LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AS TY 19W GRAZES TAIWAN. THEREFORE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TY 19W IS TRACKING AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TY 19W WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND GRADUALLY
TURN ONTO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER, FRICTION DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 12,
LAND INTERACTION WITH COASTAL CHINA, COOL SST, AND HIGH VWS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
NEAR-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO
CHINA AND TAIWAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL STRONG
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF RE-CURVATURE BUT ALONG-TRACK
SPEED DIFFERENCES INCREASE AFTER TAU 48, LEADING TO FAIR OVERALL
AGREEMENT IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 19W WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). PRIOR TO TAU
120, TY 19W WILL HAVE COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED INTO A COLD-CORE LOW AS
IT APPROACHES JAPAN. THE ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH (360 NM) AT TAU 120 DUE TO TIMING OF CAPTURE IN THE
WESTERLIES. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1178627908895567872

[Hayabusa]

Up to 85 kts, but JMA remains 75 kts
19W MITAG 190930 1200 24.6N 123.0E WPAC 85 966

[1900hurricane]

Obs from Ishigaki, Iriomote, and Hateruma strangely stopped being posted a few hours ago.

[Hayabusa]

2019SEP30 151000 5.2 957.7 94.8 5.2 5.5 5.8 0.5T/hour OFF OFF OFF OFF -16.32 -69.33 EYE 10 IR 9.7 25.81 -122.73 ARCHER HIM-8 36.2

[1900hurricane]

Without the context of surface wind observations, a 965-966 mb pressure through KZC yields about an 85 kt 1 minute Vmax, or about a 75 kt 10 minute Vmax.

[Hayabusa]

JTWC upped to 90 kt
19W MITAG 190930 1800 26.3N 122.7E WPAC 90 962

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 547 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF CORE CONVECTION WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, A 301803Z AMSR2
36GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A
301311Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 99 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A 300938Z SMAP
PASS SHOWED PEAK WINDS OF 89 KNOTS (1-MINUTE AVERAGE). OVERALL,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AMSR2
IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 26C. TY 19W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE.
B. TY 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
12 BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. TY 19W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 60, 19W WILL TRACK OVER THE SEA OF
JAPAN AND WILL COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. SST VALUES WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 24C, WHICH WILL
FURTHER AID IN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 70NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
48, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THIS COLD-CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN HONSHU. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE
OF THIS LOW AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/kycuiqL
https://imgur.com/PMZVxCj

The last frame i can find before it stops.


https://imgur.com/acIzTBN
iriomote trace

[1900hurricane]

And we're decoupled.

[mrbagyo]