WPAC: MITAG - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

19W NINETEEN 190927 1800 14.9N 134.5E WPAC 35 1005
JTWC says TS

[Hayabusa]

Tapah-like track again but stronger?

[euro6208]

Upgraded based in dvorak and ASCAT.

WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 791 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), SUPPORTING
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON THE WIND FIELD
MEASURED IN THE 271233Z METOP-B AND 271159Z METOP-C ASCAT PASSES,
ALONG WITH A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM
PGTW, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASSES WERE UTILIZED TO
ESTIMATE THE WIND RADII. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TS 19W
REMAINS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. HIGHLY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30
CELSIUS PLACE THE SYSTEM IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, TS 19W IS
BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL TAU 60 WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
NORTHWARD AS IT RECURVES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. WITH A
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TS 19W WILL INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KTS
AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TRACK AS DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. HOWEVER,
JGSM REMAINS AN EASTERN OUTLIER WITH A 144 NM SEPARATION FROM THE
CONSENSUS BY TAU 72. THUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 19W WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR
AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL REMAIN
ROBUST, ALLOWING TS 19W TO MAINTAIN A HIGH INTENSITY (95 KTS)
THROUGH TAU 96. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE (DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, COOL SST,
HIGH VWS) AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN, SLOWLY AT FIRST THEN
MORE QUICKLY. PRIOR TO TAU 120, INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL ACCELERATE THE TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INITIATE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT (80 NM SPREAD) BUT TRACK
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO POOR ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT (520 NM
SPREAD).//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS Mitag:

TS 1918 (Mitag)
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 28 September 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 28 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°25' (15.4°)
E132°05' (132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 28 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°55' (16.9°)
E130°00' (130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 29 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°55' (18.9°)
E127°25' (127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°55' (21.9°)
E124°00' (124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 160 km (85 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 1 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°35' (27.6°)
E124°25' (124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N32°30' (32.5°)
E127°10' (127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 3 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N37°25' (37.4°)
E132°30' (132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Storm warning area

[Tailspin]

2019SEP28 000000 2.4 1005.8 +0.0 34.0 2.4 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -4.89 -49.00 CRVBND N/A -3.1 15.25 -132.05 FCST HIM-8 20.5

TROPICAL CYCLONE MITAG
(2019-09-28 01:45:31 UTC)
==========================
JMA:
280000Z 15.4N 132.1E 35KT
(+012H) 16.9N 130.0E 40KT
(+024H) 18.9N 127.4E 50KT
(+048H) 21.9N 124.0E 70KT
(+072H) 27.6N 124.4E 75KT
(+096H) 32.5N 127.2E 70KT
(+120H) 37.4N 132.5E 55KT
NMC:
280000Z 15.4N 132.1E 35KT
(+012H) 17.6N 129.7E 39KT
(+024H) 18.7N 127.3E 45KT
(+036H) 19.9N 125.3E 49KT
(+048H) 21.9N 123.9E 58KT
(+060H) 24.5N 123.5E 68KT
(+072H) 27.4N 123.3E 82KT
(+096H) 32.0N 125.7E 68KT
(+120H) 36.5N 130.6E 58KT
CWB:
280000Z 15.5N 132.2E 35KT
(+012H) 17.0N 129.7E 39KT
(+024H) 18.6N 127.3E 49KT
(+036H) 20.2N 125.4E 58KT
(+048H) 21.9N 123.9E 64KT
(+072H) 27.4N 123.9E 74KT
(+096H) 32.3N 126.7E 68KT
(+120H) 36.5N 131.8E 58KT
KMA:
280000Z 15.4N 132.2E 33KT
(+012H) 16.9N 130.2E 45KT
(+024H) 18.6N 127.2E 52KT
(+036H) 20.1N 125.2E 56KT
(+048H) 22.4N 123.9E 72KT
(+072H) 27.5N 124.0E 78KT
(+096H) 32.5N 126.7E 76KT
(+120H) 37.0N 132.7E 68KT

[mrbagyo]

[Tailspin]

18z

https://imgur.com/t7HWvmN


https://imgur.com/Cvixz2J

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 671 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 272330Z METOP-A PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS REVEAL TWO LARGE BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, ONE FROM THE NORTH AND ONE FROM THE SOUTH. THE
ASCAT AMBIGUITIES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SURROUNDED BY HIGHER WINDS, REVEALING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
BASED ON A 272340Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.6 (37
KTS), AN AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING A LARGE REGION OF
35-40 KT WINDS, AND A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KTS) FROM PGTW, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KTS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AROUND THE SYSTEM. HIGH
(30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) MAKE THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH, TS 19W
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST, TS 19W WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AT TAU
48, THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWARD TRACK AS IT TRANSITS AROUND
THE AXIS OF THE STR. MAINTAINING HIGH SST AND LOW VWS, TS 19W WILL
STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT ADVANCES ALONG THE TRACK, TURNING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD PRIOR TO TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100 KTS WEST OF OKINAWA BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH NOTABLE OUTLIERS TO BOTH THE EAST
AND WEST. SOME UNCERTAINTY MAY BE DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE, RESULTING IN BOTH ALONG- AND CROSS-TRACK
SEPARATION. THUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 19 WILL CONTINUE ALONG A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK AS IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE; HOWEVER, COOLING SST AND INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. UPON ENTERNG THE SEA OF JAPAN AND INTERACTING
WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AS IT
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO TAU 120. ALTHOUGH ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM RECURVING, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACKS, PARTICULARLY ALONG-TRACK. IN ADDITION,
THERE ARE TWO NOTABLE OUTLIERS TO BOTH THE EAST (JGSM) AND WEST
(NAVGEM) OF THE ENVELOPE. AS A RESULT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 280652Z SSMIS 91GHZ REVEAL SPRIAL BANDS OF CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, GIVING GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON A 280402Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS AND A 280710Z AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.9 (43 KTS) THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KTS WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AROUND THE SYSTEM.
HIGH (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) MAKE THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH, TS 19W CONTINUES
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST, TS 19W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AT TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWARD TRACK AS IT TRANSITS AROUND THE AXIS OF THE
STR. MAINTAINING HIGH SST AND LOW VWS, TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT ADVANCES ALONG THE TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH ITS
PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KTS 271NM SOUTHWEST OF JEJU BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH NOTABLE OUTLIERS TO BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 160NM AT TAU 72. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 19 WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE
TURNING SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO A NORTHEAST TRACK AT TAU 96 AS IT ROUNDS
THE STR AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE; HOWEVER,
COOLING SST AND INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. UPON ENTERING THE SEA OF JAPAN AND INTERACTING WITH
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO TAU 120. ALL GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE SYSTEM RECURVING, HOWEVER, THERE IS A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF
314NM. JGSI IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER, MAINTAINING ITS COURSE
RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TRACK. AS A RESULT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Massive shift left from EURO and GFS. Taiwan and Eastern China is now in play.

[1900hurricane]

A bit of subsidence from the big ridge just to the north appears to be suppressing convection some on the north side. That probably won't last too much longer as it begins to move around the western edge and an outflow channel to the north opens. It's almost there now, and once there, it may allow for quicker intensification.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1178020979160813568



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1178023934555557890

[1900hurricane]

On a somewhat related note, I've kinda fallen in love with that SWIR/MLWV combo.

[mrbagyo]

[1900hurricane]

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/WPAC/19W.MITAG/tc_ssmis/composite/20190928.1926.f16.x.composite.19WMITAG.50kts-995mb-180N-1275E.084pc.jpg

Center appears to be just NW of the cold tops.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1178080348409868289

[Tailspin]

Sinking dry air looks too be the culprit,not expecting much from this system.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO A
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD AND SOME FLARING CONVECTION, THE LLCC
IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK, PLACING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KTS (BELOW A SATCON INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 53 KTS) AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY INDICATIONS OF
STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG WITH
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) REMAINS HIGH AT 28-29 CELSIUS, MAINTAINING AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH IS STEERING TS 19W
ALONG A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 19W WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. AROUND TAU 48, THE INTENSITY WILL
PEAK AROUND 80 KTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
TS 19W EXPERIENCES FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND INTERACTION, PASSING
WITHIN 100 NM OF CHINA AROUND TAU 60, AND INCREASING VWS. MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
INCREASING TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 116 NM AT TAU 72 WITH ECMWF
(WEST) AND JGSM (EAST) AS OUTLIERS TO THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THUS,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 19W TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS
INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). COOLING SST AND INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO
ENHANCE THE EROSION OF THE SYSTEM DESPITE PERSISTING FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, LAND INTERACTION WITH KOREA PRIOR TO
TAU 96 WILL CREATE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM.
ETT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT
THE RECURVE OF TS 19W; HOWEVER, THERE ARE SUFFICIENT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND SPEED OF RECURVE AMONG THE MODELS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK AS FAIR.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[Hayabusa]

19W MITAG 190929 0000 18.6N 126.5E WPAC 55 993
Same as JMA's 00Z

On the first JT warning it was calling for a minimal typhoon by today's 6Z let's see if Mitag can do it.